Dataset Information

Prognostic value of a cell cycle progression signature for prostate cancer death in a conservatively managed needle biopsy cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The natural history of prostate cancer is highly variable and it is difficult to predict. We showed previously that a cell cycle progression (CCP) score was a robust predictor of outcome in a conservatively managed cohort diagnosed by transurethral resection of the prostate. A greater need is to predict outcome in patients diagnosed by needle biopsy.

Methods

Total RNA was extracted from paraffin specimens. A CCP score was calculated from expression levels of 31 genes. Clinical variables consisted of centrally re-reviewed Gleason score, baseline prostate-specific antigen level, age, clinical stage, and extent of disease. The primary endpoint was death from prostate cancer.

Results

In univariate analysis (n=349), the hazard ratio (HR) for death from prostate cancer was 2.02 (95% CI (1.62, 2.53), P<10(-9)) for a one-unit increase in CCP score. The CCP score was only weakly correlated with standard prognostic factors and in a multivariate analysis, CCP score dominated (HR for one-unit increase=1.65, 95% CI (1.31, 2.09), P=3 × 10(-5)), with Gleason score (P=5 × 10(-4)) and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) (P=0.017) providing significant additional contributions.

Conclusion

For conservatively managed patients, the CCP score is the strongest independent predictor of cancer death outcome yet described and may prove valuable in managing clinically localised prostate cancer.

SUBMITTER: Cuzick J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3304411 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Optimum management of clinically localised prostate cancer presents unique challenges because of the highly variable and often indolent natural history of the disease. To predict disease aggressiveness, clinicians combine clinical variables to create prognostic models, but the models have limited accuracy. We assessed the prognostic value of a predefined cell cycle progression (CCP) score in two cohorts of patients with prostate cancer.We measured the expression of 31 genes involved in CCP with quantitative RT-PCR on RNA extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumour samples, and created a predefined score and assessed its usefulness in the prediction of disease outcome. The signature was assessed retrospectively in a cohort of patients from the USA who had undergone radical prostatectomy, and in a cohort of randomly selected men with clinically localised prostate cancer diagnosed by use of a transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) in the UK who were managed conservatively. The primary endpoint was time to biochemical recurrence for the cohort of patients who had radical prostatectomy, and time to death from prostate cancer for the TURP cohort.After prostatectomy, the CCP score was useful for predicting biochemical recurrence in the univariate analysis (hazard ratio for a 1-unit change [doubling] in CCP 1·89; 95% CI 1·54-2·31; p=5·6×10(-9)) and the best multivariate analysis (1·77, 1·40-2·22; p=4·3×10(-6)). In the best predictive model (final multivariate analysis), the CCP score and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration were the most important variables and were more significant than any other clinical variable. In the TURP cohort, the CCP score was the most important variable for prediction of time to death from prostate cancer in both univariate analysis (2·92, 2·38-3·57, p=6·1×10(-22)) and the final multivariate analysis (2·57, 1·93-3·43; p=8·2×10(-11)), and was stronger than all other prognostic factors, although PSA concentration also added useful information. Heterogeneity in the hazard ratio for the CCP score was not noted in any case for any clinical variables.The results of this study provide strong evidence that the CCP score is a robust prognostic marker, which, after additional validation, could have an essential role in determining the appropriate treatment for patients with prostate cancer.Cancer Research UK, Queen Mary University of London, Orchid Appeal, US National Institutes of Health, and Koch Foundation.

Project description:Standard clinical parameters fail to accurately differentiate indolent from aggressive prostate cancer. Our previous studies showed that immunohistochemical testing for Ki-67 improved prediction of prostate cancer death in a previous cohort of conservatively treated clinically localized prostate cancer. However there is a need for validation of usage with whole biopsy sections rather than tissue micro-arrays for use in routine diagnostics. Prostate cancer biopsy cases were identified in the UK, between 1990 and 2003, treated conservatively. Tumor extent and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) serum measurements were available. Biopsy cases were centrally reviewed by three uropathologists and Gleason conformed to contemporary ISUP 2014 criteria. Follow-up was through cancer registries up until 2012. Deaths were divided into those from prostate cancer and those from other causes. The percentage of Ki-67 in tumor cells was evaluated by immunohistochemistry on whole biopsy sections and was available for 756 patients. This percentage was used in analysis of cancer specific survival using a Cox proportional hazards model. In univariate analysis, the interquartile hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence intervals) for continuous Ki-67 was 1.68 (1.49, 1.89), χ12 = 47.975, P < 0.001. In grade groups 1 and 2, continuous Ki-67 was a statistically significant predictor of time to death from prostate cancer, HR (95% CI) = 1.97 (1.34, 2.88), χ12 = 9.017, p = 0.003. In multivariate analysis, continuous Ki-67 added significant predictive information to that provided by grade groups, extent of disease and serum PSA, HR (95% CI) = 1.34 (1.16, 1.54), Δχ12 = 13.703, P < 0.001. We now advocate the introduction of Ki-67 as a viable and practicable prognostic biomarker in clinical practice. The association of Ki-67 with mortality was highest in grade groups 1 and 2, showing that Ki-67 can be used as a routine biomarker in patients being considered for active surveillance.