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Impact of blood pressure and blood pressure change during middle age on the remaining lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease: the cardiovascular lifetime risk pooling project.

ABSTRACT: Prior estimates of lifetime risk (LTR) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) examined the impact of blood pressure (BP) at the index age and did not account for changes in BP over time. We examined how changes in BP during middle age affect LTR for CVD, coronary heart disease, and stroke.Data from 7 diverse US cohort studies were pooled. Remaining LTRs for CVD, coronary heart disease, and stroke were estimated for white and black men and women with death free of CVD as a competing event. LTRs for CVD by BP strata and by changes in BP over an average of 14 years were estimated. Starting at 55 years of age, we followed up 61 585 men and women for 700 000 person-years. LTR for CVD was 52.5% (95% confidence interval, 51.3-53.7) for men and 39.9% (95% confidence interval, 38.7-41.0) for women. LTR for CVD was higher for blacks and increased with increasing BP at index age. Individuals who maintained or decreased their BP to normal levels had the lowest remaining LTR for CVD, 22% to 41%, compared with individuals who had or developed hypertension by 55 years of age, 42% to 69%, suggesting a dose-response effect for the length of time at high BP levels.Individuals who experience increases or decreases in BP in middle age have associated higher and lower remaining LTR for CVD. Prevention efforts should continue to emphasize the importance of lowering BP and avoiding or delaying the incidence of hypertension to reduce the LTR for CVD.

SUBMITTER: Allen N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3310202 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact of blood pressure and blood pressure change during middle age on the remaining lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease: the cardiovascular lifetime risk pooling project.

Allen Norrina N Berry Jarett D JD Ning Hongyan H Van Horn Linda L Dyer Alan A Lloyd-Jones Donald M DM

Circulation 20111219 1

<h4>Background</h4>Prior estimates of lifetime risk (LTR) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) examined the impact of blood pressure (BP) at the index age and did not account for changes in BP over time. We examined how changes in BP during middle age affect LTR for CVD, coronary heart disease, and stroke.<h4>Methods and results</h4>Data from 7 diverse US cohort studies were pooled. Remaining LTRs for CVD, coronary heart disease, and stroke were estimated for white and black men and women with death ...[more]

PMID: 22184621

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Project description:ObjectivesThis study was designed to quantify the relationship between the absence of heart failure risk factors in middle age and incident heart failure, heart failure-free survival, and overall survival.BackgroundQuantification of years lived free from heart failure in the context of risk factor burden in mid-life may improve risk communication and prevention efforts.MethodsWe conducted a pooled, individual-level analysis sampling from communities across the United States as part of 4 cohort studies: the Framingham Heart, Framingham Offspring, Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry, and ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) studies. Participants with and without hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or treatment), obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2), or diabetes (fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dl or treatment), and combinations of these factors, at index ages of 45 years and 55 years through 95 years. Competing risk-adjusted Cox models, a modified Kaplan-Meier estimator, and Irwin's restricted mean were used to estimate the association between the absence of risk factors at mid-life and incident heart failure, heart failure-free survival, and overall survival.ResultsFor participants at age 45 years, over 516,537 person-years of follow-up, 1,677 incident heart failure events occurred. Men and women with no risk factors, compared to those with all 3, had 73% to 85% lower risks of incident heart failure. Men and women without hypertension, obesity, or diabetes at age 45 years lived on average 34.7 years and 38.0 years without incident heart failure, and they lived on average an additional 3 years to 15 years longer free of heart failure than those with 1, 2, or 3 risk factors. Similar trends were seen when stratified by race and at index age 55 years.ConclusionsPrevention of hypertension, obesity, and diabetes by ages 45 years and 55 years may substantially prolong heart failure-free survival, decrease heart failure-related morbidity, and reduce the public health impact of heart failure.

Project description:ImportanceHypertension remains the major cardiovascular disease risk factor globally, but variability in measured blood pressure may result in suboptimal management. Whether genetic contributors to elevated blood pressure may complementarily inform cardiovascular disease risk assessment is unknown.ObjectiveTo examine incident cardiovascular disease by blood pressure polygenic risk score independent of measured blood pressures and antihypertensive medication prescriptions.Design, setting, and participantsThe cohort study (UK Biobank) recruited UK residents aged 40 to 69 years between March 2006 and August 2010. Participants without a prior physician diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, including myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure, were included. Excluded were individuals with mismatch between self-reported and genotypically inferred sex, sex aneuploidy, missing genotype rates of 1% or greater, and excess genotypic heterozygosity. Data analyses were performed from September 25, 2021, to July 21, 2022.ExposuresMeasured blood pressure and externally derived blood pressure polygenic risk score stratified by hypertension diagnosis and management, which included normal blood pressure (<130/80 mm Hg without antihypertensives), untreated hypertension (systolic blood pressure ≥130 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥80 mm Hg without antihypertensives), and treated hypertension (current antihypertensives prescriptions).Main outcomes and measuresComposite of first incident myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, or cardiovascular-related death.ResultsOf the 331 078 study participants included (mean [SD] age at enrollment, 56.9 [8.1] years; 178 824 female [54.0%]), 83 094 (25.1%) had normal blood pressure, 197 597 (59.7%) had untreated hypertension, and 50 387 (15.2%) had treated hypertension. Over a median (IQR) follow-up of 11.1 (10.4-11.8) years, the primary outcome occurred in 15 293 participants. Among those with normal blood pressure, untreated hypertension, and treated hypertension, each SD increase in measured systolic blood pressure was associated with hazard ratios of 1.08 (95% CI, 0.93-1.25), 1.20 (95% CI, 1.16-1.23), and 1.16 (95% CI, 1.11-1.20), respectively, for the primary outcome. Among these same categories, each SD increase in genetically predicted systolic blood pressure was associated with increased hazard ratios of 1.13 (95% CI, 1.05-1.20), 1.04 (95% CI, 1.01-1.07), and 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02-1.10), respectively, for the primary outcome independent of measured blood pressures and other covariates. Findings were similar for measured and genetically predicted diastolic blood pressure.Conclusions and relevanceBlood pressure polygenic risk score may augment identification of individuals at heightened cardiovascular risk, including those with both normal blood pressure and hypertension. Whether it may also guide antihypertensive initiation or intensification requires further study.

Dataset Information

Impact of blood pressure and blood pressure change during middle age on the remaining lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease: the cardiovascular lifetime risk pooling project.

Publications

Impact of blood pressure and blood pressure change during middle age on the remaining lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease: the cardiovascular lifetime risk pooling project.

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