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Prediction of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease dementia based upon biomarkers and neuropsychological test performance.

ABSTRACT: The current study tested the accuracy of primary MRI and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker candidates and neuropsychological tests for predicting the conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. In a cross-validation paradigm, predictor models were estimated in the training set of AD (N = 81) and elderly control subjects (N = 101). A combination of CSF t-tau/A?(1-4) ratio and MRI biomarkers or neuropsychological tests (free recall and trail making test B (TMT-B)) showed the best statistical fit in the AD vs. HC comparison, reaching a classification accuracy of up to 64% when applied to the prediction of MCI conversion (3.3-year observation interval, mean = 2.3 years). However, several single-predictor models showed a predictive accuracy of MCI conversion comparable to that of any multipredictor model. The best single predictors were right entorhinal cortex (prediction accuracy = 68.5% (95% CI (59.5, 77.4))) and TMT-B test (prediction accuracy 64.6% (95% CI (55.5, 73.4%))). In conclusion, short-term conversion to AD is predicted by single marker models to a comparable degree as by multimarker models in amnestic MCI subjects.

SUBMITTER: Ewers M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3328615 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease dementia based upon biomarkers and neuropsychological test performance.

Ewers Michael M Walsh Cathal C Trojanowski John Q JQ Shaw Leslie M LM Petersen Ronald C RC Jack Clifford R CR Feldman Howard H HH Bokde Arun L W AL Alexander Gene E GE Scheltens Philip P Vellas Bruno B Dubois Bruno B Weiner Michael M Hampel Harald H

Neurobiology of aging 20101214 7

The current study tested the accuracy of primary MRI and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker candidates and neuropsychological tests for predicting the conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. In a cross-validation paradigm, predictor models were estimated in the training set of AD (N = 81) and elderly control subjects (N = 101). A combination of CSF t-tau/Aβ(1-4) ratio and MRI biomarkers or neuropsychological tests (free recall and trail making test ...[more]

PMID: 21159408

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Project description:BackgroundProgression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia can be predicted by clinical features and a combination of biomarkers may increase the predictive power. In the present study, we investigated whether the combination of olfactory function and plasma neuronal-derived exosome (NDE) Aβ1-42 can best predict progression to AD dementia.Methods87 MCI patients were enrolled and received the cognitive assessment at 2-year and 3-year follow-up to reevaluate cognition. In the meanwhile, 80 healthy controls and 88 AD dementia patients were enrolled at baseline as well to evaluate the diagnose value in cross-section. Olfactory function was evaluated with the sniffin sticks (SS-16) and Aβ1-42 levels in NDEs were determined by ELISA. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the risk factors for cognitive decline in MCI at 2-year and 3-year revisits.ResultsIn the cross cohort, lower SS-16 scores and higher Aβ1-42 levels in NDEs were found in MCI and AD dementia compared to healthy controls. For the longitudinal set, 8 MCI individuals developed AD dementia within 2 years, and 16 MCI individuals developed AD dementia within 3 years. The two parameter-combination of SS-16 scores and Aβ1-42 level in NDEs showed better prediction in the conversion of MCI to AD dementia at 2-year and 3-year revisit. Moreover, after a 3-year follow-up, SS-16 scores also significantly predicted the conversion to AD dementia, where lower scores were associated with a 10-fold increased risk of developing AD dementia (p = 0.006). Similarly, higher Aβ1-42 levels in NDEs in patients with MCI increased the risk of developing AD dementia by 8.5-fold (p = 0.002).ConclusionA combination of two biomarkers of NDEs (Aβ1-42) and SS-16 predicted the conversion of MCI to AD dementia more accurately in combination. These findings have critical implications for understanding the pathophysiology of AD dementia and for developing preventative treatments for cognitive decline.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Predicting progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is an utmost open issue in AD-related research. Neuropsychological assessment has proven to be useful in identifying MCI patients who are likely to convert to dementia. However, the large battery of neuropsychological tests (NPTs) performed in clinical practice and the limited number of training examples are challenge to machine learning when learning prognostic models. In this context, it is paramount to pursue approaches that effectively seek for reduced sets of relevant features. Subsets of NPTs from which prognostic models can be learnt should not only be good predictors, but also stable, promoting generalizable and explainable models. METHODS:We propose a feature selection (FS) ensemble combining stability and predictability to choose the most relevant NPTs for prognostic prediction in AD. First, we combine the outcome of multiple (filter and embedded) FS methods. Then, we use a wrapper-based approach optimizing both stability and predictability to compute the number of selected features. We use two large prospective studies (ADNI and the Portuguese Cognitive Complaints Cohort, CCC) to evaluate the approach and assess the predictive value of a large number of NPTs. RESULTS:The best subsets of features include approximately 30 and 20 (from the original 79 and 40) features, for ADNI and CCC data, respectively, yielding stability above 0.89 and 0.95, and AUC above 0.87 and 0.82. Most NPTs learnt using the proposed feature selection ensemble have been identified in the literature as strong predictors of conversion from MCI to AD. CONCLUSIONS:The FS ensemble approach was able to 1) identify subsets of stable and relevant predictors from a consensus of multiple FS methods using baseline NPTs and 2) learn reliable prognostic models of conversion from MCI to AD using these subsets of features. The machine learning models learnt from these features outperformed the models trained without FS and achieved competitive results when compared to commonly used FS algorithms. Furthermore, the selected features are derived from a consensus of methods thus being more robust, while releasing users from choosing the most appropriate FS method to be used in their classification task.

Project description:BACKGROUND:A previous Cochrane systematic review concluded there is insufficient evidence to support the routine use of 18F-FDG PET in clinical practice in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). OBJECTIVES:To update the evidence and reassess the accuracy of 18F-FDG-PET for detecting people with MCI at baseline who would clinically convert to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia at follow-up. METHODS:A systematic review including comprehensive search of electronic databases from January 2013 to July 2017, to update original searches (1999 to 2013). All key review steps, including quality assessment using QUADAS 2, were performed independently and blindly by two review authors. Meta-analysis could not be conducted due to heterogeneity across studies. RESULTS:When all included studies were examined across all semi-quantitative and quantitative metrics, exploratory analysis for conversion of MCI to AD dementia (n = 24) showed highly variable accuracy; half the studies failed to meet four or more of the seven sets of QUADAS 2 criteria. Variable accuracy for all metrics was also found across eleven newly included studies published in the last 5 years (range: sensitivity 56-100%, specificity 24-100%). The most consistently high sensitivity and specificity values (approximately ?80%) were reported for the sc-SPM (single case statistical parametric mapping) metric in 6 out of 8 studies. CONCLUSION:Systematic and comprehensive assessment of studies of 18FDG-PET for prediction of conversion from MCI to AD dementia reveals many studies have methodological limitations according to Cochrane diagnostic test accuracy gold standards, and shows accuracy remains highly variable, including in the most recent studies. There is some evidence, however, of higher and more consistent accuracy in studies using computer aided metrics, such as sc-SPM, in specialized clinical settings. Robust, methodologically sound prospective longitudinal cohort studies with long (?5 years) follow-up, larger consecutive samples, and defined baseline threshold(s) are needed to test these promising results. Further evidence of the clinical validity and utility of 18F-FDG PET in people with MCI is needed.

Dataset Information

Prediction of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease dementia based upon biomarkers and neuropsychological test performance.

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Prediction of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease dementia based upon biomarkers and neuropsychological test performance.

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