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Concurrent partnerships, acute infection and HIV epidemic dynamics among young adults in Zimbabwe.

ABSTRACT: This paper explores the roles of acute infection and concurrent partnerships in HIV transmission dynamics among young adults in Zimbabwe using realistic representations of the partnership network and all published estimates of stage-specific infectivity. We use dynamic exponential random graph models to estimate partnership network parameters from an empirical study of sexual behavior and drive a stochastic simulation of HIV transmission through this dynamic network. Our simulated networks match observed frequencies and durations of short- and long-term partnerships, with concurrency patterns specific to gender and partnership type. Our findings suggest that, at current behavior levels, the epidemic cannot be sustained in this population without both concurrency and acute infection; removing either brings transmission below the threshold for persistence. With both present, we estimate 20-25% of transmissions stem from acute-stage infections, 30-50% from chronic-stage, and 30-45% from AIDS-stage. The impact of acute infection is strongly moderated by concurrency. Reducing this impact by reducing concurrency could potentially end the current HIV epidemic in Zimbabwe.

SUBMITTER: Goodreau SM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3394592 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Concurrent partnerships, acute infection and HIV epidemic dynamics among young adults in Zimbabwe.

Goodreau Steven M SM Cassels Susan S Kasprzyk Danuta D Montaño Daniel E DE Greek April A Morris Martina M

AIDS and behavior 20120201 2

This paper explores the roles of acute infection and concurrent partnerships in HIV transmission dynamics among young adults in Zimbabwe using realistic representations of the partnership network and all published estimates of stage-specific infectivity. We use dynamic exponential random graph models to estimate partnership network parameters from an empirical study of sexual behavior and drive a stochastic simulation of HIV transmission through this dynamic network. Our simulated networks match ...[more]

PMID: 21190074

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Project description:New HIV infections among sub-Saharan Africa's adolescent girls and young women (AGYW, ages 15-24) greatly exceed those of their male peers. In addition, AGYW tend to acquire HIV at a much earlier age. Understanding the factors associated with HIV infection in AGYW could inform effective prevention and treatment interventions for these populations and their male sexual partners.This qualitative study, conducted October-November 2016, was a follow on to a quantitative survey that sought to characterize male sexual partners and sexual behaviors of sexually active HIV positive AGYW in Zimbabwe. The qualitative study explored sexual behavior experiences and characteristics of male-female partnerships among the same participants. We conducted in-depth interviews with purposively sampled AGYW (16-24 years). Audio recorded qualitative data were transcribed, translated into English, and thematically coded using NVivo.28 AGYW (n = 14 urban, n = 14 rural) took part in the in-depth interviews. 50% were 16-19 years old. Discussions with 10/11 (91%) AGYW who were reportedly infected through sex suggested that they had acquired HIV from their husbands or romantic partners. Accounts also suggested that the age difference between respondents and their male sexual partners was ?5 years. Overall, respondents described two types of male partners: those older (''sugar daddies'', men ?35 years old) and younger (<35 years). Respondents felt unable to suggest condom use to both older and younger partners. Evident in respondents' accounts was a general low HIV risk perception, particularly with younger men, which was largely due to poor HIV knowledge. Discussions suggested that an AGYW's relationship with either male partner was characterized by some form of violence.Discussions highlighted the nature and characteristics of relationships between AGYW and their male sexual partners. Findings could inform interventions to engender risk perception among AGYW, promote female-controlled HIV prevention efforts and, foster risk-reduction among men.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough concurrent sexual partnerships may play an important role in HIV transmission in Africa, the lack of an agreed definition of concurrency and of standard methodological approaches has hindered studies. In a long-standing general population cohort in rural Uganda we assessed the prevalence of concurrency and investigated its association with sociodemographic and behavioural factors and with HIV prevalence, using the new recommended standard definition and methodological approaches.MethodsAs part of the 2010 annual cohort HIV serosurvey among adults, we used a structured questionnaire to collect information on sociodemographic and behavioural factors and to measure standard indicators of concurrency using the recommended method of obtaining sexual-partner histories. We used logistic regression to build a multivariable model of factors independently associated with concurrency.ResultsAmong those eligible, 3,291 (66%) males and 4,052 (72%) females participated in the survey. Among currently married participants, 11% of men and 25% of women reported being in a polygynous union. Among those with a sexual partner in the past year, the proportion reporting at least one concurrent partnership was 17% in males and 0.5% in females. Polygyny accounted for a third of concurrency in men and was not associated with increased HIV risk. Among men there was no evidence of an association between concurrency and HIV prevalence (but too few women reported concurrency to assess this after adjusting for confounding). Regarding sociodemographic factors associated with concurrency, females were significantly more likely to be younger, unmarried, and of lower socioeconomic status than males. Behavioural factors associated with concurrency were young age at first sex, increasing lifetime partners, and a casual partner in the past year (among men and women) and problem drinking (only men).ConclusionsOur findings based on the new standard definition and methodological approaches provide a baseline for measuring changes in concurrency and HIV incidence in future surveys, and a benchmark for other studies. As campaigns are now widely conducted against concurrency, such surveys and studies are important in evaluating their effectiveness in decreasing HIV transmission.

Dataset Information

Concurrent partnerships, acute infection and HIV epidemic dynamics among young adults in Zimbabwe.

Publications

Concurrent partnerships, acute infection and HIV epidemic dynamics among young adults in Zimbabwe.

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