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Can falls risk prediction tools correctly identify fall-prone elderly rehabilitation inpatients? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Falls of elderly people may cause permanent disability or death. Particularly susceptible are elderly patients in rehabilitation hospitals. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify falls prediction tools available for assessing elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched six electronic databases using comprehensive search strategies developed for each database. Estimates of sensitivity and specificity were plotted in ROC space graphs and pooled across studies. Our search identified three studies which assessed the prediction properties of falls prediction tools in a total of 754 elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals. Only the STRATIFY tool was assessed in all three studies; the other identified tools (PJC-FRAT and DOWNTON) were assessed by a single study. For a STRATIFY cut-score of two, pooled sensitivity was 73% (95%CI 63 to 81%) and pooled specificity was 42% (95%CI 34 to 51%). An indirect comparison of the tools across studies indicated that the DOWNTON tool has the highest sensitivity (92%), while the PJC-FRAT offers the best balance between sensitivity and specificity (73% and 75%, respectively). All studies presented major methodological limitations. CONCLUSIONS: We did not identify any tool which had an optimal balance between sensitivity and specificity, or which were clearly better than a simple clinical judgment of risk of falling. The limited number of identified studies with major methodological limitations impairs sound conclusions on the usefulness of falls risk prediction tools in geriatric rehabilitation hospitals.

SUBMITTER: da Costa BR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3398864 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Can falls risk prediction tools correctly identify fall-prone elderly rehabilitation inpatients? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

da Costa Bruno Roza BR Rutjes Anne Wilhelmina Saskia AW Mendy Angelico A Freund-Heritage Rosalie R Vieira Edgar Ramos ER

PloS one 20120717 7

<h4>Background</h4>Falls of elderly people may cause permanent disability or death. Particularly susceptible are elderly patients in rehabilitation hospitals. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify falls prediction tools available for assessing elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>We searched six electronic databases using comprehensive search strategies developed for each database. Estimates of sensitivity and specificity were plotted in ROC ...[more]

PMID: 22815914

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Project description:OBJECTIVE: We conducted a study to develop an assessment sheet for fall prediction in stroke inpatients that is handy and reliable to help ward staff to devise a fall prevention strategy for each inpatient immediately upon admission. METHODS: The study consisted of three steps: (1) developing a data sampling form to record variables related to risk of falls in stroke inpatients and conducting a follow-up survey for stroke inpatients from their admission to discharge by using the form; (2) carrying out analyses of characteristics of the present subjects and selecting variables showing a high hazard ratio (HR) for falls using the Cox regression analysis; (3) developing an assessment sheet for fall prediction involving variables giving the integral coefficient for each variable in accordance with the HR determined in the second step. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: (1) Subjects of the present survey were 704 inpatients from 17 hospitals including 270 fallers. (2) We selected seven variables as predictors of the first fall: central paralysis, history of previous falls, use of psychotropic medicines, visual impairment, urinary incontinence, mode of locomotion and cognitive impairment. (3) We made 960 trial models in combination with possible coefficients for each variable, and among them we finally selected the most suitable model giving coefficient number 1 to each variable except mode of locomotion, which was given 1 or 2. The area under the ROC curve of the selected model was 0.73, and sensitivity and specificity were 0.70 and 0.69, respectively (4/5 at the cut-off point). Scores calculated from the assessment sheets of the present subjects by adding coefficients of each variable showed normal distribution and a significantly higher mean score in fallers (4.94 +/- 1.29) than in non-fallers (3.65 +/- 1.58) (P = 0.001). The value of the Barthel Index as the index of ADL of each subject was indicated to be in proportion to the assessment score of each subject. CONCLUSION: We developed an assessment sheet for fall prediction in stroke inpatients that was shown to be available and valid to screen inpatients with risk of falls immediately upon admission.

Project description:Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (CoP) motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS); and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM) CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ) were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24), prospective all fallers (42), prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple), and prospective non-fallers (47). Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity-0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity-2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity) and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for older people at risk of multiple falls.

Project description:BackgroundFalls may cause elderly people to be bedridden, requiring professional intervention; thus, fall prevention is crucial. The use of electronic health records (EHRs) is expected to provide highly accurate risk assessment and length-of-stay data related to falls, which may be used to estimate the costs and benefits of prevention. However, no studies to date have investigated the extent to which hospital stays could be shortened through fall avoidance resulting from the use of prediction tools.ObjectiveWe first estimated the extended length of hospital stay caused by falls among elderly inpatients. Next, we developed a model that predicts falls using clinical text as input and evaluated its accuracy. Finally, we estimated the potentially shortened hospital stay that would be made possible by appropriate interventions based on the prediction model.MethodsPatients aged 65 years or older were selected as subjects, and the EHRs of 1728 falls and 70,586 nonfalls were subjected to analysis. The extended-stay lengths were estimated using propensity score matching of 49 associated variables. Bidirectional encoder representations from transformers and bidirectional long short-term memory methods were used to predict falls from clinical text. The estimated length of stay and the outputs of the prediction model were used to determine stay reductions.ResultsThe extended length of hospital stay due to falls was estimated to be 17.8 days (95% CI 16.6-19.0), which dropped to 8.6 days when there were unobserved covariates at an odds ratio of 2.0. The accuracy of the prediction model was as follows: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.851; F-value, 0.165; recall, 0.737; precision, 0.093; and specificity, 0.839. When assuming interventions with 25% or 100% effectiveness against cases where the model predicted a fall, the stay reduction was estimated at 0.022 and 0.099 days/day, respectively.ConclusionsThe accuracy of the prediction model using clinical text is considered to be higher than the prediction accuracy of conventional assessments. However, our model's precision remained low at 9.3%. This may be due, in part, to the inclusion of cases in which falls did not occur because of preventative interventions during hospitalization. Nonetheless, it is estimated that interventions for cases when falls were predicted will reduce medical costs by 886 Yen/day (~US $6.50/day) of intervention, even if the preventative effect is 25%. Limitations include the fact that these results cannot be extrapolated to short- or long-term hospitalization cases, and that this was a single-center study.

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Can falls risk prediction tools correctly identify fall-prone elderly rehabilitation inpatients? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

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Can falls risk prediction tools correctly identify fall-prone elderly rehabilitation inpatients? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

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