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Fall Risk Assessment Tools for Elderly Living in the Community: Can We Do Better?

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Falls are a common, serious threat to the health and self-confidence of the elderly. Assessment of fall risk is an important aspect of effective fall prevention programs. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS:In order to test whether it is possible to outperform current prognostic tools for falls, we analyzed 1010 variables pertaining to mobility collected from 976 elderly subjects (InCHIANTI study). We trained and validated a data-driven model that issues probabilistic predictions about future falls. We benchmarked the model against other fall risk indicators: history of falls, gait speed, Short Physical Performance Battery (Guralnik et al. 1994), and the literature-based fall risk assessment tool FRAT-up (Cattelani et al. 2015). Parsimony in the number of variables included in a tool is often considered a proxy for ease of administration. We studied how constraints on the number of variables affect predictive accuracy. RESULTS:The proposed model and FRAT-up both attained the same discriminative ability; the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for multiple falls was 0.71. They outperformed the other risk scores, which reported AUCs for multiple falls between 0.64 and 0.65. Thus, it appears that both data-driven and literature-based approaches are better at estimating fall risk than commonly used fall risk indicators. The accuracy-parsimony analysis revealed that tools with a small number of predictors (~1-5) were suboptimal. Increasing the number of variables improved the predictive accuracy, reaching a plateau at ~20-30, which we can consider as the best trade-off between accuracy and parsimony. Obtaining the values of these ~20-30 variables does not compromise usability, since they are usually available in comprehensive geriatric assessments.

SUBMITTER: Palumbo P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4696849 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Fall Risk Assessment Tools for Elderly Living in the Community: Can We Do Better?

Palumbo Pierpaolo P Palmerini Luca L Bandinelli Stefania S Chiari Lorenzo L

PloS one 20151230 12

<h4>Background</h4>Falls are a common, serious threat to the health and self-confidence of the elderly. Assessment of fall risk is an important aspect of effective fall prevention programs.<h4>Objectives and methods</h4>In order to test whether it is possible to outperform current prognostic tools for falls, we analyzed 1010 variables pertaining to mobility collected from 976 elderly subjects (InCHIANTI study). We trained and validated a data-driven model that issues probabilistic predictions ab ...[more]

PMID: 26716861

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Project description:About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls.The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up.FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject's fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators.The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the Brier score was 0.174. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated statistical significance of miscalibration.FRAT-up is a web-based tool for evaluating the fall risk of people aged 65 or up living in the community. Validation results of fall risks computed by FRAT-up show that its performance is comparable to externally validated state-of-the-art tools. A prototype is freely available through a web-based interface.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01331512 (The InChianti Follow-Up Study); http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01331512 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6UDrrRuaR).

Project description:Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (CoP) motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS); and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM) CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ) were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24), prospective all fallers (42), prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple), and prospective non-fallers (47). Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity-0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity-2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity) and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for older people at risk of multiple falls.

Project description:BackgroundFalls in older adults are a critical public health problem. As a means to assess fall risks, free-living digital biomarkers (FLDBs), including spatiotemporal gait measures, drawn from wearable inertial measurement unit (IMU) data have been investigated to identify those at high risk. Although gait-related FLDBs can be impacted by intrinsic (e.g., gait impairment) and/or environmental (e.g., walking surfaces) factors, their respective impacts have not been differentiated by the majority of free-living fall risk assessment methods. This may lead to the ambiguous interpretation of the subsequent FLDBs, and therefore, less precise intervention strategies to prevent falls.MethodsWith the aim of improving the interpretability of gait-related FLDBs and investigating the impact of environment on older adults' gait, a vision-based framework was proposed to automatically detect the most common level walking surfaces. Using a belt-mounted camera and IMUs worn by fallers and non-fallers (mean age 73.6 yrs), a unique dataset (i.e., Multimodal Ambulatory Gait and Fall Risk Assessment in the Wild (MAGFRA-W)) was acquired. The frames and image patches attributed to nine participants' gait were annotated: (a) outdoor terrains: pavement (asphalt, cement, outdoor bricks/tiles), gravel, grass/foliage, soil, snow/slush; and (b) indoor terrains: high-friction materials (e.g., carpet, laminated floor), wood, and tiles. A series of ConvNets were developed: EgoPlaceNet categorizes frames into indoor and outdoor; and EgoTerrainNet (with outdoor and indoor versions) detects the enclosed terrain type in patches. To improve the framework's generalizability, an independent training dataset with 9,424 samples was curated from different databases including GTOS and MINC-2500, and used for pretrained models' (e.g., MobileNetV2) fine-tuning.ResultsEgoPlaceNet detected outdoor and indoor scenes in MAGFRA-W with 97.36[Formula: see text] and 95.59[Formula: see text] (leave-one-subject-out) accuracies, respectively. EgoTerrainNet-Indoor and -Outdoor achieved high detection accuracies for pavement (87.63[Formula: see text]), foliage (91.24[Formula: see text]), gravel (95.12[Formula: see text]), and high-friction materials (95.02[Formula: see text]), which indicate the models' high generalizabiliy.ConclusionsEncouraging results suggest that the integration of wearable cameras and deep learning approaches can provide objective contextual information in an automated manner, towards context-aware FLDBs for gait and fall risk assessment in the wild.

Project description:This study aimed to examine the predictive validity of two internationally well-known instruments, the Modified Home Falls and Accidents Screening Tool (Modified HOME FAST) and the Modified Home Falls and Accidents Screening Tool-Self Report (Modified HOME FAST-SR), and the newly developed Thai Home Falls Hazard Assessment Tool (Thai-HFHAT) (69 items) in predicting falls among older Thai adults. It also aimed to examine the predictive validity of the two abbreviated versions (44 and 27 items) of the Thai-HFHAT, which were developed post hoc to accommodate older adults' limited literacy and poor vision and to facilitate the identification of high-impact home fall hazards that are prevalent in the Thailand context. A prospective cohort study was conducted among 450 participants aged 60 years and above who were assessed by the aforementioned tools at baseline, for which data on fall incidence were then collected during the one-year follow-up. The Cox proportional hazard model was applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs); then, Harrell's C-statistics and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to identify the best cutoff point, sensitivity and specificity for each instrument. The results showed that the fall hazard rate was 2.04 times per 1,000 person-days. Taking into account both the predictive validity and applicability, the Thai-HFHAT (44 items) was found to be the most suitable screening tool due to its highest sensitivity and specificity (93% and 72%) at the cutoff score of 18. In conclusion, our study showed that these internationally validated home fall hazard assessment tools were quite applicable for Thailand, but further tailoring the tools into a specific local context yielded even more highly valid tools in predicting fall risk among older Thai adults. Although these findings were well reproducible by inferring from the internal validation results, further external validation in the independent population is necessary.

Dataset Information

Fall Risk Assessment Tools for Elderly Living in the Community: Can We Do Better?

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Fall Risk Assessment Tools for Elderly Living in the Community: Can We Do Better?

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