Dataset Information

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions--an alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: a practical zero-emissions scenario.

ABSTRACT: Following Part 1, a comparison of CO(2)-emissions pathways between "zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)" and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 °C above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO(2) emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint.

SUBMITTER: Matsuno T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3422689 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions--an alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: a practical zero-emissions scenario.

Matsuno Taroh T Maruyama Koki K Tsutsui Junichi J

Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and biological sciences 20120101 7

Following Part 1, a comparison of CO(2)-emissions pathways between "zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)" and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 °C above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clar ...[more]

PMID: 22850728

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Project description:Due to the rapid economic growth and the heavy reliance on fossil fuels, China has become one of the countries with the highest sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, which pose a severe challenge to human health and the sustainable development of social economy. In order to cope with the serious problem of SO2 pollution, this study attempts to explore the spatial temporal variations of industrial SO2 emissions in China utilizing the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) nighttime stable light (NSL) data. We first explored the relationship between the NSL data and the statistical industrial SO2 emissions at the provincial level, and confirmed that there was a positive correlation between these two datasets. Consequently, 17 linear regression models were established based on the NSL data and the provincial statistical emissions to model the spatial-temporal dynamics of China's industrial SO2 emissions from 1997 to 2013. Next, the NSL-based estimated results were evaluated utilizing the prefectural statistical industrial SO2 emissions and emission inventory data, respectively. Finally, the distribution of China's industrial SO2 emissions at 1 km spatial resolution were estimated, and the temporal and spatial dynamics were explored from multiple scales (national scale, regional scale and scale of urban agglomeration). The results show that: (1) The NSL data can be successfully applied to estimate the dynamic changes of China's industrial SO2 emissions. The coefficient of determination (R2) values of the NSL-based estimation results in most years were greater than 0.6, and the relative error (RE) values were less than 10%, when validated by the prefectural statistical SO2 emissions. Moreover, compared with the inventory emissions, the adjusted coefficient of determination (Adj.R-Square) reached 0.61, with the significance at the 0.001 level. (2) During the observation period, the temporal and spatial dynamics of industrial SO2 emissions varied greatly in different regions. The high growth type was largely distributed in China's Western region, Central region, and Shandong Peninsula, while the no-obvious-growth type was concentrated in Western region, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan and Middle south of Liaoning. The high grade of industrial SO2 emissions was mostly concentrated in China's Eastern region, Western region, Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou and Shandong Peninsula, while the low grade mainly concentrated in China's Western region, Middle south of Liaoning and Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan. These results of our research can not only enhance the understanding of the spatial-temporal dynamics of industrial SO2 emissions in China, but also offer some scientific references for formulating feasible industrial SO2 emission reduction policies.

Dataset Information

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions--an alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: a practical zero-emissions scenario.

Publications

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions--an alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: a practical zero-emissions scenario.

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