Dataset Information

Extremes of temperature, oxygen and blooms in the Baltic sea in a changing climate.

ABSTRACT: In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

SUBMITTER: Neumann T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3428485 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Extremes of temperature, oxygen and blooms in the Baltic sea in a changing climate.

Neumann Thomas T Eilola Kari K Gustafsson Bo B Müller-Karulis Bärbel B Kuznetsov Ivan I Meier H E Markus HE Savchuk Oleg P OP

Ambio 20120901 6

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that t ...[more]

PMID: 22926880

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Project description:Dense blooms of filamentous cyanobacteria are recurrent phenomena in the Baltic Sea, with occasional negative effects on the surrounding ecosystem, as well as on tourism, human health, aquaculture, and fisheries. Establishing a climate service is therefore suggested; including multi-method observations of cyanobacteria biomass, biodiversity, and biogeography, in correspondence to biotic and abiotic factors. Three different approaches were compared for determination of spatial and temporal variability and trends of the blooms; 1) microscopy-based long-term data, 2) satellite remote sensing, and 3) phycocyanin fluorescence mounted on a merchant vessel. Firstly, microscopy-based data on cyanobacteria biomass from the period 2000-2020 showed that the toxin producing genus Nodularia and non-toxic Aphanizomenon both had summer means of 15 µg C L-1, while Dolichospermum was less dominant with a mean of 8 µg C L-1. Some years also the Kattegat was affected by cyanobacteria blooms, likely transported here by ocean currents. Secondly, the satellite remote sensing time series for the period 2002-2020 indicated that near surface blooms were most frequent in the Northern Baltic Proper and that near surface blooms have increased in the Bothnian Sea, starting later in the season than in the Baltic Proper. The largest extents (i.e., total area covered) were observed in 2005, 2008, and 2018. Thirdly, phycocyanin fluorescence from a flow through sensor mounted on a merchant vessel was used as a proxy for cyanobacteria biomass and correlated to cyanobacteria biomass estimated by microscopy. However, the satellite remote sensing data on surface accumulations showed little resemblance to the data on cyanobacteria biomass based on water sampling and microscopy, interpreted as an effect of methods. Sensors on satellites mainly detect surface accumulations of cyanobacteria while the microscopy data was based on samples 0-10 m, thereby comprising a larger community. Data from satellite remote sensing of cyanobacteria was correlated to the phycocyanin fluorescence indicating that similar bio-optical properties are observed. Finally, results from a downscaled ocean climate model (NEMONordic) were used to produce future scenarios for temperature and salinity, which directly affects cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic Sea, supposedly by increasing in abundance and change in species composition. Short-term forecasts can be used together with observations for early warning of cyanobacteria blooms, and we suggest an internationally coordinated cyanobacteria observation and warning system for the Baltic Sea area.

Dataset Information

Extremes of temperature, oxygen and blooms in the Baltic sea in a changing climate.

Publications

Extremes of temperature, oxygen and blooms in the Baltic sea in a changing climate.

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