Project description:Ecosystem carbon carrying capacity (CCC) is determined by prevailing climate and natural disturbance regimes, conditions that are projected to change significantly. The interaction of changing climate and its effects on disturbance regimes is expected to affect forest regeneration and growth, which may diminish forest carbon (C) stocks and uptake. We modeled landscape C dynamics over 590 years along the latitudinal gradient of the U.S. Sierra Nevada Mountains under climate and area burned by large wildfires projected by late 21st century. We assumed climate and wildfire stabilize at late-21st century conditions (2090-2100) to facilitate analysis of lags between warming and changing CCC. We show that compared with historical (1980-2010) climate and wildfire conditions, projected scenarios would drive a significant decrease of up to 73% in mean total ecosystem carbon (TEC) by the end of the 590-year simulation. Tree regeneration failure due to intensified growing season dryness and increased area burned would substantially decrease forested area, transitioning the system from C sink to source. Our results demonstrate the potential for a lower CCC in the system due to extensive vegetation type conversion from forest to non-forest types, and suggest a decline in the contribution of Sierra Nevada forests to U.S. C sink.
Project description:We introduce Global Positioning System (GPS) Imaging, a new technique for robust estimation of the vertical velocity field of the Earth's surface, and apply it to the Sierra Nevada Mountain range in the western United States. Starting with vertical position time series from Global Positioning System (GPS) stations, we first estimate vertical velocities using the MIDAS robust trend estimator, which is insensitive to undocumented steps, outliers, seasonality, and heteroscedasticity. Using the Delaunay triangulation of station locations, we then apply a weighted median spatial filter to remove velocity outliers and enhance signals common to multiple stations. Finally, we interpolate the data using weighted median estimation on a grid. The resulting velocity field is temporally and spatially robust and edges in the field remain sharp. Results from data spanning 5-20?years show that the Sierra Nevada is the most rapid and extensive uplift feature in the western United States, rising up to 2?mm/yr along most of the range. The uplift is juxtaposed against domains of subsidence attributable to groundwater withdrawal in California's Central Valley. The uplift boundary is consistently stationary, although uplift is faster over the 2011-2016 period of drought. Uplift patterns are consistent with groundwater extraction and concomitant elastic bedrock uplift, plus slower background tectonic uplift. A discontinuity in the velocity field across the southeastern edge of the Sierra Nevada reveals a contrast in lithospheric strength, suggesting a relationship between late Cenozoic uplift of the southern Sierra Nevada and evolution of the southern Walker Lane.
Project description:In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.
Project description:Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) has experienced rapid population declines and is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in the United States. Whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California represents the southernmost end of the species' distribution and, like other portions of its range, faces threats from an introduced pathogen, native bark beetles, and a rapidly warming climate. Beyond these chronic stressors, there is also concern about how this species will respond to acute stressors, such as drought. We present patterns of stem growth from 766 large (average diameter at breast height >25 cm), disease-free whitebark pine across the Sierra Nevada before and during a recent period of drought. We contextualize growth patterns using population genomic diversity and structure from a subset of 327 trees. Sampled whitebark pine generally had positive to neutral stem growth trends from 1970 to 2011, which was positively correlated with minimum temperature and precipitation. Indices of stem growth during drought years (2012 to 2015) relative to a predrought interval were mostly positive to neutral at our sampled sites. Individual tree growth response phenotypes appeared to be linked to genotypic variation in climate-associated loci, suggesting that some genotypes can take better advantage of local climatic conditions than others. We speculate that reduced snowpack during the 2012 to 2015 drought years may have lengthened the growing season while retaining sufficient moisture to maintain growth at most study sites. Growth responses may differ under future warming, however, particularly if drought severity increases and modifies interactions with pests and pathogens.
Project description:Sierra Nevada mountain range (southern Spain) hosts a high number of endemic plant species, being one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in the Mediterranean basin. The high-mountain meadow ecosystems (borreguiles) harbour a large number of endemic and threatened plant species. In this data paper, we describe a dataset of the flora inhabiting this threatened ecosystem in this Mediterranean mountain. The dataset includes occurrence data for flora collected in those ecosystems in two periods: 1988-1990 and 2009-2013. A total of 11002 records of occurrences belonging to 19 orders, 28 families 52 genera were collected. 73 taxa were recorded with 29 threatened taxa. We also included data of cover-abundance and phenology attributes for the records. The dataset is included in the Sierra Nevada Global-Change Observatory (OBSNEV), a long-term research project designed to compile socio-ecological information on the major ecosystem types in order to identify the impacts of global change in this area.
Project description:Forest ecosystems can act as sinks of carbon and thus mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions. When forests are actively managed, treatments can alter forests carbon dynamics, reducing their sink strength and switching them from sinks to sources of carbon. These effects are generally characterized by fast temporal dynamics. Hence this study monitored for over a decade the impacts of management practices commonly used to reduce fire hazards on the carbon dynamics of mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Soil CO2 efflux, carbon pools (i.e. soil carbon, litter, fine roots, tree biomass), and radial tree growth were compared among un-manipulated controls, prescribed fire, thinning, thinning followed by fire, and two clear-cut harvested sites. Soil CO2 efflux was reduced by both fire and harvesting (ca. 15%). Soil carbon content (upper 15 cm) was not significantly changed by harvest or fire treatments. Fine root biomass was reduced by clear-cut harvest (60-70%) but not by fire, and the litter layer was reduced 80% by clear-cut harvest and 40% by fire. Thinning effects on tree growth and biomass were concentrated in the first year after treatments, whereas fire effects persisted over the seven-year post-treatment period. Over this period, tree radial growth was increased (25%) by thinning and reduced (12%) by fire. After seven years, tree biomass returned to pre-treatment levels in both fire and thinning treatments; however, biomass and productivity decreased 30%-40% compared to controls when thinning was combined with fire. The clear-cut treatment had the strongest impact, reducing ecosystem carbon stocks and delaying the capacity for carbon uptake. We conclude that post-treatment carbon dynamics and ecosystem recovery time varied with intensity and type of treatments. Consequently, management practices can be selected to minimize ecosystem carbon losses while increasing future carbon uptake, resilience to high severity fire, and climate related stresses.
Project description:Wildfires are becoming more frequent in parts of the globe, but predicting where and when wildfires occur remains difficult. To predict wildfire extremes across the contiguous United States, we integrate a 30-yr wildfire record with meteorological and housing data in spatiotemporal Bayesian statistical models with spatially varying nonlinear effects. We compared different distributions for the number and sizes of large fires to generate a posterior predictive distribution based on finite sample maxima for extreme events (the largest fires over bounded spatiotemporal domains). A zero-inflated negative binomial model for fire counts and a lognormal model for burned areas provided the best performance. This model attains 99% interval coverage for the number of fires and 93% coverage for fire sizes over a six year withheld data set. Dryness and air temperature strongly predict extreme wildfire probabilities. Housing density has a hump-shaped relationship with fire occurrence, with more fires occurring at intermediate housing densities. Statistically, these drivers affect the chance of an extreme wildfire in two ways: by altering fire size distributions, and by altering fire frequency, which influences sampling from the tails of fire size distributions. We conclude that recent extremes should not be surprising, and that the contiguous United States may be on the verge of even larger wildfire extremes.
Project description:This study employs a fully coupled meteorology-chemistry-snow model to investigate the impacts of light-absorbing particles (LAPs) on snow darkening in the Sierra Nevada. After comprehensive evaluation with spatially and temporally complete satellite retrievals, the model shows that LAPs in snow reduce snow albedo by 0.013 (0-0.045) in the Sierra Nevada during the ablation season (April-July), producing a midday mean radiative forcing of 4.5 W m-2 which increases to 15-22 W m-2 in July. LAPs in snow accelerate snow aging processes and reduce snow cover fraction, which doubles the albedo change and radiative forcing caused by LAPs. The impurity-induced snow darkening effects decrease snow water equivalent and snow depth by 20 and 70 mm in June in the Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep habitat. The earlier snowmelt reduces root-zone soil water content by 20%, deteriorating the forage productivity and playing a negative role in the survival of bighorn sheep.
Project description:In this data paper, a dataset of passerine bird communities is described in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high mountain located in southern Spain. The dataset includes occurrence data from bird surveys conducted in four representative ecosystem types of Sierra Nevada from 2008 to 2015. For each visit, bird species numbers as well as distance to the transect line were recorded. A total of 27847 occurrence records were compiled with accompanying measurements on distance to the transect and animal counts. All records are of species in the order Passeriformes. Records of 16 different families and 44 genera were collected. Some of the taxa in the dataset are included in the European Red List. This dataset belongs to the Sierra Nevada Global-Change Observatory (OBSNEV), a long-term research project designed to compile socio-ecological information on the major ecosystem types in order to identify the impacts of global change in this area.
Project description:We describe Yersinia pestis minimum infection prevalence in fleas collected from Tamias spp. chipmunks in the Sierra Nevadas (California, USA) during 2013-2015. Y. pestis-positive fleas were detected only in 2015 (year of plague epizootic), mostly in T. speciosus chipmunks at high-elevation sites. Plague surveillance should include testing vectors for Y. pestis.