Project description:BACKGROUND: Models of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology that provide realistic quantitative predictions of likely epidemiological outcomes of existing vector control strategies have the potential to assist in planning for the control and elimination of malaria. This work investigates the applicability of mathematical modelling of malaria transmission dynamics in Rachuonyo South, a district with low, unstable transmission in the highlands of western Kenya. METHODS: Individual-based stochastic simulation models of malaria in humans and a deterministic model of malaria in mosquitoes as part of the OpenMalaria platform were parameterized to create a scenario for the study area based on data from ongoing field studies and available literature. The scenario was simulated for a period of two years with a population of 10,000 individuals and validated against malaria survey data from Rachuonyo South. Simulations were repeated with multiple random seeds and an ensemble of 14 model variants to address stochasticity and model uncertainty. A one-dimensional sensitivity analysis was conducted to address parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: The scenario was able to reproduce the seasonal pattern of the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and patent infections observed in an all-age cohort of individuals sampled monthly for one year. Using an EIR estimated from serology to parameterize the scenario resulted in a closer fit to parasite prevalence than an EIR estimated using entomological methods. The scenario parameterization was most sensitive to changes in the timing and effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and the method used to detect P. falciparum in humans. It was less sensitive than expected to changes in vector biting behaviour and climatic patterns. CONCLUSIONS: The OpenMalaria model of P. falciparum transmission can be used to simulate the impact of different combinations of current and potential control interventions to help plan malaria control in this low transmission setting. In this setting and for these scenarios, results were highly sensitive to transmission, vector exophagy, exophily and susceptibility to IRS, and the detection method used for surveillance. The level of accuracy of the results will thus depend upon the precision of estimates for each. New methods for analysing and evaluating uncertainty in simulation results will enhance the usefulness of simulations for malaria control decision-making. Improved measurement tools and increased primary data collection will enhance model parameterization and epidemiological monitoring. Further research is needed on the relationship between malaria indices to identify the best way to quantify transmission in low transmission settings. Measuring EIR through mosquito collection may not be the optimal way to estimate transmission intensity in areas with low, unstable transmission.
Project description:The success of mosquito-based malaria control is dependent upon susceptible bionomic traits in local malaria vectors. It is crucial to have accurate and reliable methods to determine mosquito species composition in areas subject to malaria. An unexpectedly diverse set of Anopheles species was collected in the western Kenyan highlands, including unidentified and potentially new species carrying the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. This study identified 2,340 anopheline specimens using both ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer region 2 and mitochondrial DNA cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 loci. Seventeen distinct sequence groups were identified. Of these, only eight could be molecularly identified through comparison to published and voucher sequences. Of the unidentified species, four were found to carry P. falciparum by circumsporozoite enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and polymerase chain reaction, the most abundant of which had infection rates comparable to a primary vector in the area, Anopheles funestus. High-quality adult specimens of these unidentified species could not be matched to museum voucher specimens or conclusively identified using multiple keys, suggesting that they may have not been previously described. These unidentified vectors were captured outdoors. Diverse and unknown species have been incriminated in malaria transmission in the western Kenya highlands using molecular identification of unusual morphological variants of field specimens. This study demonstrates the value of using molecular methods to compliment vector identifications and highlights the need for accurate characterization of mosquito species and their associated behaviors for effective malaria control.
Project description:Epidemics of malaria in the East African highlands in the last 2 decades have often been associated with climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, there are other factors associated with malaria risk and there is increased interest in the influences of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, on East African rainfall. This study explores the relationship between IOD and the number of malaria patients in 7 hospitals from 2 districts in the western Kenyan highlands, controlling for the effects of ENSO. We examined temporal patterns (1982-2001) in the number of malaria cases in relation to the dipole mode index (DMI), defined as the difference in sea surface temperature anomaly between the western (10 degrees S-10 degrees N, 50 degrees-70 degrees E) and eastern (10 degrees S-0 degrees, 90 degrees-110 degrees E) tropical Indian Ocean. We used Poisson regression models, adjusted for ENSO index Niño 3 region (NINO3), seasonal and interannual variations. The number of malaria patients per month increased by 3.4%-17.9% for each 0.1 increase above a DMI threshold (3-4 months lag). Malaria cases increased by 1.4%-10.7% per month, for each 10 mm increase in monthly rainfall (2-3 months lag). In 6 of 7 places, there was no evidence of an association between NINO3 and the number of malaria cases after adjusting for the effect of DMI. This study suggests that the number of malaria cases in the western Kenyan highlands increases with high DMI in the months preceding hospital visits.
Project description:IntroductionTools that allow for in silico optimization of available malaria control strategies can assist the decision-making process for prioritizing interventions. The OpenMalaria stochastic simulation modeling platform can be applied to simulate the impact of interventions singly and in combination as implemented in Rachuonyo South District, western Kenya, to support this goal.MethodsCombinations of malaria interventions were simulated using a previously-published, validated model of malaria epidemiology and control in the study area. An economic model of the costs of case management and malaria control interventions in Kenya was applied to simulation results and cost-effectiveness of each intervention combination compared to the corresponding simulated outputs of a scenario without interventions. Uncertainty was evaluated by varying health system and intervention delivery parameters.ResultsThe intervention strategy with the greatest simulated health impact employed long lasting insecticide treated net (LLIN) use by 80% of the population, 90% of households covered by indoor residual spraying (IRS) with deployment starting in April, and intermittent screen and treat (IST) of school children using Artemether lumefantrine (AL) with 80% coverage twice per term. However, the current malaria control strategy in the study area including LLIN use of 56% and IRS coverage of 70% was the most cost effective at reducing disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over a five year period.ConclusionsAll the simulated intervention combinations can be considered cost effective in the context of available resources for health in Kenya. Increasing coverage of vector control interventions has a larger simulated impact compared to adding IST to the current implementation strategy, suggesting that transmission in the study area is not at a level to warrant replacing vector control to a school-based screen and treat program. These results have the potential to assist malaria control program managers in the study area in adding new or changing implementation of current interventions.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Increasing pyrethroid resistance in malaria vectors has been reported in western Kenya where long lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are the mainstays of vector control. To ensure the sustainability of insecticide-based malaria vector control, monitoring programs need to be implemented. This study was designed to investigate the extent and distribution of pyrethroid resistance in 4 Districts of western Kenya (Nyando, Rachuonyo, Bondo and Teso). All four Districts have received LLINs while Nyando and Rachuonyo Districts have had IRS campaigns for 3-5 years using pyrethroids. This study is part of a programme aimed at determining the impact of insecticide resistance on malaria epidemiology. METHODS:Three day old adult mosquitoes from larval samples collected in the field, were used for bioassays using the WHO tube bioassay, and mortality recorded 24 hours post exposure. Resistance level was assigned based on the 2013 WHO guidelines where populations with <90% mortality were considered resistant. Once exposed, samples were identified to species using PCR. RESULTS:An. arabiensis comprised at least 94% of all An. gambiae s.l. in Bondo, Rachuonyo and Nyando. Teso was a marked contrast case with 77% of all samples being An. gambiae s.s. Mortality to insecticides varied widely between clusters even in one District with mortality to deltamethrin ranging from 45-100%, while to permethrin the range was 30-100%. Mortality to deltamethrin in Teso District was?<?90% in 4 of 6 clusters tested in An arabiensis and <90% in An. gambiae s.s in 5 of 6 clusters tested. To permethrin, mortality ranged between 5.9-95%, with <90% mortality in 9 of 13 and 8 of 13 in An. arabiensis and An. gambiae s.s. respectively. Cluster specific mortality of An. arabiensis between permethin and deltamethrin were not correlated (Z?=?2.9505, P?=?0.2483). CONCLUSION:High levels of pyrethroid resistance were observed in western Kenya. This resistance does not seem to be associated with either species or location. Insecticide resistance can vary within small geographical areas and such heterogeneity may make it possible to evaluate the impact of resistance on malaria and mosquito parameters within similar eco-epidemiological zones.
Project description:BackgroundMalaria vector control has been implemented chiefly through indoor interventions targeting primary vectors resulting in population declines-pointing to a possible greater proportional contribution to transmission by secondary malaria vectors with their predominant exophagic and exophilic traits. With a historical focus on primary vectors, there is paucity of data on secondary malaria vectors in many countries in Africa. This study sought to determine the species compositions and bionomic traits, including proportions infected with Plasmodium falciparum and phenotypic insecticide resistance, of secondary vectors in three sites with high malaria transmission in Kisumu County, western Kenya.MethodsCross-sectional sampling of adult Anopheles was conducted using indoor and outdoor CDC light traps (CDC-LT) and animal-baited traps (ABTs) in Kakola-Ombaka and Kisian, while larvae were sampled in Ahero. Secondary vectors captured were exposed to permethrin using WHO bioassays and then analyzed by ELISA to test for proportions infected with P. falciparum sporozoites. All Anopheles were identified to species using morphological keys with a subset being molecularly identified using ITS2 and CO1 sequencing for species identification.ResultsTwo morphologically identified secondary vectors captured-An. coustani and An. pharoensis-were determined to consist of four species molecularly. These included An. christyi, An. sp. 15 BSL-2014, an unidentified member of the An. coustani complex (An. cf. coustani) and a species similar to that of An. pharoensis and An. squamosus (An. cf. pharoensis). Standardized (Anopheles per trap per night) capture rates demonstrate higher proportions of secondary vectors across most trapping methods-with overall indoor and outdoor CDC-LTs and ABT captures composed of 52.2% (n = 93), 78.9% (n = 221) and 58.1% (n = 573) secondary vectors respectively. Secondary vectors were primarily caught outdoors. The overall proportion of secondary vectors with P. falciparum sporozoite was 0.63% (n = 5), with the unidentified species An. cf. pharoensis, determined to carry Plasmodium. Overall secondary vectors were susceptible to permethrin with a > 99% mortality rate.ConclusionsGiven their high densities, endophily equivalent to primary vectors, higher exophily and Plasmodium-positive proportions, secondary vectors may contribute substantially to malaria transmission. Unidentified species demonstrate the need for further morphological and molecular identification studies towards further characterization. Continued monitoring is essential for understanding their temporal contributions to transmission, the possible elevation of some to primary vectors and the development of insecticide resistance.
Project description:Asymptomatic malaria infections represent a major challenge in malaria control and elimination in Africa. They are reservoirs of malaria parasite that can contribute to disease transmission. Therefore, identification and control of asymptomatic infections are important to make malaria elimination feasible. In this study, we investigated the extent and distribution of asymptomatic malaria in Western Kenya and examined how varying parasitemia affects performance of diagnostic methods including microscopy, conventional PCR, and quantitative PCR. In addition, we compared parasite prevalence rates and parasitemia levels with respect to topography and age in order to explore factors that influence malaria infection. Over 11,000 asymptomatic blood samples from children and adolescents up to 18 years old representing broad areas of Western Kenya were included. Quantitative PCR revealed the highest parasite positive rate among all methods and malaria prevalence in western Kenya varied widely from less than 1% to over 50%. A significantly lower parasitemia was detected in highland than in lowland samples and this contrast was also observed primarily among submicroscopic samples. Although we found no correlation between parasitemia level and age, individuals of younger age group (aged <14) showed significantly higher parasite prevalence. In the lowlands, individuals of aged 5-14 showed significantly higher prevalence than those under age 5. Our findings highlight the need for a more sensitive and time-efficient assay for asymptomatic malaria detection particularly in areas of low-transmission. Combining QPCR with microscopy can enhance the capacity of detecting submicroscopic asymptomatic malaria infections.
Project description:Insecticide resistance might reduce the efficacy of malaria vector control. In 2013 and 2014, malaria vectors from 50 villages, of varying pyrethroid resistance, in western Kenya were assayed for resistance to deltamethrin. Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLIN) were distributed to households at universal coverage. Children were recruited into 2 cohorts, cleared of malaria-causing parasites, and tested every 2 weeks for reinfection. Infection incidence rates for the 2 cohorts were 2.2 (95% CI 1.9-2.5) infections/person-year and 2.8 (95% CI 2.5-3.0) infections/person-year. LLIN users had lower infection rates than non-LLIN users in both low-resistance (rate ratio 0.61, 95% CI 0.42-0.88) and high-resistance (rate ratio 0.55, 95% CI 0.35-0.87) villages (p = 0.63). The association between insecticide resistance and infection incidence was not significant (p = 0.99). Although the incidence of infection was high among net users, LLINs provided significant protection (p = 0.01) against infection with malaria parasite regardless of vector insecticide resistance.
Project description:BackgroundVector surveillance is among the World Health Organization global vector control response (2017-2030) pillars. Human landing catches are a gold standard but difficult to implement and potentially expose collectors to malaria infection. Other methods like light traps, pyrethrum spray catches and aspiration are less expensive and less risky to collectors.MethodsThree mosquito sampling methods (UV light traps, CDC light traps and Prokopack aspiration) were evaluated against human landing catches (HLC) in two villages of Rarieda sub-county, Siaya County, Kenya. UV-LTs, CDC-LTs and HLCs were conducted hourly between 17:00 and 07:00. Aspiration was done indoors and outdoors between 07:00 and 11:00 a.m. Analyses of mosquito densities, species abundance and sporozoite infectivity were performed across all sampling methods. Species identification PCR and ELISAs were done for Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus complexes and data analysis was done in R.ResultsAnopheles mosquitoes sampled from 608 trapping efforts were 5,370 constituting 70.3% Anopheles funestus sensu lato (s.l.), 19.7% Anopheles coustani and 7.2% An. gambiae s.l. 93.8% of An. funestus s.l. were An. funestus sensu stricto (s.s.) and 97.8% of An. gambiae s.l. were Anopheles arabiensis. Only An. funestus were sporozoite positive with 3.1% infection prevalence. Indoors, aspiration captured higher An. funestus (mean = 6.74; RR = 8.83, P < 0.001) then UV-LT (mean = 3.70; RR = 3.97, P < 0.001) and CDC-LT (mean = 1.74; RR = 1.89, P = 0.03) compared to HLC. UV-LT and CDC-LT indoors captured averagely 0.18 An. arabiensis RR = 5.75, P = 0.028 and RR = 5.87, P = 0.028 respectively. Outdoors, UV-LT collected significantly higher Anopheles mosquitoes compared to HLC (An. funestus: RR = 5.18, P < 0.001; An. arabiensis: RR = 15.64, P = 0.009; An. coustani: RR = 11.65, P < 0.001). Anopheles funestus hourly biting indoors in UV-LT and CDC-LT indicated different peaks compared to HLC.ConclusionsAnopheles funestus remains the predominant mosquito species. More mosquitoes were collected using aspiration, CDC-LTs and UV-LTs indoors and UV-LTs and CD-LTs outdoors compared to HLCs. UV-LTs collected more mosquitoes than CDC-LTs. The varied trends observed at different times of the night suggest that these methods collect mosquitoes with diverse activities and care must be taken when interpreting the results.
Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the interactions between increased insecticide resistance and resting behaviour patterns of malaria mosquitoes is important for planning of adequate vector control. This study was designed to investigate the resting behavior, host preference and rates of Plasmodium falciparum infection in relation to insecticide resistance of malaria vectors in different ecologies of western Kenya.MethodsAnopheles mosquito collections were carried out during the dry and rainy seasons in Kisian (lowland site) and Bungoma (highland site), both in western Kenya using pyrethrum spray catches (PSC), mechanical aspiration (Prokopack) for indoor collections, clay pots, pit shelter and Prokopack for outdoor collections. WHO tube bioassay was used to determine levels of phenotypic resistance of indoor and outdoor collected mosquitoes to deltamethrin. PCR-based molecular diagnostics were used for mosquito speciation, genotype for knockdown resistance mutations (1014S and 1014F) and to determine specific host blood meal origins. Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) was used to determine mosquito sporozoite infections.ResultsAnopheles gambiae s.l. was the most predominant species (75%, n = 2706) followed by An. funestus s.l. (25%, n = 860). An. gambiae s.s hereafter (An. gambiae) accounted for 91% (95% CI: 89-93) and An. arabiensis 8% (95% CI: 6-9) in Bungoma, while in Kisian, An. arabiensis composition was 60% (95% CI: 55-66) and An. gambiae 39% (95% CI: 34-44). The resting densities of An. gambiae s.l and An. funestus were higher indoors than outdoor in both sites (An. gambiae s.l; F1, 655 = 41.928, p < 0.0001, An. funestus; F1, 655 = 36.555, p < 0.0001). The mortality rate for indoor and outdoor resting An. gambiae s.l F1 progeny was 37% (95% CI: 34-39) vs 67% (95% CI: 62-69) respectively in Bungoma. In Kisian, the mortality rate was 67% (95% CI: 61-73) vs 76% (95% CI: 71-80) respectively. The mortality rate for F1 progeny of An. funestus resting indoors in Bungoma was 32% (95% CI: 28-35). The 1014S mutation was only detected in indoor resitng An. arabiensis. Similarly, the 1014F mutation was present only in indoor resting An. gambiae. The sporozoite rates were highest in An. funestus followed by An. gambiae, and An. arabiensis resting indoors at 11% (34/311), 8% (47/618) and 4% (1/27) respectively in Bungoma. Overall, in Bungoma, the sporozoite rate for indoor resting mosquitoes was 9% (82/956) and 4% (8/190) for outdoors. In Kisian, the sporozoite rate was 1% (1/112) for indoor resting An. gambiae. None of the outdoor collected mosquitoes in Kisian tested positive for sporozoite infections (n = 73).ConclusionThe study reports high indoor resting densities of An. gambiae and An. funestus, insecticide resistance, and persistence of malaria transmission indoors regardless of the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). These findings underline the difficulties of controlling malaria vectors resting and biting indoors using the current interventions. Supplemental vector control tools and implementation of sustainable insecticide resistance management strategies are needed in western Kenya.