Dataset Information

Modeling the cost effectiveness of malaria control interventions in the highlands of western Kenya.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Tools that allow for in silico optimization of available malaria control strategies can assist the decision-making process for prioritizing interventions. The OpenMalaria stochastic simulation modeling platform can be applied to simulate the impact of interventions singly and in combination as implemented in Rachuonyo South District, western Kenya, to support this goal.

Methods

Combinations of malaria interventions were simulated using a previously-published, validated model of malaria epidemiology and control in the study area. An economic model of the costs of case management and malaria control interventions in Kenya was applied to simulation results and cost-effectiveness of each intervention combination compared to the corresponding simulated outputs of a scenario without interventions. Uncertainty was evaluated by varying health system and intervention delivery parameters.

Results

The intervention strategy with the greatest simulated health impact employed long lasting insecticide treated net (LLIN) use by 80% of the population, 90% of households covered by indoor residual spraying (IRS) with deployment starting in April, and intermittent screen and treat (IST) of school children using Artemether lumefantrine (AL) with 80% coverage twice per term. However, the current malaria control strategy in the study area including LLIN use of 56% and IRS coverage of 70% was the most cost effective at reducing disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over a five year period.

Conclusions

All the simulated intervention combinations can be considered cost effective in the context of available resources for health in Kenya. Increasing coverage of vector control interventions has a larger simulated impact compared to adding IST to the current implementation strategy, suggesting that transmission in the study area is not at a level to warrant replacing vector control to a school-based screen and treat program. These results have the potential to assist malaria control program managers in the study area in adding new or changing implementation of current interventions.

SUBMITTER: Stuckey EM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4188563 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modeling the cost effectiveness of malaria control interventions in the highlands of western Kenya.

Stuckey Erin M EM Stevenson Jennifer J Galactionova Katya K Baidjoe Amrish Y AY Bousema Teun T Odongo Wycliffe W Kariuki Simon S Drakeley Chris C Smith Thomas A TA Cox Jonathan J Chitnis Nakul N

PloS one 20141007 10

<h4>Introduction</h4>Tools that allow for in silico optimization of available malaria control strategies can assist the decision-making process for prioritizing interventions. The OpenMalaria stochastic simulation modeling platform can be applied to simulate the impact of interventions singly and in combination as implemented in Rachuonyo South District, western Kenya, to support this goal.<h4>Methods</h4>Combinations of malaria interventions were simulated using a previously-published, validate ...[more]

PMID: 25290939

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Models of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology that provide realistic quantitative predictions of likely epidemiological outcomes of existing vector control strategies have the potential to assist in planning for the control and elimination of malaria. This work investigates the applicability of mathematical modelling of malaria transmission dynamics in Rachuonyo South, a district with low, unstable transmission in the highlands of western Kenya. METHODS: Individual-based stochastic simulation models of malaria in humans and a deterministic model of malaria in mosquitoes as part of the OpenMalaria platform were parameterized to create a scenario for the study area based on data from ongoing field studies and available literature. The scenario was simulated for a period of two years with a population of 10,000 individuals and validated against malaria survey data from Rachuonyo South. Simulations were repeated with multiple random seeds and an ensemble of 14 model variants to address stochasticity and model uncertainty. A one-dimensional sensitivity analysis was conducted to address parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: The scenario was able to reproduce the seasonal pattern of the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and patent infections observed in an all-age cohort of individuals sampled monthly for one year. Using an EIR estimated from serology to parameterize the scenario resulted in a closer fit to parasite prevalence than an EIR estimated using entomological methods. The scenario parameterization was most sensitive to changes in the timing and effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and the method used to detect P. falciparum in humans. It was less sensitive than expected to changes in vector biting behaviour and climatic patterns. CONCLUSIONS: The OpenMalaria model of P. falciparum transmission can be used to simulate the impact of different combinations of current and potential control interventions to help plan malaria control in this low transmission setting. In this setting and for these scenarios, results were highly sensitive to transmission, vector exophagy, exophily and susceptibility to IRS, and the detection method used for surveillance. The level of accuracy of the results will thus depend upon the precision of estimates for each. New methods for analysing and evaluating uncertainty in simulation results will enhance the usefulness of simulations for malaria control decision-making. Improved measurement tools and increased primary data collection will enhance model parameterization and epidemiological monitoring. Further research is needed on the relationship between malaria indices to identify the best way to quantify transmission in low transmission settings. Measuring EIR through mosquito collection may not be the optimal way to estimate transmission intensity in areas with low, unstable transmission.

Project description:BackgroundThe control and elimination of malaria requires expanded coverage of and access to effective malaria control interventions such as insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), intermittent preventive treatment (IPT), diagnostic testing and appropriate treatment. Decisions on how to scale up the coverage of these interventions need to be based on evidence of programme effectiveness, equity and cost-effectiveness.MethodsA systematic review of the published literature on the costs and cost-effectiveness of malaria interventions was undertaken. All costs and cost-effectiveness ratios were inflated to 2009 USD to allow comparison of the costs and benefits of several different interventions through various delivery channels, across different geographical regions and from varying costing perspectives.ResultsFifty-five studies of the costs and forty three studies of the cost-effectiveness of malaria interventions were identified, 78% of which were undertaken in sub-Saharan Africa, 18% in Asia and 4% in South America. The median financial cost of protecting one person for one year was $2.20 (range $0.88-$9.54) for ITNs, $6.70 (range $2.22-$12.85) for IRS, $0.60 (range $0.48-$1.08) for IPT in infants, $4.03 (range $1.25-$11.80) for IPT in children, and $2.06 (range $0.47-$3.36) for IPT in pregnant women. The median financial cost of diagnosing a case of malaria was $4.32 (range $0.34-$9.34). The median financial cost of treating an episode of uncomplicated malaria was $5.84 (range $2.36-$23.65) and the median financial cost of treating an episode of severe malaria was $30.26 (range $15.64-$137.87). Economies of scale were observed in the implementation of ITNs, IRS and IPT, with lower unit costs reported in studies with larger numbers of beneficiaries. From a provider perspective, the median incremental cost effectiveness ratio per disability adjusted life year averted was $27 (range $8.15-$110) for ITNs, $143 (range $135-$150) for IRS, and $24 (range $1.08-$44.24) for IPT.ConclusionsA transparent evidence base on the costs and cost-effectiveness of malaria control interventions is provided to inform rational resource allocation by donors and domestic health budgets and the selection of optimal packages of interventions by malaria control programmes.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria vector control activities in Sudan rely largely on Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets (LLINs), Indoor Residual Spray (IRS) and Larval Source Management (LSM). The present study attempted to determine cost effectiveness of inputs and operations of vector control interventions applied in different environmental settings in central and eastern Sudan, as well as their impact.MethodsThe inputs utilized and cost of each vector control activity, operational achievements and impact of the applied malaria vector control activities; IRS, LLINs and LSM were determined for eight sites in Al Gazira state (central Sudan) and Al Gadarif state (eastern Sudan). Operational costs were obtained from data of the National Malaria Control Program in 2017. Impact was measured using entomological indicators for Anopheles mosquitoes.ResultsThe total cost per person per year was $1.6, $0.85, and $0.32 for IRS, LLINs and LSM, respectively. Coverage of vector control operations was 97%, 95.2% and 25-50% in IRS, LLINs and LSM, respectively. Vectorial capacity of malaria vectors showed statistically significant variations (P < 0.034) and ranged 0.294-0.65 in areas implemented LSM in comparison to 0.097-0.248 in areas applied IRS and LLINs, respectively. Both indoor and outdoor biting Anopheles mosquitoes showed noticeable increase that reached 3-12 folds in areas implemented LSM in comparison to areas implemented IRS and LLINs. Annual malaria prevalence was 13.1-21.1% in areas implemented LSM in comparison to 3.20%, 4.77% in areas implemented IRS and LLINs, respectively.ConclusionIRS and LLINs are cost effective control measures due to adequate inputs and organized process. However, the unit cost of LSM intervention per outcome and subsequently the impact is hugely affected by the low coverage. The very weak support for implementation of LSM which includes inputs resulted in weakness of its process and consequently its impact. Implementation of LSM by local government in urban settings is challenged by many factors the most important are maintenance of adequate stable level of funding, un-adequate number of well trained health workers, unstable political and administrative conditions and weak infrastructure. These challenges are critical for proper implementation of LSM and control of malaria in urban settings in Sudan.

Dataset Information

Modeling the cost effectiveness of malaria control interventions in the highlands of western Kenya.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Modeling the cost effectiveness of malaria control interventions in the highlands of western Kenya.

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