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Hypothetical midlife interventions in women and risk of type 2 diabetes.


ABSTRACT: Randomized trials have examined short-term effects of lifestyle interventions for diabetes prevention only among high-risk individuals. Prospective studies have examined the associations between lifestyle factors and diabetes in healthy populations but have not characterized the intervention. We estimated the long-term effects of hypothetical lifestyle interventions on diabetes in a prospective study of healthy women, using the parametric g-formula.Using data from the Nurses' Health Study, we followed 76,402 women from 1984 to 2008. We estimated the risk of type 2 diabetes under eight hypothetical interventions: quitting smoking, losing weight by 5% every 2 years if overweight/obese, exercising at least 30 minutes a day, eating less than three servings a week of red meat, eating at least two servings a day of whole grain, drinking two or more cups of coffee a day, drinking five or more grams of alcohol a day, and drinking less than one serving of soda a week.The 24-year risk of diabetes was 9.6% under no intervention and 4.3% when all interventions were imposed (55% lower risk [95% confidence interval = 47 to 63%]). The most effective interventions were weight loss (24% lower risk), physical activity (19%), and moderate alcohol use (19%). Overweight/obese women would benefit the most, with 10.8 percentage point reduction in 24-year risk of diabetes. The validity of these estimates relies on the absence of unmeasured confounding, measurement error, and model misspecification.A combination of dietary and nondietary lifestyle modifications, begun in midlife or later in relatively healthy women, could have prevented at least half of the cases of type 2 diabetes in this cohort of U.S. women.

SUBMITTER: Danaei G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3526834 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Hypothetical midlife interventions in women and risk of type 2 diabetes.

Danaei Goodarz G   Pan An A   Hu Frank B FB   Hernán Miguel A MA  

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 20130101 1


<h4>Background</h4>Randomized trials have examined short-term effects of lifestyle interventions for diabetes prevention only among high-risk individuals. Prospective studies have examined the associations between lifestyle factors and diabetes in healthy populations but have not characterized the intervention. We estimated the long-term effects of hypothetical lifestyle interventions on diabetes in a prospective study of healthy women, using the parametric g-formula.<h4>Methods</h4>Using data f  ...[more]

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