Dataset Information

Accurate model selection of relaxed molecular clocks in bayesian phylogenetics.

ABSTRACT: Recent implementations of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) have been shown to outperform the harmonic mean estimator (HME) and a posterior simulation-based analog of Akaike's information criterion through Markov chain Monte Carlo (AICM), in bayesian model selection of demographic and molecular clock models. Almost simultaneously, a bayesian model averaging approach was developed that avoids conditioning on a single model but averages over a set of relaxed clock models. This approach returns estimates of the posterior probability of each clock model through which one can estimate the Bayes factor in favor of the maximum a posteriori (MAP) clock model; however, this Bayes factor estimate may suffer when the posterior probability of the MAP model approaches 1. Here, we compare these two recent developments with the HME, stabilized/smoothed HME (sHME), and AICM, using both synthetic and empirical data. Our comparison shows reassuringly that MAP identification and its Bayes factor provide similar performance to PS and SS and that these approaches considerably outperform HME, sHME, and AICM in selecting the correct underlying clock model. We also illustrate the importance of using proper priors on a large set of empirical data sets.

SUBMITTER: Baele G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3548314 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Accurate model selection of relaxed molecular clocks in bayesian phylogenetics.

Baele Guy G Li Wai Lok Sibon WL Drummond Alexei J AJ Suchard Marc A MA Lemey Philippe P

Molecular biology and evolution 20121022 2

Recent implementations of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) have been shown to outperform the harmonic mean estimator (HME) and a posterior simulation-based analog of Akaike's information criterion through Markov chain Monte Carlo (AICM), in bayesian model selection of demographic and molecular clock models. Almost simultaneously, a bayesian model averaging approach was developed that avoids conditioning on a single model but averages over a set of relaxed clock models. This ap ...[more]

PMID: 23090976

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Project description:BackgroundCaviidae is a diverse group of caviomorph rodents that is broadly distributed in South America and is divided into three highly divergent extant lineages: Caviinae (cavies), Dolichotinae (maras), and Hydrochoerinae (capybaras). The fossil record of Caviidae is only abundant and diverse since the late Miocene. Caviids belongs to Cavioidea sensu stricto (Cavioidea s.s.) that also includes a diverse assemblage of extinct taxa recorded from the late Oligocene to the middle Miocene of South America ("eocardiids").ResultsA phylogenetic analysis combining morphological and molecular data is presented here, evaluating the time of diversification of selected nodes based on the calibration of phylogenetic trees with fossil taxa and the use of relaxed molecular clocks. This analysis reveals three major phases of diversification in the evolutionary history of Cavioidea s.s. The first two phases involve two successive radiations of extinct lineages that occurred during the late Oligocene and the early Miocene. The third phase consists of the diversification of Caviidae. The initial split of caviids is dated as middle Miocene by the fossil record. This date falls within the 95% higher probability distribution estimated by the relaxed Bayesian molecular clock, although the mean age estimate ages are 3.5 to 7 Myr older. The initial split of caviids is followed by an obscure period of poor fossil record (referred here as the Mayoan gap) and then by the appearance of highly differentiated modern lineages of caviids, which evidentially occurred at the late Miocene as indicated by both the fossil record and molecular clock estimates.ConclusionsThe integrated approach used here allowed us identifying the agreements and discrepancies of the fossil record and molecular clock estimates on the timing of the major events in cavioid evolution, revealing evolutionary patterns that would not have been possible to gather using only molecular or paleontological data alone.

Project description:The neutral theory of molecular evolution (Kimura 1985) is the basis for most current statistical tests for detecting selection, mainly using polymorphism data within species, divergence data between species, and/or genomic structures like linkage disequilibrium (Wang et al. 2006). In most cases informative tests can only be constructed with ample variations within these parameters and many common tests are difficult to formulate when identity-by-descent is not clear, for example in gene families or repetitive elements. With the current progress being made toward whole-genome sequencing and re-sequencing efforts, as well as protein sequencing via tandem mass spectrometry where genomic sequencing is lacking, we felt it was necessary to re-visit possible methods for rapid screening and detection of evolutionary outliers. These outliers might be of interest for other research, such as candidate gene association studies or genome annotations, drug- and disease-target searches, and functional studies. We focused on methods that would work on both protein and nucleotide data, could be used on large gene or protein domain families, and could be generated quickly in order for "first pass" annotation of large scale data. For these reasons, we chose properties of trees generated routinely in molecular phylogenetic studies; genetic distance, tree shape and balance, and internal node statistics (Heard 1992). Our current research looking at protein domain family data and phylogenetic trees from PFAM (Finn et al. 2008) suggests this approach towards detecting evolutionary outliers is feasible, but additional work will be necessary to determine the parameters that suggest either positive or negative selection is occurring in specific gene families. This is particularly true when other factors such as rapid duplication and deletion of genes containing these domains is taking place, and we suggest phylogenetic statistics may be useful in combination with existing methodologies for detailed studies of gene family data.

Dataset Information

Accurate model selection of relaxed molecular clocks in bayesian phylogenetics.

Publications

Accurate model selection of relaxed molecular clocks in bayesian phylogenetics.

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