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Ecosystem variability and early human habitats in eastern Africa.

ABSTRACT: The role of savannas during the course of early human evolution has been debated for nearly a century, in part because of difficulties in characterizing local ecosystems from fossil and sediment records. Here, we present high-resolution lipid biomarker and isotopic signatures for organic matter preserved in lake sediments at Olduvai Gorge during a key juncture in human evolution about 2.0 Ma--the emergence and dispersal of Homo erectus (sensu lato). Using published data for modern plants and soils, we construct a framework for ecological interpretations of stable carbon-isotope compositions (expressed as ?(13)C values) of lipid biomarkers from ancient plants. Within this framework, ?(13)C values for sedimentary leaf lipids and total organic carbon from Olduvai Gorge indicate recurrent ecosystem variations, where open C(4) grasslands abruptly transitioned to closed C(3) forests within several hundreds to thousands of years. Carbon-isotopic signatures correlate most strongly with Earth's orbital geometry (precession), and tropical sea-surface temperatures are significant secondary predictors in partial regression analyses. The scale and pace of repeated ecosystem variations at Olduvai Gorge contrast with long-held views of directional or stepwise aridification and grassland expansion in eastern Africa during the early Pleistocene and provide a local perspective on environmental hypotheses of human evolution.

SUBMITTER: Magill CR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3557058 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Ecosystem variability and early human habitats in eastern Africa.

Magill Clayton R CR Ashley Gail M GM Freeman Katherine H KH

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20121224 4

The role of savannas during the course of early human evolution has been debated for nearly a century, in part because of difficulties in characterizing local ecosystems from fossil and sediment records. Here, we present high-resolution lipid biomarker and isotopic signatures for organic matter preserved in lake sediments at Olduvai Gorge during a key juncture in human evolution about 2.0 Ma--the emergence and dispersal of Homo erectus (sensu lato). Using published data for modern plants and soi ...[more]

PMID: 23267092

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Project description:BackgroundMalaria epidemics remain a serious threat to human populations living in the highlands of East Africa where transmission is unstable and climate sensitive. An existing early malaria epidemic prediction model required further development, validations and automation before its wide use and application in the region. The model has a lead-time of two to four months between the detection of the epidemic signal and the evolution of the epidemic. The validated models would be of great use in the early detection and prevention of malaria epidemics.MethodsConfirmed inpatient malaria data were collected from eight sites in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda for the period 1995-2009. Temperature and rainfall data for the period 1960-2009 were collected from meteorological stations closest to the source of the malaria data. Process-based models were constructed for computing the risk of an epidemic in two general highland ecosystems using temperature and rainfall data. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power were used to validate the models.ResultsDepending on the availability and quality of the malaria and meteorological data, the models indicated good functionality at all sites. Only two sites in Kenya had data that met the criteria for the full validation of the models. The additive model was found most suited for the poorly drained U-shaped valley ecosystems while the multiplicative model was most suited for the well-drained V-shaped valley ecosystem. The +18°C model was adaptable to any of the ecosystems and was designed for conditions where climatology data were not available. The additive model scored 100% for sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power. The multiplicative model had a sensitivity of 75% specificity of 99% and a positive predictive power of 86%.ConclusionsThe additive and multiplicative models were validated and were shown to be robust and with high climate-based, early epidemic predictive power. They are designed for use in the common, well- and poorly drained valley ecosystems in the highlands of East Africa.

Dataset Information

Ecosystem variability and early human habitats in eastern Africa.

Publications

Ecosystem variability and early human habitats in eastern Africa.

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