Development and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africa.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Malaria epidemics remain a serious threat to human populations living in the highlands of East Africa where transmission is unstable and climate sensitive. An existing early malaria epidemic prediction model required further development, validations and automation before its wide use and application in the region. The model has a lead-time of two to four months between the detection of the epidemic signal and the evolution of the epidemic. The validated models would be of great use in the early detection and prevention of malaria epidemics.

Methods

Confirmed inpatient malaria data were collected from eight sites in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda for the period 1995-2009. Temperature and rainfall data for the period 1960-2009 were collected from meteorological stations

SUBMITTER: Githeko AK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4158077 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature