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Time series analysis of onchocerciasis data from Mexico: a trend towards elimination.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. RESULTS: A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. CONCLUSION: The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance.

SUBMITTER: Lara-Ramirez EE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3573083 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Time series analysis of onchocerciasis data from Mexico: a trend towards elimination.

Lara-Ramírez Edgar E EE Rodríguez-Pérez Mario A MA Pérez-Rodríguez Miguel A MA Adeleke Monsuru A MA Orozco-Algarra María E ME Arrendondo-Jiménez Juan I JI Guo Xianwu X

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20130214 2

<h4>Background</h4>In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the softwar ...[more]

PMID: 23459370

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Project description:BackgroundCôte d'Ivoire has had 45 years of intervention for onchocerciasis by vector control (from 1975 to 1991), ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) (from 1992 to 1994) and community directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTi) from 1995 to the present. We modeled onchocerciasis endemicity during two time periods that correspond to the scale up of vector control and ivermectin distribution, respectively. This analysis illustrates progress towards elimination during these periods, and it has identified potential hotspots areas that are at risk for ongoing transmission.Methods and findingsThe analysis used Ministry of Health skin snip microfilaria (MF) prevalence and intensity data collected between 1975 and 2016. Socio-demographic and environmental factors were incorporated into a predictive, machine learning algorithm to create continuous maps of onchocerciasis endemicity. Overall predicted mean MF prevalence decreased from 51.8% circa 1991 to 3.9% circa 2016. The model predicted infection foci with higher prevalence in the southern region of the country. Predicted mean community MF load (CMFL) decreased from 10.1MF/snip circa 1991 to 0.1MF/snip circa 2016. Again, the model predicts foci with higher Mf densities in the southern region. For assessing model performance, the root mean squared error and R2 values were 1.14 and 0.62 respectively for a model trained with data collected prior to 1991, and 1.28 and 0.57 for the model trained with infection survey data collected later, after the introduction of ivermectin. Finally, our models show that proximity to permanent inland bodies of water and altitude were the most informative variables that correlated with onchocerciasis endemicity.Conclusion/significanceThis study further documents the significant reduction of onchocerciasis infection following widespread use of ivermectin for onchocerciasis control in Côte d'Ivoire. Maps produced predict areas at risk for ongoing infection and transmission. Onchocerciasis might be eliminated in Côte d'Ivoire in the future with a combination of sustained CDTi with high coverage, active surveillance, and close monitoring for persistent infection in previously hyper-endemic areas.

Project description:After more than a decade of community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) in the West Region of Cameroon, epidemiological evaluation conducted in 2011 showed that onchocerciasis endemicity was still high in some communities. The conceptual framework for onchocerciasis elimination recommends in such case, to conduct additional phase 1A surveys at intervals of three to four years. Therefore, to assess the progress made towards the elimination of onchocerciasis in the West CDTI projects, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in May 2015 in 15 unevaluated communities where the highest baseline endemicity level were found in 1996. All volunteers living for at least five years in the community, aged five years or more, underwent clinical and parasitological examinations. Individual adherence to ivermectin treatment was also assessed. Analyses of data were weighted proportionally to age and gender distribution in the population.The mean age was 28.4 ± 22.2 years and there were 55% of women among the 2058 individuals examined. The weighted prevalences were 5.5%, 2.1% and 1.7% for microfilaridermia, nodule and cutaneous signs, respectively. The weighted microfilaridermia prevalences varied from 4.0 in 5-9 years old to 11.6% in 40-49 years old. In the 30 children under 10 years examined in Makouopsap, the weighted prevalences were 49.9% for microfilaridermia and 13.3% for nodule. In surveyed communities, the weighted prevalences varied from 0 to 41.6% for microfilaridermia, with 11 (73.3%) communities having <5%. Except Makouopsap which had 41.6%, all the surveyed communities were below 15% for microfilaridermia prevalence. The community microfilarial load (CMFL) expressed in microfilariae/skin snip (mf/ss), also significantly dropped by 98-100%, from 3.75-33.16 mf/ss in 1996 to 0-0.94 mf/ss in 2015. The weighted therapeutic coverage in 2014 was 69.4% and the 5 years' adherence was only 39.3% among participants.After more than 15 years of CDTI, there is an important progress towards the elimination of onchocerciasis in the communities surveyed. Innovative strategy like semi-annual ivermectin treatment plus vector control or the adjunction of a vector control strategy to the current annual treatment should be implemented in the bordering districts of the Centre and West Regions, as well as in other parts of the country with persistent high prevalences in the sight of onchocerciasis elimination.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. METHODS:We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. FINDINGS:Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], p<0·0001). Starting in March, 2008, the number of cases of infective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, p<0·0001). By March, 2013, 35 more cases per month were reported than would have been expected had the previous trend continued. This increase in the incidence of infective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. INTERPRETATION:Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis have fallen substantially and the incidence of infective endocarditis has increased significantly in England since introduction of the 2008 NICE guidelines. FUNDING:Heart Research UK, Simplyhealth, and US National Institutes of Health.

Project description:BackgroundGonorrhea has long been a serious public health problem in mainland China that requires attention, modeling to describe and predict its prevalence patterns can help the government to develop more scientific interventions.MethodsTime series (TS) data of the gonorrhea incidence in China from January 2004 to August 2022 were collected, with the incidence data from September 2021 to August 2022 as the validation. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, long short-term memory network (LSTM) model, and hybrid SARIMA-LSTM model were used to simulate the data respectively, the model performance were evaluated by calculating the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) of the training and validation sets of the models.ResultsThe Seasonal components after data decomposition showed an approximate bimodal distribution with a period of 12 months. The three models identified were SARIMA(1,1,1) (2,1,2)12, LSTM with 150 hidden units, and SARIMA-LSTM with 150 hidden units, the SARIMA-LSTM model fitted best in the training and validation sets, for the smallest MAPE, RMSE, and MPE.ConclusionsThe overall incidence trend of gonorrhea in mainland China has been on the decline since 2004, with some periods exhibiting an upward trend. The incidence of gonorrhea displays a seasonal distribution, typically peaking in July and December each year. The SARIMA model, LSTM model, and SARIMA-LSTM model can all fit the monthly incidence time series data of gonorrhea in mainland China. However, in terms of predictive performance, the SARIMA-LSTM model outperforms the SARIMA and LSTM models, with the LSTM model surpassing the SARIMA model. This suggests that the SARIMA-LSTM model can serve as a preferred tool for time series analysis, providing evidence for the government to predict trends in gonorrhea incidence. The model's predictions indicate that the incidence of gonorrhea in mainland China will remain at a high level in 2024, necessitating that policymakers implement public health measures in advance to prevent the spread of the disease.

Dataset Information

Time series analysis of onchocerciasis data from Mexico: a trend towards elimination.

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Time series analysis of onchocerciasis data from Mexico: a trend towards elimination.

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