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Immunologic risk factors for early mortality after starting antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected Zambian children.

ABSTRACT: To explore immunologic risk factors for death within 90 days of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) initiation, CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell subsets were measured by flow cytometry and characterized by logistic regression in 149 Zambian children between 9 months and 10 years of age enrolled in a prospective, observational study of the impact of HAART on measles immunity. Of 21 children who died during follow-up, 17 (81%) had known dates of death and 16 (76%) died within 90 days of initiating HAART. Young age and low weight-for-age z-scores were associated with increased risks of mortality within 90 days of starting HAART, whereas CD4(+) T cell percentage was not associated with mortality. After adjusting for these factors, each 10% increase in CD8(+) effector T cells increased the odds of overall mortality [OR=1.43 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.90)] and was marginally associated with early mortality [OR=1.29 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.72)]. Conversely, each 10% increase in CD4(+) central memory T cells decreased the odds of overall [OR=0.06 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.59)] and early mortality [OR=0.09 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.97)]. Logistic regression prediction models demonstrated areas under the receiver-operator characteristic curves of ?85% for early and overall mortality, with bootstrapped sensitivities of 82-85% upon validation, supporting the predictive accuracy of the models. CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell subsets may be more accurate predictors of early mortality than CD4(+) T cell percentages and could be used to identify children who would benefit from more frequent clinical monitoring after initiating HAART.

SUBMITTER: Rainwater-Lovett K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3581031 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Immunologic risk factors for early mortality after starting antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected Zambian children.

Rainwater-Lovett Kaitlin K Nkamba Hope C HC Mubiana-Mbewe Mwangelwa M Moore Carolyn Bolton CB Moss William J WJ

AIDS research and human retroviruses 20121031 3

To explore immunologic risk factors for death within 90 days of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) initiation, CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell subsets were measured by flow cytometry and characterized by logistic regression in 149 Zambian children between 9 months and 10 years of age enrolled in a prospective, observational study of the impact of HAART on measles immunity. Of 21 children who died during follow-up, 17 (81%) had known dates of death and 16 (76%) died within 90 days of initiatin ...[more]

PMID: 23025633

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Project description:BackgroundMortality in HIV-infected patients who have access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) has declined in sub-Saharan Africa, but it is unclear how mortality compares to the non-HIV-infected population. We compared mortality rates observed in HIV-1-infected patients starting ART with non-HIV-related background mortality in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa.Methods and findingsPatients enrolled in antiretroviral treatment programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe were included. We calculated excess mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Expected numbers of deaths were obtained using estimates of age-, sex-, and country-specific, HIV-unrelated, mortality rates from the Global Burden of Disease project. Among 13,249 eligible patients 1,177 deaths were recorded during 14,695 person-years of follow-up. The median age was 34 y, 8,831 (67%) patients were female, and 10,811 of 12,720 patients (85%) with information on clinical stage had advanced disease when starting ART. The excess mortality rate was 17.5 (95% CI 14.5-21.1) per 100 person-years SMR in patients who started ART with a CD4 cell count of less than 25 cells/microl and World Health Organization (WHO) stage III/IV, compared to 1.00 (0.55-1.81) per 100 person-years in patients who started with 200 cells/microl or above with WHO stage I/II. The corresponding SMRs were 47.1 (39.1-56.6) and 3.44 (1.91-6.17). Among patients who started ART with 200 cells/microl or above in WHO stage I/II and survived the first year of ART, the excess mortality rate was 0.27 (0.08-0.94) per 100 person-years and the SMR was 1.14 (0.47-2.77).ConclusionsMortality of HIV-infected patients treated with combination ART in sub-Saharan Africa continues to be higher than in the general population, but for some patients excess mortality is moderate and reaches that of the general population in the second year of ART. Much of the excess mortality might be prevented by timely initiation of ART.

Project description:In countries with a high seroprevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), HIV infection contributes significantly to infant mortality. We investigated antiretroviral-treatment strategies in the Children with HIV Early Antiretroviral Therapy (CHER) trial.HIV-infected infants 6 to 12 weeks of age with a CD4 lymphocyte percentage (the CD4 percentage) of 25% or more were randomly assigned to receive antiretroviral therapy (lopinavir-ritonavir, zidovudine, and lamivudine) when the CD4 percentage decreased to less than 20% (or 25% if the child was younger than 1 year) or clinical criteria were met (the deferred antiretroviral-therapy group) or to immediate initiation of limited antiretroviral therapy until 1 year of age or 2 years of age (the early antiretroviral-therapy groups). We report the early outcomes for infants who received deferred antiretroviral therapy as compared with early antiretroviral therapy.At a median age of 7.4 weeks (interquartile range, 6.6 to 8.9) and a CD4 percentage of 35.2% (interquartile range, 29.1 to 41.2), 125 infants were randomly assigned to receive deferred therapy, and 252 infants were randomly assigned to receive early therapy. After a median follow-up of 40 weeks (interquartile range, 24 to 58), antiretroviral therapy was initiated in 66% of infants in the deferred-therapy group. Twenty infants in the deferred-therapy group (16%) died versus 10 infants in the early-therapy groups (4%) (hazard ratio for death, 0.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11 to 0.51; P<0.001). In 32 infants in the deferred-therapy group (26%) versus 16 infants in the early-therapy groups (6%), disease progressed to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stage C or severe stage B (hazard ratio for disease progression, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.15 to 0.41; P<0.001). Stavudine was substituted for zidovudine in four infants in the early-therapy groups because of neutropenia in three infants and anemia in one infant; no drugs were permanently discontinued. After a review by the data and safety monitoring board, the deferred-therapy group was modified, and infants in this group were all reassessed for initiation of antiretroviral therapy.Early HIV diagnosis and early antiretroviral therapy reduced early infant mortality by 76% and HIV progression by 75%. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00102960.)

Project description:There are limited data of immunologic and virologic failure in Asian HIV-infected children using non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We examined the incidence rate of immunologic failure (IF) and virologic failure (VF) and the accuracy of using IF to predict VF in Thai HIV-infected children using first-line NNRTI-based HAART.Antiretroviral (ART)-naïve HIV-infected children from 2 prospective cohorts treated with NNRTI-based HAART during 2001-2008 were included. CD4 counts were performed every 12 weeks and plasma HIV-RNA measured every 24 weeks. Immune recovery was defined as CD4%?25%. IF was defined as persistent decline of ?5% in CD4% in children with CD4%<15% at baseline or decrease in CD4 count ?30% from baseline. VF was defined as HIV-RNA>1,000 copies/ml after at least 24 weeks of HAART. Clinical and laboratory parameter changes were assessed using a paired t-test, and a time to event approach was used to assess predictors of VF. Sensitivity and specificity of IF were calculated against VF.107 ART-naive HIV-infected children were included, 52% female, % CDC clinical classification N:A:B:C 4:44:30:22%. Baseline data were median (IQR) age 6.2 (4.2-8.9) years, CD4% 7 (3-15), HIV-RNA 5.0 (4.9-5.5) log10copies/ml. Nevirapine (NVP) and efavirenz (EFV)-based HAART were started in 70% and 30%, respectively.At 96 weeks, none had progressed to a CDC clinical classification of AIDS and one had died from pneumonia. Overall, significant improvement of weight for age z-score (p = 0.014), height for age z-score, hemoglobin, and CD4 were seen (all p < 0.001). The median (IQR) CD4% at 96 weeks was 25 (18-30)%. Eighty-nine percent of children had immune recovery (CD4%?25%) and 75% of children had HIV-RNA <1.7log10copies/ml.Thirty five (32.7%) children experienced VF within 96 weeks. Of these, 24 (68.6%) and 31 (88.6%) children had VF in the first 24 and 48 weeks respectively.Only 1 (0.9%) child experienced IF within 96 weeks and the sensitivity (95%CI) of IF to VF was 4 (0.1-20.4)% and specificity was 100 (93.9-100)%.Immunologic failure, as defined here, had low sensitivity compared to VF and should not be recommended to detect treatment failure. Plasma HIV-RNA should be performed twice, at weeks 24 and 48, to detect early treatment failure.Clinicaltrials.gov identification number NCT00476606.

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Immunologic risk factors for early mortality after starting antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected Zambian children.

Publications

Immunologic risk factors for early mortality after starting antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected Zambian children.

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