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Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment in programmes with and without routine viral load monitoring in Southern Africa.

ABSTRACT: To compare outcomes of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa, where viral load monitoring is routine, with those in Malawi and Zambia, where monitoring is based on CD4 cell counts.We included 18,706 adult patients starting ART in South Africa and 80,937 patients in Zambia or Malawi. We examined CD4 responses in models for repeated measures and the probability of switching to second-line regimens, mortality and loss to follow-up in multistate models, measuring time from 6 months.In South Africa, 9.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.1-10.5] had switched at 3 years, 1.3% (95% CI 0.9-1.6) remained on failing first-line regimens, 9.2% (95% CI 8.5-9.8) were lost to follow-up and 4.3% (95% CI 3.9-4.8) had died. In Malawi and Zambia, more patients were on a failing first-line regimen [3.7% (95% CI 3.6-3.9], fewer patients had switched [2.1% (95% CI 2.0-2.3)] and more patients were lost to follow-up [15.3% (95% CI 15.0-15.6)] or had died [6.3% (95% CI 6.0-6.5)]. Median CD4 cell counts were lower in South Africa at the start of ART (93 vs. 132 cells/?l; P < 0.001) but higher after 3 years (425 vs. 383 cells/?l; P < 0.001). The hazard ratio comparing South Africa with Malawi and Zambia after adjusting for age, sex, first-line regimen and CD4 cell count was 0.58 (0.50-0.66) for death and 0.53 (0.48-0.58) for loss to follow-up.Over 3 years of ART mortality was lower in South Africa than in Malawi or Zambia. The more favourable outcome in South Africa might be explained by viral load monitoring leading to earlier detection of treatment failure, adherence counselling and timelier switching to second-line ART.

SUBMITTER: Keiser O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3605707 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment in programmes with and without routine viral load monitoring in Southern Africa.

Keiser Olivia O Chi Benjamin H BH Gsponer Thomas T Boulle Andrew A Orrell Catherine C Phiri Sam S Maxwell Nicola N Maskew Mhairi M Prozesky Hans H Fox Matthew P MP Westfall Andrew A Egger Matthias M

AIDS (London, England) 20110901 14

<h4>Objectives</h4>To compare outcomes of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa, where viral load monitoring is routine, with those in Malawi and Zambia, where monitoring is based on CD4 cell counts.<h4>Methods</h4>We included 18,706 adult patients starting ART in South Africa and 80,937 patients in Zambia or Malawi. We examined CD4 responses in models for repeated measures and the probability of switching to second-line regimens, mortality and loss to follow-up in multistate models, meas ...[more]

PMID: 21681057

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Project description:IntroductionHIV viral load (VL) testing is recommended by the WHO as the preferred method for monitoring patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, evidence that routine VL (RVL) monitoring improves clinical outcomes is lacking.MethodsWe conducted a prospective, randomized controlled trial of RVL monitoring every six months versus a targeted VL (TVL) strategy (routine CD4 plus VL testing if clinical or immunological failure) in patients starting ART between April 2011 and April 2014 at Bach Mai Hospital in Hanoi. Six hundred and forty-seven subjects were randomized to RVL (n = 305) or TVL monitoring (n = 342) and followed up for three years. Primary endpoints were death or WHO clinical Stage 4 events between six and thirty-six months of ART and rate of virological suppression at three years.ResultsOverall, 37.1% of subjects were female, median age was 33.4 years (IQR: 29.5 to 38.6), and 47% had a CD4 count ≤100 cells/mm3 at time of ART initiation. Approximately 44% of study events (death, LTFU, withdrawal, or Stage 4 event) and 68% of deaths occurred within the first six months of ART. Among patients on ART at six months, death or Stage 4 event occurred in 3.6% of RVL and 3.9% of TVL (p = 0.823). Survival analysis showed no significant difference between the groups (p = 0.825). Viral suppression at 36 months of ART was 97.2% in RVL and 98.9% in TVL (p = 0.206) at a threshold of 400 copies/mL and was 98.0% in RVL and 98.9% in TVL (p = 0.488) at 1000 copies/mL. In ITT analysis, 20.7% in RVL and 21.9% in TVL (p = 0.693) were unsuppressed at 1000 copies/mL.ConclusionsWe found no significant difference in rates of death or Stage 4 events and virological failure in patients with RVL monitoring compared to those monitored with a TVL strategy after three years of follow-up. Viral suppression rates were high overall and there were few study events among patients alive and on ART after six months, limiting the study's power to detect a difference among study arms. Nonetheless, these data suggest that the choice of VL monitoring strategy may have less impact on patient outcomes compared to efforts to reduce early mortality and improve ART retention.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:Seasonal variations in tuberculosis diagnoses have been attributed to seasonal climatic changes and indoor crowding during colder winter months. We investigated trends in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) diagnosis at antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Southern Africa. SETTING:Five ART programmes participating in the International Epidemiology Database to Evaluate AIDS in South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. PARTICIPANTS:We analysed data of 331 634 HIV-positive adults (>15 years), who initiated ART between January 2004 and December 2014. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE:We calculated aggregated averages in monthly counts of PTB diagnoses and ART initiations. To account for time trends, we compared deviations of monthly event counts to yearly averages, and calculated correlation coefficients. We used multivariable regressions to assess associations between deviations of monthly ART initiation and PTB diagnosis counts from yearly averages, adjusted for monthly air temperatures and geographical latitude. As controls, we used Kaposi sarcoma and extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) diagnoses. RESULTS:All programmes showed monthly variations in PTB diagnoses that paralleled fluctuations in ART initiations, with recurrent patterns across 2004-2014. The strongest drops in PTB diagnoses occurred in December, followed by April-May in Zimbabwe and South Africa. This corresponded to holiday seasons, when clinical activities are reduced. We observed little monthly variation in ART initiations and PTB diagnoses in Zambia. Correlation coefficients supported parallel trends in ART initiations and PTB diagnoses (correlation coefficient: 0.28, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.35, P<0.001). Monthly temperatures and latitude did not substantially change regression coefficients between ART initiations and PTB diagnoses. Trends in Kaposi sarcoma and EPTB diagnoses similarly followed changes in ART initiations throughout the year. CONCLUSIONS:Monthly variations in PTB diagnosis at ART programmes in Southern Africa likely occurred regardless of seasonal variations in temperatures or latitude and reflected fluctuations in clinical activities and changes in health-seeking behaviour throughout the year, rather than climatic factors.

Dataset Information

Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment in programmes with and without routine viral load monitoring in Southern Africa.

Publications

Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment in programmes with and without routine viral load monitoring in Southern Africa.

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