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Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country.

ABSTRACT: The possible occurrence of a highly pathogenic influenza strain is of concern to health authorities worldwide. It is known that during past influenza pandemics developing countries have experienced considerably higher death rates compared with developed countries. Furthermore, many developing countries lack appropriate pandemic preparedness plans. Mathematical modelling studies to guide the development of such plans are largely focused on predicting pandemic influenza spread in developed nations. However, intervention strategies shown by modelling studies to be highly effective for developed countries give limited guidance as to the impact which an influenza pandemic may have on low-income countries given different demographics and resource constraints. To address this, an individual-based model of a Papua New Guinean (PNG) community was created and used to simulate the spread of a novel influenza strain. The results were compared with those obtained from a comparable Australian model.A modelling study.The towns of Madang in PNG (population ?35 000) and Albany (population ?30 000) in Australia.Daily and cumulative illness attack rates in both models following introduction of a novel influenza strain into a naive population, for an unmitigated scenario and two social distancing intervention scenarios.The unmitigated scenario indicated an approximately 50% higher attack rate in PNG compared with the Australian model. The two social distancing-based interventions strategies were 60-70% less effective in a PNG setting compared with an Australian setting.This study provides further evidence that an influenza pandemic occurring in a low-income country such as PNG may have a greater impact than one occurring in a developed country, and that PNG-feasible interventions may be substantially less effective. The larger average household size in PNG, the larger proportion of the population under 18 and greater community-wide contact all contribute to this feature.

SUBMITTER: Milne GJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3612822 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country.

Milne George J GJ Baskaran Pravin P Halder Nilimesh N Karl Stephan S Kelso Joel J

BMJ open 20130326 3

<h4>Objectives</h4>The possible occurrence of a highly pathogenic influenza strain is of concern to health authorities worldwide. It is known that during past influenza pandemics developing countries have experienced considerably higher death rates compared with developed countries. Furthermore, many developing countries lack appropriate pandemic preparedness plans. Mathematical modelling studies to guide the development of such plans are largely focused on predicting pandemic influenza spread i ...[more]

PMID: 23535701

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Project description:BackgroundThe time delay between the start of an influenza pandemic and its subsequent initiation in other countries is highly relevant to preparedness planning. We quantify the distribution of this random time in terms of the separate components of this delay, and assess how the delay may be extended by non-pharmaceutical interventions.Methods and findingsThe model constructed for this time delay accounts for: (i) epidemic growth in the source region, (ii) the delay until an infected individual from the source region seeks to travel to an at-risk country, (iii) the chance that infected travelers are detected by screening at exit and entry borders, (iv) the possibility of in-flight transmission, (v) the chance that an infected arrival might not initiate an epidemic, and (vi) the delay until infection in the at-risk country gathers momentum. Efforts that reduce the disease reproduction number in the source region below two and severe travel restrictions are most effective for delaying a local epidemic, and under favourable circumstances, could add several months to the delay. On the other hand, the model predicts that border screening for symptomatic infection, wearing a protective mask during travel, promoting early presentation of cases arising among arriving passengers and moderate reduction in travel volumes increase the delay only by a matter of days or weeks. Elevated in-flight transmission reduces the delay only minimally.ConclusionsThe delay until an epidemic of pandemic strain influenza is imported into an at-risk country is largely determined by the course of the epidemic in the source region and the number of travelers attempting to enter the at-risk country, and is little affected by non-pharmaceutical interventions targeting these travelers. Short of preventing international travel altogether, eradicating a nascent pandemic in the source region appears to be the only reliable method of preventing country-to-country spread of a pandemic strain of influenza.

Project description:BackgroundMolecular mechanisms determining the transmission and prevalence of drug resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) in Papua New Guinea (PNG) are poorly understood. We used genomic and drug susceptibility data to explore the evolutionary history, temporal acquisition of resistance and transmission dynamics of DR-TB across PNG.MethodsWe performed whole genome sequencing on isolates from Central Public Health Laboratory, PNG, collected 2017-2019. Data analysis was done on a composite dataset that also included 100 genomes previously sequenced from Daru, PNG (2012-2015).ResultsSampled isolates represented 14 of the 22 PNG provinces, the majority (66/94; 70%) came from the National Capital District (NCD). In the composite dataset, 91% of strains were Beijing 2.2.1.1, identified in 13 provinces. Phylogenetic tree of Beijing strains revealed two clades, Daru dominant clade (A) and NCD dominant clade (B). Multi-drug resistance (MDR) was repeatedly and independently acquired, with the first MDR cases in both clades noted to have emerged in the early 1990s, while fluoroquinolone resistance emerged in 2009 (95% highest posterior density 2000-2016). We identified the presence of a frameshift mutation within Rv0678 (p.Asp47fs) which has been suggested to confer resistance to bedaquiline, despite no known exposure to the drug. Overall genomic clustering was significantly associated with rpoC compensatory and inhA promoter mutations (p < 0.001), with high percentage of most genomic clusters (12/14) identified in NCD, reflecting its role as a potential national amplifier.ConclusionsThe acquisition and evolution of drug resistance among the major clades of Beijing strain threaten the success of DR-TB treatment in PNG. With continued transmission of this strain in PNG, genotypic drug resistance surveillance using whole genome sequencing is essential for improved public health response to outbreaks. With occurrence of resistance to newer drugs such as bedaquiline, knowledge of full drug resistance profiles will be important for optimal treatment selection.

Project description:BackgroundSince 2004, the Global Fund-supported National Malaria Control Programme of Papua New Guinea (PNG) has been implementing country-wide free long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) distribution campaigns. In 2009, after the first distribution, only 32.5% of the population used a LLIN, mainly due to an insufficient number of nets available. This study investigated changes in mosquito net ownership and use following the continued free distribution of LLINs across PNG.MethodsFive villages from each province and 30 households from each village were randomly sampled in a country-wide household survey in 2010/11. A structured questionnaire administered to household heads recorded information on mosquito net ownership and use alongside household characteristics. Revised ownership and access indicators were applied in the analysis to reveal coverage gaps.ResultsThe survey covered 1,996 households in 77 villages. Ownership of at least one LLIN was reported by 81.8% of households, compared to 64.6% in 2009 (P?=?0.002). Sufficient LLINs to cover all household members (one net per two people) were found in 41.3% of the households (21.4% in 2009, P?<?0.001). Of all household members, 61.4% had access to a LLIN within their household (44.3% in 2009 P?=?0.002), and 48.3% slept under a LLIN (32.5% in 2009, P?=?0.001). LLIN use in children under five years amounted to 58.2%, compared to 39.5% in 2009 (P?<?0.001). Significant regional differences in coverage and changes over time were observed. A recent LLIN distribution was a key determinant of LLIN ownership (adj. OR?=?3.46) while families in high quality houses would frequently not own a LLIN (adj. OR?=?0.09). Residents were more likely to use LLINs than household guests (OR?=?2.04).ConclusionsRepeated LLIN distribution has led to significant increases in mosquito net ownership and use with few regional exceptions. Additional nets are required in areas where access is low, while major efforts are required to encourage the use of existing nets in region where access is high but use remains low. Complementary vector control approaches should also be considered in such settings.

Dataset Information

Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country.

Publications

Pandemic influenza in Papua New Guinea: a modelling study comparison with pandemic spread in a developed country.

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