Dataset Information

Could drought conditions trigger Schmallenberg virus and other arboviruses circulation?

ABSTRACT:

Background

In 2011, a new orthobunyavirus, named the Schmallenberg virus (SBV), was discovered in Europe. Like the related Shamonda virus, SBV is an arbovirus (arthropod-borne virus). After its discovery, the virus was detected in a wide area in north-western Europe, an unexpected finding in a territory where climatic conditions would not seem ideal for arbovirus transmission. This sudden expansion suggests the effect of 2011 drought as a key factor that may have triggered SBV circulation. The possible influence of drought, recorded in north-western Europe in early 2011, on virus circulation was evaluated.

Methods and results

The locations of SBV detections in Europe until April 2012 were obtained, and area of virus circulation was evaluated by kernel density estimation. Precipitation data in SBV circulation area, summarized by the 3 month precipitation indexes of May, were compared with precipitation data outside that area, confirming driest conditions in that area.

Conclusions

The onset of drought conditions recorded in the SBV detection area in early 2011 may have promoted the circulation of this virus. A correlation between circulation of some arboviruses and drought has been reported elsewhere. This was mainly explained by an effect of water deficit on the environment, which altered the relationships between vectors and reservoirs, but this correlation might be also the result of unknown effects of drought on the vectors. The effect of drought conditions on arbovirus circulation is most likely underestimated and should be considered, since it could promote expansion of arboviruses into new areas in a global warming scenario.

SUBMITTER: Calzolari M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3614475 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Could drought conditions trigger Schmallenberg virus and other arboviruses circulation?

Calzolari Mattia M Albieri Alessandro A

International journal of health geographics 20130214

<h4>Background</h4>In 2011, a new orthobunyavirus, named the Schmallenberg virus (SBV), was discovered in Europe. Like the related Shamonda virus, SBV is an arbovirus (arthropod-borne virus). After its discovery, the virus was detected in a wide area in north-western Europe, an unexpected finding in a territory where climatic conditions would not seem ideal for arbovirus transmission. This sudden expansion suggests the effect of 2011 drought as a key factor that may have triggered SBV circulatio ...[more]

PMID: 23409725

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Arboviruses are a growing public health concern in Europe, with both endemic and exotic arboviruses expected to spread further into novel areas in the next decades. Predicting where future outbreaks will occur is a major challenge, particularly for regions where these arboviruses are not endemic. Spatial modelling of ecological risk factors for arbovirus circulation can help identify areas of potential emergence. Moreover, combining hazard maps of different arboviruses may facilitate a cost-efficient, targeted multiplex-surveillance strategy in areas where virus transmission is most likely. Here, we developed predictive hazard maps for the introduction and/or establishment of six arboviruses that were previously prioritized for the Netherlands: West Nile virus, Japanese encephalitis virus, Rift Valley fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, louping-ill virus and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus. METHODS:Our spatial model included ecological risk factors that were identified as relevant for these arboviruses by an earlier systematic review, including abiotic conditions, vector abundance, and host availability. We used geographic information system (GIS)-based tools and geostatistical analyses to model spatially continuous datasets on these risk factors to identify regions in the Netherlands with suitable ecological conditions for arbovirus introduction and establishment. RESULTS:The resulting hazard maps show that there is spatial clustering of areas with either a relatively low or relatively high environmental suitability for arbovirus circulation. Moreover, there was some overlap in high-hazard areas for virus introduction and/or establishment, particularly in the southern part of the country. CONCLUSIONS:The similarities in environmental suitability for some of the arboviruses provide opportunities for targeted sampling of vectors and/or sentinel hosts in these potential hotspots of emergence, thereby increasing the efficient use of limited resources for surveillance.

Dataset Information

Could drought conditions trigger Schmallenberg virus and other arboviruses circulation?

Background

Methods and results

Conclusions

Publications

Could drought conditions trigger Schmallenberg virus and other arboviruses circulation?

Similar Datasets

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