Dataset Information

A network diffusion model of disease progression in dementia.

ABSTRACT: Patterns of dementia are known to fall into dissociated but dispersed brain networks, suggesting that the disease is transmitted along neuronal pathways rather than by proximity. This view is supported by neuropathological evidence for "prion-like" transsynaptic transmission of disease agents like misfolded tau and beta amyloid. We mathematically model this transmission by a diffusive mechanism mediated by the brain's connectivity network obtained from tractography of 14 healthy-brain MRIs. Subsequent graph theoretic analysis provides a fully quantitative, testable, predictive model of dementia. Specifically, we predict spatially distinct "persistent modes," which, we found, recapitulate known patterns of dementia and match recent reports of selectively vulnerable dissociated brain networks. Model predictions also closely match T1-weighted MRI volumetrics of 18 Alzheimer's and 18 frontotemporal dementia subjects. Prevalence rates predicted by the model strongly agree with published data. This work has many important implications, including dimensionality reduction, differential diagnosis, and especially prediction of future atrophy using baseline MRI morphometrics.

SUBMITTER: Raj A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3623298 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A network diffusion model of disease progression in dementia.

Raj Ashish A Kuceyeski Amy A Weiner Michael M

Neuron 20120321 6

Patterns of dementia are known to fall into dissociated but dispersed brain networks, suggesting that the disease is transmitted along neuronal pathways rather than by proximity. This view is supported by neuropathological evidence for "prion-like" transsynaptic transmission of disease agents like misfolded tau and beta amyloid. We mathematically model this transmission by a diffusive mechanism mediated by the brain's connectivity network obtained from tractography of 14 healthy-brain MRIs. Subs ...[more]

PMID: 22445347

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Project description:Several CSF and blood biomarkers for genetic frontotemporal dementia have been proposed, including those reflecting neuroaxonal loss (neurofilament light chain and phosphorylated neurofilament heavy chain), synapse dysfunction [neuronal pentraxin 2 (NPTX2)], astrogliosis (glial fibrillary acidic protein) and complement activation (C1q, C3b). Determining the sequence in which biomarkers become abnormal over the course of disease could facilitate disease staging and help identify mutation carriers with prodromal or early-stage frontotemporal dementia, which is especially important as pharmaceutical trials emerge. We aimed to model the sequence of biomarker abnormalities in presymptomatic and symptomatic genetic frontotemporal dementia using cross-sectional data from the Genetic Frontotemporal dementia Initiative (GENFI), a longitudinal cohort study. Two-hundred and seventy-five presymptomatic and 127 symptomatic carriers of mutations in GRN, C9orf72 or MAPT, as well as 247 non-carriers, were selected from the GENFI cohort based on availability of one or more of the aforementioned biomarkers. Nine presymptomatic carriers developed symptoms within 18 months of sample collection ('converters'). Sequences of biomarker abnormalities were modelled for the entire group using discriminative event-based modelling (DEBM) and for each genetic subgroup using co-initialized DEBM. These models estimate probabilistic biomarker abnormalities in a data-driven way and do not rely on previous diagnostic information or biomarker cut-off points. Using cross-validation, subjects were subsequently assigned a disease stage based on their position along the disease progression timeline. CSF NPTX2 was the first biomarker to become abnormal, followed by blood and CSF neurofilament light chain, blood phosphorylated neurofilament heavy chain, blood glial fibrillary acidic protein and finally CSF C3b and C1q. Biomarker orderings did not differ significantly between genetic subgroups, but more uncertainty was noted in the C9orf72 and MAPT groups than for GRN. Estimated disease stages could distinguish symptomatic from presymptomatic carriers and non-carriers with areas under the curve of 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.89) and 0.90 (0.86-0.94) respectively. The areas under the curve to distinguish converters from non-converting presymptomatic carriers was 0.85 (0.75-0.95). Our data-driven model of genetic frontotemporal dementia revealed that NPTX2 and neurofilament light chain are the earliest to change among the selected biomarkers. Further research should investigate their utility as candidate selection tools for pharmaceutical trials. The model's ability to accurately estimate individual disease stages could improve patient stratification and track the efficacy of therapeutic interventions.

Project description:BackgroundAlzheimer's disease and related dementia (ADRD) are characterized by multiple and progressive anatomo-clinical changes including accumulation of abnormal proteins in the brain, brain atrophy and severe cognitive impairment. Understanding the sequence and timing of these changes is of primary importance to gain insight into the disease natural history and ultimately allow earlier diagnosis. Yet, modeling changes over disease course from cohort data is challenging as the usual timescales (time since inclusion, chronological age) are inappropriate and time-to-clinical diagnosis is available on small subsamples of participants with short follow-up durations prior to diagnosis. One solution to circumvent this challenge is to define the disease time as a latent variable.MethodsWe developed a multivariate mixed model approach that realigns individual trajectories into the latent disease time to describe disease progression. In contrast with the existing literature, our methodology exploits the clinical diagnosis information as a partially observed and approximate reference to guide the estimation of the latent disease time. The model estimation was carried out in the Bayesian Framework using Stan. We applied the methodology to the MEMENTO study, a French multicentric clinic-based cohort of 2186 participants with 5-year intensive follow-up. Repeated measures of 12 ADRD markers stemmed from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), brain imaging and cognitive tests were analyzed.ResultsThe estimated latent disease time spanned over twenty years before the clinical diagnosis. Considering the profile of a woman aged 70 with a high level of education and APOE4 carrier (the main genetic risk factor for ADRD), CSF markers of tau proteins accumulation preceded markers of brain atrophy by 5 years and cognitive decline by 10 years. However we observed that individual characteristics could substantially modify the sequence and timing of these changes, in particular for CSF level of A[Formula: see text].ConclusionBy leveraging the available clinical diagnosis timing information, our disease progression model does not only realign trajectories into the most homogeneous way. It accounts for the inherent residual inter-individual variability in dementia progression to describe the long-term anatomo-clinical degradations according to the years preceding clinical diagnosis, and to provide clinically meaningful information on the sequence of events.Trial registrationclinicaltrials.gov, NCT01926249. Registered on 16 August 2013.

Dataset Information

A network diffusion model of disease progression in dementia.

Publications

A network diffusion model of disease progression in dementia.

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