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Variance-sensitive choice in lemurs: constancy trumps quantity.

ABSTRACT: Numerous studies have demonstrated that animals' tolerance for risk when foraging can be affected by changes in metabolic state. Specifically, animals on a negative energy budget increase their preferences for risk, while animals on a positive energy budget are typically risk-averse. The malleability of these preferences may be evolutionarily advantageous, and important for maximizing chances of survival during brief periods of energetic stress. However, animals adapted to living in unpredictable conditions are unlikely to benefit from risk-seeking strategies, and instead are expected to reduce energetic demands while maintaining risk-aversion. We measured risk preferences in lemurs, a group of primates restricted to the island of Madagascar. Lemurs have evolved diverse anatomical and behavioral traits for survival in a harsh and unpredictable ecology, and these traits have been explained as forms of anatomical and behavioral risk reduction. We therefore predicted that lemurs would also be risk-averse in a behavioral task that offered subjects a choice between a small certain reward, and an uncertain but potentially large reward. In Experiment 1, the average rewards associated with the constant and variable options were equal and lemurs exhibited high levels of risk-aversion, replicating a phenomenon that has been demonstrated in dozens of taxa. In Experiment 2, we gradually increased the average value of the variable option relative to the constant option. Lemurs' preferences tracked these changes and subjects became more risk-seeking as the risk premium increased. However, many subjects maintained high levels of risk-aversion even when the average payout of the variable option yielded double that of the constant option. These results are consistent with the notion that lemur cognition has evolved to minimize risk in an unpredictable island environment.

SUBMITTER: MacLean EL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3645319 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Variance-sensitive choice in lemurs: constancy trumps quantity.

MacLean Evan L EL Mandalaywala Tara M TM Brannon Elizabeth M EM

Animal cognition 20110614 1

Numerous studies have demonstrated that animals' tolerance for risk when foraging can be affected by changes in metabolic state. Specifically, animals on a negative energy budget increase their preferences for risk, while animals on a positive energy budget are typically risk-averse. The malleability of these preferences may be evolutionarily advantageous, and important for maximizing chances of survival during brief periods of energetic stress. However, animals adapted to living in unpredictabl ...[more]

PMID: 21670948

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Project description:Estimating and projecting population trends using population viability analysis (PVA) are central to identifying species at risk of extinction and for informing conservation management strategies. Models for PVA generally fall within two categories, scalar (count-based) or matrix (demographic). Model structure, process error, measurement error, and time series length all have known impacts in population risk assessments, but their combined impact has not been thoroughly investigated. We tested the ability of scalar and matrix PVA models to predict percent decline over a ten-year interval, selected to coincide with the IUCN Red List criterion A.3, using data simulated for a hypothetical, short-lived organism with a simple life-history and for a threatened snail, Tasmaphena lamproides. PVA performance was assessed across different time series lengths, population growth rates, and levels of process and measurement error. We found that the magnitude of effects of measurement error, process error, and time series length, and interactions between these, depended on context. We found that high process and measurement error reduced the reliability of both models in predicted percent decline. Both sources of error contributed strongly to biased predictions, with process error tending to contribute to the spread of predictions more than measurement error. Increasing time series length improved precision and reduced bias of predicted population trends, but gains substantially diminished for time series lengths greater than 10-15 years. The simple parameterization scheme we employed contributed strongly to bias in matrix model predictions when both process and measurement error were high, causing scalar models to exhibit similar or greater precision and lower bias than matrix models. Our study provides evidence that, for short-lived species with structured but simple life histories, short time series and simple models can be sufficient for reasonably reliable conservation decision-making, and may be preferable for population projections when unbiased estimates of vital rates cannot be obtained.

Dataset Information

Variance-sensitive choice in lemurs: constancy trumps quantity.

Publications

Variance-sensitive choice in lemurs: constancy trumps quantity.

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