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Fit-for-purpose: species distribution model performance depends on evaluation criteria - Dutch Hoverflies as a case study.

ABSTRACT: Understanding species distributions and the factors limiting them is an important topic in ecology and conservation, including in nature reserve selection and predicting climate change impacts. While Species Distribution Models (SDM) are the main tool used for these purposes, choosing the best SDM algorithm is not straightforward as these are plentiful and can be applied in many different ways. SDM are used mainly to gain insight in 1) overall species distributions, 2) their past-present-future probability of occurrence and/or 3) to understand their ecological niche limits (also referred to as ecological niche modelling). The fact that these three aims may require different models and outputs is, however, rarely considered and has not been evaluated consistently. Here we use data from a systematically sampled set of species occurrences to specifically test the performance of Species Distribution Models across several commonly used algorithms. Species range in distribution patterns from rare to common and from local to widespread. We compare overall model fit (representing species distribution), the accuracy of the predictions at multiple spatial scales, and the consistency in selection of environmental correlations all across multiple modelling runs. As expected, the choice of modelling algorithm determines model outcome. However, model quality depends not only on the algorithm, but also on the measure of model fit used and the scale at which it is used. Although model fit was higher for the consensus approach and Maxent, Maxent and GAM models were more consistent in estimating local occurrence, while RF and GBM showed higher consistency in environmental variables selection. Model outcomes diverged more for narrowly distributed species than for widespread species. We suggest that matching study aims with modelling approach is essential in Species Distribution Models, and provide suggestions how to do this for different modelling aims and species' data characteristics (i.e. sample size, spatial distribution).

SUBMITTER: Aguirre-Gutierrez J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3653807 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Rationale, aims and objectivesThe field of implementation science is critical for embedding research evidence into healthcare practice, benefiting individuals, organizations, governments, and the broader community. Implementation science is messy and complex, underpinned by many theories and frameworks. Efficacious interventions for older people with multiple comorbidities exist, yet many lack effectiveness evaluation relevant to pragmatic implementation within aged care practice. This article outlines the conceptualization and development of an Implementation Framework for Aged Care (IFAC), fit-for-purpose for an aged care organization, Bolton Clarke, intent on embedding evidence into practice.MethodA four-stage process was adopted to (1) explore context and relevant literature to conceptualize the IFAC; (2) identify key elements for a draft IFAC; (3) expand elements and refine the draft in consultation with experts and (4) apply the IFAC to three existing projects, identifying key learnings. A checklist to operationalize the IFAC was then developed.ResultsThe IFAC is grounded in codesign principles and encapsulated by the implementation context, from a social, cultural and political perspective. The IFAC addresses the questions of (1) why do we need to change?; (2) what do we know?; (3) who will benefit?; (4) who will make the change?; (5) what strategies will be used?; and (6) what difference are we making? Three pilot projects: early adoption of a Wellness and Reablement approach; a care worker and virtual physiotherapist-led program to prevent falls; and a therapeutic horticulture program for residential communities, highlight learnings of applying the IFAC in practice.ConclusionThis fit-for-purpose IFAC was developed for a proactive and responsive aged care provider. The simplicity of the six-question IFAC is underpinned by substantial theoretical perspectives for its elements and their connections. This complexity is then consolidated into an 18-question checklist to operationalize the IFAC, necessary to advance the translation of evidence into clinical practice.

Project description:Exosomes are defined as submicron (30-150 nm), lipid bilayer-enclosed extracellular vesicles (EVs), specifically generated by the late endosomal compartment through fusion of multivesicular bodies with the plasma membrane. Produced by almost all cells, exosomes were originally considered to represent just a mechanism for jettisoning unwanted cellular moieties. Although this may be a major function in most cells, evolution has recruited the endosomal membrane-sorting pathway to duties beyond mere garbage disposal, one of the most notable examples being its cooption by retroviruses for the generation of Trojan virions. It is, therefore, tempting to speculate that certain cell types have evolved an exosome subclass active in intracellular communication. We term this EV subclass "signalosomes" and define them as exosomes that are produced by the "signaling" cells upon specific physiological or environmental cues and harbor cargo capable of modulating the programming of recipient cells. Our recent studies have established that signalosomes released by mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSCs) represent the main vector of MSC immunomodulation and therapeutic action in animal models of lung disease. The efficacy of MSC-exosome treatments in a number of preclinical models of cardiovascular and pulmonary disease supports the promise of application of exosome-based therapeutics across a wide range of pathologies within the near future. However, the full realization of exosome therapeutic potential has been hampered by the absence of standardization in EV isolation, and procedures for purification of signalosomes from the main exosome population. This is mainly due to immature methodologies for exosome isolation and characterization and our incomplete understanding of the specific characteristics and molecular composition of signalosomes. In addition, difficulties in defining metrics for potency of exosome preparations and the challenges of industrial scale-up and good manufacturing practice compliance have complicated smooth and timely transition to clinical development. In this manuscript, we focus on cell culture conditions, exosome harvesting, dosage, and exosome potency, providing some empirical guidance and perspectives on the challenges in bringing exosome-based therapies to clinic.

Project description:Compliance with guideline removal targets for Cryptosporidium which do not provide any credit for the inactivation of oocysts through wastewater treatment processes can considerably increase the cost of providing recycled water. Here we present the application of an integrated assay to quantify both oocyst numbers and infectivity levels after various treatment stages at three Victorian and two South Australian (SA) wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Oocyst density in the raw sewage was commensurate with community disease burden, with early rounds of sampling capturing a widespread cryptosporidiosis outbreak in Victoria. The level of infectivity of oocysts in sewage was stable throughout the year but was significantly lower at the SA WWTPs. Removals across secondary treatment processes were seasonal, with poorer removals associated with inflow variability; however, no decrease in the oocyst infectivity was identified. For SA WWTPs, those oocysts remaining within the secondary treatment-clarified effluent were proportionally more infectious than those in raw sewage. Lagoon systems demonstrated significant inactivation or removal of oocysts, with attenuation being seasonal. Examination of a UV system emphasized its efficacy as a disinfectant barrier but conversely confirmed the importance of a multibarrier approach with the detection of infectious oocysts postdisinfection. The ability to characterize risk from infectious oocysts revealed that the risk from Cryptosporidium is significantly lower than previously thought and that its inclusion in quantitative risk assessments of reuse systems will more accurately direct the selection of treatment strategies and capital expenditure, influencing the sustainability of such schemes.IMPORTANCE Here we present the application of a recently developed integrated assay not only to quantify the removal of Cryptosporidium oocysts but also to quantify their infectivity across various treatment stages at five wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), thereby better measuring the "true effect" of the treatment train on oocyst risk reduction. For a number of the WWTPs analyzed in this study the risk, is significantly lower than previously thought. Therefore, the inclusion of oocyst infectivity in guideline values and in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has the potential to affect future treatment directions and capital expenditure.

Project description:Approximately 13% of the total UK workforce is employed in the health and care sector. Despite substantial workforce planning efforts, the effectiveness of this planning has been criticised. Education, training, and workforce plans have typically considered each health-care profession in isolation and have not adequately responded to changing health and care needs. The results are persistent vacancies, poor morale, and low retention. Areas of particular concern highlighted in this Health Policy paper include primary care, mental health, nursing, clinical and non-clinical support, and social care. Responses to workforce shortfalls have included a high reliance on foreign and temporary staff, small-scale changes in skill mix, and enhanced recruitment drives. Impending challenges for the UK health and care workforce include growing multimorbidity, an increasing shortfall in the supply of unpaid carers, and the relative decline of the attractiveness of the National Health Service (NHS) as an employer internationally. We argue that to secure a sustainable and fit-for-purpose health and care workforce, integrated workforce approaches need to be developed alongside reforms to education and training that reflect changes in roles and skill mix, as well as the trend towards multidisciplinary working. Enhancing career development opportunities, promoting staff wellbeing, and tackling discrimination in the NHS are all needed to improve recruitment, retention, and morale of staff. An urgent priority is to offer sufficient aftercare and support to staff who have been exposed to high-risk situations and traumatic experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic. In response to growing calls to recognise and reward health and care staff, growth in pay must at least keep pace with projected rises in average earnings, which in turn will require linking future NHS funding allocations to rises in pay. Through illustrative projections, we show that, to sustain annual growth in the workforce at approximately 2·4%, increases in NHS expenditure of 4% annually in real terms will be required. Above all, a radical long-term strategic vision is needed to ensure that the future NHS workforce is fit for purpose.

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Fit-for-purpose: species distribution model performance depends on evaluation criteria - Dutch Hoverflies as a case study.

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