Dataset Information

Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence.

Methods and findings

We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58%) of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%). With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%). Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men.

Conclusions

Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of H. pylori should be priorities for gastric cancer control efforts.

SUBMITTER: Yeh JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3660292 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

Yeh Jennifer M JM Hur Chin C Schrag Deb D Kuntz Karen M KM Ezzati Majid M Stout Natasha N Ward Zachary Z Goldie Sue J SJ

PLoS medicine 20130521 5

<h4>Background</h4>Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>We developed a population-based microsimulation mo ...[more]

PMID: 23700390

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectiveBoth variations in the interleukin-10 (IL10) gene and environmental factors are thought to influence inflammation and gastric carcinogenesis. Therefore, we investigated the associations between IL10 polymorphisms, Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection, and smoking in noncardia gastric carcinogenesis in Koreans.MethodsWe genotyped three promoter polymorphisms (-1082A>G, -819T>C, and -592 A>C) of IL10 in a case-control study of 495 noncardia gastric cancer patients and 495 sex- and age-matched healthy controls. Multiple logistic regression models were used to detect the effects of IL10 polymorphisms, H. pylori infection, and smoking on the risk of gastric cancer, which was stratified by the histological type of gastric cancer.ResultsThe IL10-819C and -592C alleles were found to have complete linkage disequilibrium, and all three IL10 polymorphisms were associated with an increased risk of intestinal-type noncardia gastric cancer. These associations were observed only in H. pylori-positive subjects and current smokers. A statistically significant interaction between the IL10-592 genotype and H. pylori infection on the risk of intestinal-type gastric cancer was observed (P for interaction = 0.047). In addition, H. pylori-positive smokers who were carriers of either the IL10-1082G (OR [95% CI] = 17.76 [6.17-51.06]) or the -592C (OR [95% CI] = 8.37 [2.79-25.16]) allele had an increased risk of intestinal-type gastric cancer compared to H. pylori-negative nonsmokers homozygous for IL10-1082A and -592A, respectively. The interaction between the IL10-1082 polymorphism and the combined effects of H. pylori infection and smoking tended towards significance (P for interaction = 0.080).ConclusionsInflammation-related genetic variants may interact with H. pylori infection and smoking to increase the risk of noncardia gastric cancer, particularly the intestinal-type. These findings may be helpful in identifying individuals at an increased risk for developing noncardia gastric cancer.

Project description:ImportanceGastric cancer is the fifth most common cancer worldwide, and investigating its incidence, characteristics, treatment, and outcomes over the past decades can help in selecting clinical strategies and future research directions.ObjectiveTo analyze the trends in incidence, staging, and treatment of gastric cancer.Design, setting, and participantsThis nationwide, population-based cohort study included patients diagnosed with noncardia gastric cancer (NCGC) between 1989 and 2021 in the Netherlands.Main outcomes and measuresDifferences in tumor characteristics, treatment, and survival were analyzed per fixed time periods (1989-1993, 1994-1998, 1999-2003, 2004-2008, 2009-2013, 2014-2018, and 2019-2021).ResultsIn total, 47 014 patients (median [IQR] age, 73 [64-80] years; 28 032 [60%] male patients) were identified with mostly adenocarcinomas of the antrum region (when location was known). Age-standardized incidence decreased from 20.3 to 6.1 per 100 000 person-years between 1989 and 2021. During the study period, unknown T and N stages were recorded less frequently, and metastatic disease was diagnosed more frequently (1989-1993: 2633 of 9493 patients [28%]; 2019-2021: 1503 of 3200 patients [47%] in 2019-2021). Over time, fewer patients with metastatic disease underwent surgery with or without other treatment modalities (68% in 1989-1993 vs 64% in 2019-2021), and palliative chemotherapy in metastatic NCGC increased from 9% to 40%. For patients with nonmetastatic disease, 5-year relative survival improved from 28% (95% CI, 26.5%-29.2%) to 36% (95% CI, 33.5%-37.6%) between 1989 and 2021. For patients with nonmetastatic disease undergoing a resection, 5-year survival increased from 40% (95% CI, 38.3%-41.8%) to 51% (95% CI, 47.9%-53.3%). For patients with metastatic disease, 1-year relative survival increased from 10% (95% CI, 8.7%-11.1%) to 19% (95% CI, 17.2%-21.6%), but 3-year relative survival remained poor at 5% (95% CI, 3.6%-7.5%).Conclusions and relevanceIn this nationwide cohort study involving 47 014 patients diagnosed with NCGC (1989-2021), the results showed a decrease in incidence, more accurate staging, a shift in treatment modalities, and improved patient survival.

Project description:Increasing noncardia gastric cancer incidence rates among individuals age younger than 50 years have gained much attention, particularly as causes remain unknown. Using population-based NIH/NCI's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program data from 2007 to 2015, multivariable logistic regression was used to quantify associations between race/ethnicity and clinicodemographic features among young-onset noncardia gastric cancer patients. A total of 2,872 individuals ages 20 to 49 years were diagnosed with primary noncardia gastric cancer. Age at diagnosis, insurance status, anatomic subsite, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) clinical stage, histologic type, tumor grade, surgery, and county-level smoking prevalence differed by race/ethnicity (all P ? 0.003). Compared with non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics were more likely to be diagnosed at younger ages [odds ratio (OR) = 0.97; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.95-0.99], on Medicaid/uninsured (OR = 3.83; 95% CI, 2.89-5.08), diagnosed with higher grade tumors (OR = 1.93; 95% CI, 1.32-2.84), and less likely to undergo surgery (OR = 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44-0.88) or to reside in counties with higher smoking prevalence (OR = 0.15; 95% CI, 0.11-0.21) after adjustment for sex, subsite, and histologic type. Asian/Pacific Islanders were more likely to be female (OR = 1.40; 95% CI, 1.04-1.88), and less likely to be diagnosed with metastatic disease (OR = 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.95) or to reside in counties with higher smoking prevalence (OR = 0.13; 95% CI, 0.08-0.19). Approximately two in every five patients with young-onset noncardia gastric cancer are Hispanic. Further investigation into the molecular heterogeneity of young-onset noncardia gastric cancers by race/ethnicity to understand etiologies underlying this rising disease epidemic is warranted. This population-based cohort study sheds light that biological and environmental factors may partly underlie race/ethnicity-related differences in young-onset noncardia gastric cancer susceptibility and outcomes.

Dataset Information

Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets