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CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score to assess risk of stroke and death in patients paced for sick sinus syndrome.

ABSTRACT: The risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) can be assessed by use of the CHADS2 and the CHA2DS2-VASc score system. We hypothesised that these risk scores and their individual components could also be applied to patients paced for sick sinus syndrome (SSS) to evaluate risk of stroke and death.Prospective cohort study.All Danish pacemaker centres and selected centres in the UK and Canada.Risk factors were recorded prior to pacemaker implantation in 1415 patients with SSS participating in the Danish Multicenter Randomized Trial on Single Lead Atrial Pacing versus Dual Chamber Pacing in Sick Sinus Syndrome (Danpace) trial. Development of stroke was assessed at follow-up visits and by evaluation of patient charts. Mortality was assessed from the civil registration system.Patients were randomised to AAIR (N = 707) or DDDR pacing (N = 708).Stroke and death during follow-up.Mean follow-up was 4.3 ± 2.5 years. In the AAIR group 6.9% patients developed stroke versus 6.1% in the DDDR group (NS). There was a significant association between CHADS2 score and the development of stroke (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.22 to 1.64, p < 0.001). CHA2DS2-VASc score was also significantly associated with stroke (HR 1.25; CI 1.12 to 1.40, p < 0.001). CHADS2 score (HR 1.46; CI 1.36 to 1.56, p < 0.001) and CHA2DS2-VASc score (HR 1.39; CI 1.31 to 1.46, p < 0.001) were associated with mortality. Results were still significant after adjusting for AF and anticoagulation therapy.CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score are associated with increased risk of stroke and death in patients paced for SSS irrespective of the presence of AF.

SUBMITTER: Svendsen JH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3664372 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score to assess risk of stroke and death in patients paced for sick sinus syndrome.

Svendsen Jesper Hastrup JH Nielsen Jens Cosedis JC Darkner Stine S Jensen Gunnar Vagn Hagemann GV Mortensen Leif Spange LS Andersen Henning Rud HR

Heart (British Cardiac Society) 20130328 12

<h4>Objective</h4>The risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) can be assessed by use of the CHADS2 and the CHA2DS2-VASc score system. We hypothesised that these risk scores and their individual components could also be applied to patients paced for sick sinus syndrome (SSS) to evaluate risk of stroke and death.<h4>Design</h4>Prospective cohort study.<h4>Settings</h4>All Danish pacemaker centres and selected centres in the UK and Canada.<h4>Patients</h4>Risk factors were recorded ...[more]

PMID: 23539553

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Project description:BACKGROUND:In people with atrial fibrillation (AF), periods of sinus rhythm present an opportunity to detect prothrombotic atrial remodeling through measurement of P-wave indices (PWIs)-prolonged P-wave duration, abnormal P-wave axis, advanced interatrial block, and abnormal P-wave terminal force in lead V1. We hypothesized that the addition of PWIs to the CHA2DS2-VASc score would improve its ability to predict AF-related ischemic stroke. METHODS:We included 2229 participants from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and 700 participants from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with incident AF who were not on anticoagulants within 1 year of AF diagnosis. PWIs were obtained from study visit ECGs before development of AF. AF was ascertained using study visit ECGs and hospital records. Ischemic stroke cases were based on physician adjudication of hospital records. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs of PWIs for ischemic stroke. Improvement in 1-year stroke prediction was assessed by C-statistic, categorical net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement. RESULTS:Abnormal P-wave axis was the only PWI associated with increased ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratio, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.33-2.55) independent of CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and that resulted in meaningful improvement in stroke prediction. The ? estimate was approximately twice that of the CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and thus abnormal P-wave axis was assigned 2 points to create the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc score. This improved the C-statistic (95% CI) from 0.60 (0.51-0.69) to 0.67 (0.60-0.75) in ARIC and 0.68 (0.52-0.84) to 0.75 (0.60-0.91) in MESA (validation cohort). In ARIC and MESA, the categorical net reclassification improvements (95% CI) were 0.25 (0.13-0.39) and 0.51 (0.18-0.86), respectively, and the relative integrated discrimination improvement (95% CI) were 1.19 (0.96-1.44) and 0.82 (0.36-1.39), respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Abnormal P-wave axis-an ECG correlate of left atrial abnormality- improves ischemic stroke prediction in AF. Compared with CHA2DS2-VASc, the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc is a better prediction tool for AF-related ischemic stroke.

Project description:PurposeAtrial fibrillation (AF) is a significant independent risk factor for 1-year mortality in patients with first acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The CHA2DS2-VASc score was initially developed to assess the risk of stroke in patients with AF. Recently, this scoring system has been demonstrated to have clinical value for predicting long-term clinical outcomes in AIS but the evidence is insufficient. This large-scale prospective cohort study investigated the independent predictive value of the score in such patients.MethodsWe included patients with AIS from the Taiwan Stroke Registry (TSR) during 2006-2016 as the present study population. Patients were divided into those with high (≥2) and low (<2) CHA2DS2-VASc scores. We further analyzed and classified patients according to the presence of AF. The clinical endpoint was major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) at 1 year after the index AIS.ResultsA total of 62,227 patients with AIS were enrolled. The median age was 70.3 years, and 59% of the patients were women. After confounding factors were controlled, patients with high CHA2DS2-VASc scores had significantly higher incidence of 1-year MACCEs (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.52, 1.76), re-stroke (adjusted HR = 1.28; 95% CI = 1.16, 1.42), and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 2.03; 95% CI = 1.83, 2.24) than those with low CHA2DS2-VASc scores did. In the comparison between AF and non-AF groups, the AF group had increased MACCEs (adjusted HR = 1.74; 95% CI = 1.60, 1.89), myocardial infarction (adjusted HR = 4.86; 95% CI = 2.07, 11.4), re-stroke (adjusted HR = 1.47; 95% CI = 1.26, 1.71), and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 1.90; 95% CI = 1.72, 2.10). The Kaplan-Meier curve revealed that both CHA2DS2-VASc scores and AF were independent risk predictors for 1-year MACCEs and mortality.ConclusionsThe CHA2DS2-VASc score and AF appeared to consistently predict 1-year MACCEs of AIS patients and provide more accurate risk stratification. Therefore, increased use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score may help improve the holistic clinical assessment of AIS patients with or without AF.

Dataset Information

CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score to assess risk of stroke and death in patients paced for sick sinus syndrome.

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CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score to assess risk of stroke and death in patients paced for sick sinus syndrome.

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