Dataset Information

Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a widespread agricultural pest.

ABSTRACT: Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat considering different sources of uncertainty in species distribution modelling.

SUBMITTER: Meynard CN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3684581 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a widespread agricultural pest.

Meynard Christine N CN Migeon Alain A Navajas Maria M

PloS one 20130617 6

Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetrany ...[more]

PMID: 23799105

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Project description:Environmental factors like temperature have a great impact on the predation potential of biological control agents. In the present study, the functional response of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (Acari: Phytoseiidae) to the pest mite Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Tetranychidae) at moderate to high temperatures under laboratory conditions was determined. The study aimed to understand the prey-predator interaction under different temperatures and prey densities. Five constant temperatures (24 °C, 27 °C, 30 °C, 33 °C, and 36 °C), and thirteen prey densities (4, 5, 8, 10, 12, 15, 16, 20, 24, 25, 30, 32, and 40) of each stage (adult, nymph, larvae, and egg stage) were employed in the experiment. Observations were made 24 h after the start of each experiment. Results revealed that the predatory mites showed type II functional response to adult females of T. urticae, whereas type I to other stages (nymphs, larvae, and eggs) of T. urticae. The predation capability of adult predatory mites on T. urticae was significant at 24-36 °C. The instantaneous attack rate (a) of N. californicus increased and the handling time (Th) decreased with an increase in temperature. The maximum attack rate was recorded at 36 °C (1.28) for the egg stage. The longest handling time was (0.78) for the larval stage of T. urticae at 30 °C. Daily consumption increased with increasing prey density. Maximum daily consumption was observed at 33 °C (30.00) at the prey density of 40. Searching efficiency decreased with the increase in prey density but was found to increase with the rise in temperature. N. californicus was found to be voracious on the larval and egg stages. Conclusively, the incorporation of N. californicus at earlier stages (larvae and eggs) of T. urticae would be beneficial under warm conditions because managing a pest at its initial stage will save the crop from major losses. The results presented in this study at various temperatures will be helpful in different areas with different temperature extremes. The results of the functional response can also be applied to mass rearing, quality testing, and integrated pest management programmes.

Project description:Soybean is one of the most important sources of food, protein, and oil in the world. Reductions in grain number and quality are caused by different biotic stresses. One of the most common is the phytophagous mite Tetranychus urticae Koch (Acari: Tetranychidae), which inhibits plant growth and grain production. The identification of plant responses to early and late T. urticae infestation is important for a better understanding of the mite-plant interaction. We therefore aimed to evaluate the physiological and molecular responses of soybean plants to mite infestation for 5 and 21 days. Visual and microscopic symptoms of leaf damage, H2O2 accumulation, and lipid peroxidation increased consistently throughout the infestation period, while shoot length/dry weight, chlorophyll level, and number of days to reach specific developmental stages were negatively affected by T. urticae infestation. Using proteomic analysis, we identified 185 and 266 differentially abundant proteins after early (5 days) and late (21 days) mite infestation, respectively, which suggests a complex remodeling of diverse metabolic pathways. GO, KEGG, and protein-protein interaction analyses indicated that photorespiration, chlorophyll synthesis, amino acid metabolism, Krebs cycle/energy production, mitochondrial translation, nucleotide salvage, PS II assembly, and reductive pentose-P cycle are all impacted after both early and late infestation. Specific metabolic pathways modified only after early infestation include cell wall modification, cytoskeleton composition, cell division, and lysine/histidine metabolism, while JA biosynthesis, antioxidant system, S-adenosyl methionine cycle, PS II repair, cysteine/methionine/glutathione/ascorbate/-linolenic acid/selenocompound metabolism, arginine biosynthesis, and proteasome are modified only after late infestation. These differentially abundant proteins can be used as biotechnological tools in future breeding programs aiming at increased resistance to mite infestation.

Project description:BackgroundThe mite Tetranychus merganser is considered to be an emerging pest of various crops in tropical countries. It is one of the most detrimental pests in the papaya orchards of some regions of México. The current field control of Tetranychus spp. involves the extensive use of chemicals that have some degree of toxicity to humans or the environment and may cause selective resistance. The use of biological alternatives such as parasitoids and mite predators have limited effectiveness. In order to find effective but non-toxic alternatives for mite pest management, bio-products that are able to be mass produced and applied to large production areas have been sought, including the entomopathogen fungi. B. bassiana and M. anisopliae s.l. are the fungi most extensively used for the biological control of insect pests. Although they do not cause natural epizootic diseases in mites, there are reports that show that they infect T. urticae, and should be evaluated for use in the biological control of papaya's mite pests.MethodsA T. merganser colony was established and the susceptibility of adult females to 30 entomopathogenic fungi strains was evaluated under laboratory conditions with an in vitro mass screening bioassay. Ten strains of Metarhizium anisopliae sensu lato (s.l.), eleven of Beauveria bassiana, nine of Lecanicillium sp. and one of Hirsutella thompsonii var. sinematosa were tested. The infectivity of adult females was evaluated calculating the percentage of mortality. To calculate the LC50 and LT50 of the most virulent strains, a bioassay was performed using serial concentrations (1×104-1×108 conidia/mL) for each strain. Strains showing ability to infect eggs laid were evaluated with a novel egg-infectivity bioassay. The internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of the more lethal strains were sequenced.ResultsT. merganser and T. urticae were found in orchards of Carica papaya (Maradol variety and Tainung hybrid) in Campeche, México. All tested strains of M. anisopliae s.l. and B. bassiana were infectious to the adult female of T. merganser at a concentration of 1×108 conidia/mL. Six strains of M. anisopliae (Ma002, Ma003, Ma004, Ma005, Ma014 and Ma034) caused 100% mortality, and one of B. bassiana (Bb016) caused 95% mortality. The most virulent was Ma034, with an LC50 of 1.73×106 conidia/mL followed by Ma005 and Ma003. Ma005 and Ma034 were the fastest strains to reach LT50,achieving this in less than 3.7 days. Additionally, Ma034 and Ma014 strains were infectious to more than 70% of the eggs.ConclusionsT. merganser and T. urticae are present in the papaya orchards of Campeche, México. The high susceptibility of T. merganser adult females and eggs toward several M. anisopliae s.l. or B. bassiana strains suggests that these fungi are a viable alternative to control this emergent pest. The most virulent strain, Ma034, was also infective to eggs, and is the most promising to be tested in the field.

Dataset Information

Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a widespread agricultural pest.

Publications

Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a widespread agricultural pest.

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