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Influenza Illness and Hospitalizations Averted by Influenza Vaccination in the United States, 2005-2011.

ABSTRACT: The goal of influenza vaccination programs is to reduce influenza-associated disease outcomes. Therefore, estimating the reduced burden of influenza as a result of vaccination over time and by age group would allow for a clear understanding of the value of influenza vaccines in the US, and of areas where improvements could lead to greatest benefits.To estimate the direct effect of influenza vaccination in the US in terms of averted number of cases, medically-attended cases, and hospitalizations over six recent influenza seasons.Using existing surveillance data, we present a method for assessing the impact of influenza vaccination where impact is defined as either the number of averted outcomes or as the prevented disease fraction (the number of cases estimated to have been averted relative to the number of cases that would have occurred in the absence of vaccination).We estimated that during our 6-year study period, the number of influenza illnesses averted by vaccination ranged from a low of approximately 1.1 million (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.6-1.7 million) during the 2006-2007 season to a high of 5 million (CI 2.9-8.6 million) during the 2010-2011 season while the number of averted hospitalizations ranged from a low of 7,700 (CI 3,700-14,100) in 2009-2010 to a high of 40,400 (CI 20,800-73,000) in 2010-2011. Prevented fractions varied across age groups and over time. The highest prevented fraction in the study period was observed in 2010-2011, reflecting the post-pandemic expansion of vaccination coverage.Influenza vaccination programs in the US produce a substantial health benefit in terms of averted cases, clinic visits and hospitalizations. Our results underscore the potential for additional disease prevention through increased vaccination coverage, particularly among nonelderly adults, and increased vaccine effectiveness, particularly among the elderly.

SUBMITTER: Kostova D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3686813 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Influenza Illness and Hospitalizations Averted by Influenza Vaccination in the United States, 2005-2011.

Kostova Deliana D Reed Carrie C Finelli Lyn L Cheng Po-Yung PY Gargiullo Paul M PM Shay David K DK Singleton James A JA Meltzer Martin I MI Lu Peng-Jun PJ Bresee Joseph S JS

PloS one 20130619 6

<h4>Context</h4>The goal of influenza vaccination programs is to reduce influenza-associated disease outcomes. Therefore, estimating the reduced burden of influenza as a result of vaccination over time and by age group would allow for a clear understanding of the value of influenza vaccines in the US, and of areas where improvements could lead to greatest benefits.<h4>Objective</h4>To estimate the direct effect of influenza vaccination in the US in terms of averted number of cases, medically-att ...[more]

PMID: 23840439

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Project description:BackgroundThere are few estimates of vaccination-averted influenza-associated illnesses in China.MethodsWe used a mathematical model and Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate numbers and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of influenza-associated outcomes (hospitalization, illness, and medically-attended (MA) illness) averted by vaccination among children aged 6-59 months in Suzhou from October 2011-September 2016. Influenza illnesses included non-hospitalized MA influenza illnesses and non-MA influenza illnesses. The numbers of influenza-associated outcomes averted by vaccination were the difference between the expected burden if there were no vaccination given and the observed burden with vaccination. The model incorporated the disease burden estimated based on surveillance data from Suzhou University Affiliated Children's Hospital (SCH) and data from health utilization surveys conducted in the catchment area of SCH, age-specific estimates of influenza vaccination coverage in Suzhou from the Expanded Program on Immunization database, and influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates from previous publications. Averted influenza estimations were presented as absolute numbers and in terms of the prevented fraction (PF). A hypothetical scenario with 50% coverage (but identical vaccine effectiveness) over the study period was also modeled.ResultsIn ~250,000 children, influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 731 (CI: 549-960) influenza hospitalizations (PF: 6.2% of expected, CI: 5.8-6.6%) and 10,024 (7593-12,937) influenza illnesses (PF: 6.5%, 6.4-6.7%), of which 8342 (6338-10,768) were MA (PF: 6.6%, 6.4-6.7%) from 2011 to 2016. The PFs declined each year along with decreasing influenza vaccination coverage. If 50% of the study population had been vaccinated over time, the estimated numbers of averted cases during the study period would have been 4059 (3120-5762) influenza hospitalizations (PF: 27.2%, 26.4-27.9%) and 56,215 (42,925-78,849) influenza illnesses (PF: 28.5%, 28.3-28.7%), of which 46,596 (35,662-65,234) would be MA (PF: 28.5%, 28.3-28.7%).ConclusionInfluenza vaccination is estimated to have averted influenza-associated illness outcomes even with low coverage in children aged 6-59 months in Suzhou. Increasing influenza vaccination coverage in this population could further reduce illnesses and hospitalizations.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:To evaluate the public health benefit of yearly influenza vaccinations, CDC estimates the number of influenza cases and hospitalizations averted by vaccine. Available input data on cases and vaccinations is aggregated by month and the estimation model is intentionally simple, raising concerns about the accuracy of estimates. METHODS:We created a synthetic dataset with daily counts of influenza cases and vaccinations, calculated "true" averted cases using a reference model applied to the daily data, aggregated the data by month to simulate data that would actually be available, and evaluated the month-level data with seven test methods (including the current method). Methods with averted case estimates closest to the reference model were considered most accurate. To examine their performance under varying conditions, we re-evaluated the test methods when synthetic data parameters (timing of vaccination relative to cases, vaccination coverage, infection rate, and vaccine effectiveness) were varied over wide ranges. Finally, we analyzed real (i.e., collected by surveillance) data from 2010 to 2017 comparing the current method used by CDC with the best-performing test methods. RESULTS:In the synthetic dataset (population 1 million persons, vaccination uptake 55%, seasonal infection risk without vaccination 12%, vaccine effectiveness 48%) the reference model estimated 28,768 averted cases. The current method underestimated averted cases by 9%. The two best test methods estimated averted cases with <1% error. These two methods also worked well when synthetic data parameters were varied over wide ranges (?6.2% error). With the real data, these two methods estimated numbers of averted cases that are a median 8% higher than the currently-used method. CONCLUSIONS:We identified two methods for estimating numbers of influenza cases averted by vaccine that are more accurate than the currently-used algorithm. These methods will help us to better assess the benefits of influenza vaccination.

Project description:Live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) is safe in healthy children ?2years. The original clinical trials excluded individuals with underlying conditions; however, post-marketing data suggest LAIV may be safe for these populations.We analyzed MarketScan Commercial Claims Databases from 2010 to 2012 to describe hospitalizations within 14days of vaccination among LAIV recipients. We evaluated LAIV recipients aged 2-18years and defined underlying conditions by presence of inpatient or outpatient ICD-9 code during the previous calendar year. We excluded asthma and immunocompromising conditions. We defined risk windows as 1-7days and 8-14days after vaccination; the control period was 12-4days prior to and 15-23days after vaccination. We conducted a self-controlled case series analysis using a conditional Poisson regression model to estimate incidence-rate ratios (IRR).1,216,123 children aged 2-18years received LAIV from 2010 to 2012. 634 children met our inclusion criteria and were hospitalized during the observation period (12days prior to vaccination to 23days after vaccination). Of those hospitalized, 72 (11.4%) had non-asthma, non-immunocompromising underlying conditions. Children with non-asthma, non-immunocompromising underlying conditions had an all-cause hospitalization IRR of 1.1 (95% CI 0.6-2.0, p=0.83) in the 1-7day risk period and 0.9 (95% CI 0.4-1.7, p=0.67) in the 8-14day risk period. Children with no underlying conditions had an all-cause hospitalization IRR of 0.9 (0.8-1.2, p=0.60) in the 1-7day risk period and 1.1 (95% CI 0.9-1.3, p=0.53) in the 8-14day risk period. There were no differences in all-cause hospitalization risk in individuals with non-asthma, non-immunocompromising underlying conditions compared to those without underlying conditions in the 1-7day (p=0.88) or 8-14day (p=0.24) risk period.We found no evidence of differences in post-LAIV hospitalization risk among children with non-asthma, non-immunocompromising underlying conditions compared to healthy children.

Dataset Information

Influenza Illness and Hospitalizations Averted by Influenza Vaccination in the United States, 2005-2011.

Publications

Influenza Illness and Hospitalizations Averted by Influenza Vaccination in the United States, 2005-2011.

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