Dataset Information

An evaluation and update of methods for estimating the number of influenza cases averted by vaccination in the United States.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:To evaluate the public health benefit of yearly influenza vaccinations, CDC estimates the number of influenza cases and hospitalizations averted by vaccine. Available input data on cases and vaccinations is aggregated by month and the estimation model is intentionally simple, raising concerns about the accuracy of estimates. METHODS:We created a synthetic dataset with daily counts of influenza cases and vaccinations, calculated "true" averted cases using a reference model applied to the daily data, aggregated the data by month to simulate data that would actually be available, and evaluated the month-level data with seven test methods (including the current method). Methods with averted case estimates closest to the reference model were considered most accurate. To examine their performance under varying conditions, we re-evaluated the test methods when synthetic data parameters (timing of vaccination relative to cases, vaccination coverage, infection rate, and vaccine effectiveness) were varied over wide ranges. Finally, we analyzed real (i.e., collected by surveillance) data from 2010 to 2017 comparing the current method used by CDC with the best-performing test methods. RESULTS:In the synthetic dataset (population 1 million persons, vaccination uptake 55%, seasonal infection risk without vaccination 12%, vaccine effectiveness 48%) the reference model estimated 28,768 averted cases. The current method underestimated averted cases by 9%. The two best test methods estimated averted cases with <1% error. These two methods also worked well when synthetic data parameters were varied over wide ranges (?6.2% error). With the real data, these two methods estimated numbers of averted cases that are a median 8% higher than the currently-used method. CONCLUSIONS:We identified two methods for estimating numbers of influenza cases averted by vaccine that are more accurate than the currently-used algorithm. These methods will help us to better assess the benefits of influenza vaccination.

SUBMITTER: Tokars JI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6666399 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

An evaluation and update of methods for estimating the number of influenza cases averted by vaccination in the United States.

Tokars Jerome I JI Rolfes Melissa A MA Foppa Ivo M IM Reed Carrie C

Vaccine 20181014 48

<h4>Introduction</h4>To evaluate the public health benefit of yearly influenza vaccinations, CDC estimates the number of influenza cases and hospitalizations averted by vaccine. Available input data on cases and vaccinations is aggregated by month and the estimation model is intentionally simple, raising concerns about the accuracy of estimates.<h4>Methods</h4>We created a synthetic dataset with daily counts of influenza cases and vaccinations, calculated "true" averted cases using a reference m ...[more]

PMID: 30327213

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundIn 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the number of people with podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia.MethodsWe used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 villages in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015.ResultsPodoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent. Discussion: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly.

Dataset Information

An evaluation and update of methods for estimating the number of influenza cases averted by vaccination in the United States.

Publications

An evaluation and update of methods for estimating the number of influenza cases averted by vaccination in the United States.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets