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Factors related to morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic heart failure with systolic dysfunction: the HF-ACTION predictive risk score model.

ABSTRACT: We aimed to develop a multivariable statistical model for risk stratification in patients with chronic heart failure with systolic dysfunction, using patient data that are routinely collected and easily obtained at the time of initial presentation.In a cohort of 2331 patients enrolled in the HF-ACTION (Heart Failure: A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing) study (New York Heart Association class II-IV, left ventricular ejection fraction ?0.35, randomized to exercise training and usual care versus usual care alone, median follow-up of 2.5 years), we performed risk modeling using Cox proportional hazards models and analyzed the relationship between baseline clinical factors and the primary composite end point of death or all-cause hospitalization and the secondary end point of all-cause death alone. Prognostic relationships for continuous variables were examined using restricted cubic spline functions, and key predictors were identified using a backward variable selection process and bootstrapping methods. For ease of use in clinical practice, point-based risk scores were developed from the risk models. Exercise duration on the baseline cardiopulmonary exercise test was the most important predictor of both the primary end point and all-cause death. Additional important predictors for the primary end point risk model (in descending strength) were Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire symptom stability score, higher serum urea nitrogen, and male sex (all P<0.0001). Important additional predictors for the mortality risk model were higher serum urea nitrogen, male sex, and lower body mass index (all P<0.0001).Risk models using simple, readily obtainable clinical characteristics can provide important prognostic information in ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure with systolic dysfunction.URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00047437.

SUBMITTER: O'Connor CM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3692371 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Factors related to morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic heart failure with systolic dysfunction: the HF-ACTION predictive risk score model.

O'Connor Christopher M CM Whellan David J DJ Wojdyla Daniel D Leifer Eric E Clare Robert M RM Ellis Stephen J SJ Fine Lawrence J LJ Fleg Jerome L JL Zannad Faiez F Keteyian Steven J SJ Kitzman Dalane W DW Kraus William E WE Rendall David D Piña Ileana L IL Cooper Lawton S LS Fiuzat Mona M Lee Kerry L KL

Circulation. Heart failure 20111123 1

<h4>Background</h4>We aimed to develop a multivariable statistical model for risk stratification in patients with chronic heart failure with systolic dysfunction, using patient data that are routinely collected and easily obtained at the time of initial presentation.<h4>Methods and results</h4>In a cohort of 2331 patients enrolled in the HF-ACTION (Heart Failure: A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing) study (New York Heart Association class II-IV, left ventricular ejecti ...[more]

PMID: 22114101

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Project description:ObjectivesThis study sought to examine the association between baseline beta-blocker (BB) dose and outcomes in the HF-ACTION (Heart Failure: A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise Training) trial.BackgroundBeta-blockers reduce morbidity and mortality in chronic heart failure (HF) patients with reduced ejection fraction, but it is unclear whether titrating to higher BB doses improves outcomes in this setting.MethodsThe HF-ACTION trial was a randomized, multicenter trial enrolling 2,331 ambulatory HF patients with systolic dysfunction (New York Heart Association functional class II to IV, left ventricular ejection fraction <0.35) randomized to exercise training versus usual care, with median follow-up of 2.5 years. The BB dose at baseline was standardized with carvedilol equivalents and analyzed as a continuous variable and by discrete dose groups. The relationship between BB dose and the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality or all-cause hospitalization and other cardiovascular secondary endpoints was determined before and after adjustment for variables significantly associated with outcomes in the HF-ACTION cohort.ResultsNinety-five percent of patients were receiving a BB. There was a significant inverse relationship between BB dose and all-cause death or hospitalization but not other cardiovascular endpoints after adjustment for other predictors of outcome, with a linear benefit up to the 50-mg daily dose. There was a significant association between BB dose and change in peak VO(2) at 3 months. There was no increase in bradycardia with higher doses of BB.ConclusionsThere was a significant inverse relationship between BB dose and the endpoint of all-cause death or all-cause hospitalization in this well-treated HF cohort with systolic dysfunction, supporting recommendations that titrating doses up to 50 mg/day might confer a benefit in such patients. (Exercise Training Program to Improve Clinical Outcomes in Individuals With Congestive Heart Failure; NCT00047437).

Project description:BACKGROUND:Most heart failure (HF) risk scores have been derived from cohorts of stable HF patients and may not incorporate up to date treatment regimens or deep phenotype characterization that change baseline risk over the short- and long-term follow-up period. We undertook the current analysis of participants in the GUIDE-IT (Guiding Evidence-Based Therapy Using Biomarker Intensified Treatment) trial to address these limitations. METHODS AND RESULTS:The GUIDE-IT study randomized 894 high-risk patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction (≤ 40%) to biomarker-guided treatment strategy vs. usual care. We performed risk modelling using Cox proportional hazards models and analysed the relationship between 35 baseline clinical factors and the primary composite endpoint of cardiovascular (CV) death or HF hospitalization, the secondary endpoint of all-cause mortality, and the exploratory endpoint of 90-day HF hospitalization or death. Prognostic relationships for continuous variables were examined and key predictors were identified using a backward variable selection process. Predictive models and risk scores were developed. Over a median follow-up of 15 months, the cumulative number of HF hospitalizations and CV deaths was 328 out of 894 patients (Kaplan-Meier event rate 34.5% at 12 months). Frequency of all-cause deaths was 143 out of 894 patients (Kaplan-Meier event rate 12.2% at 12 months). Outcomes for the primary and secondary endpoints between strategy arms of the study were similar. The most important predictor that was present in all three models was the baseline natriuretic peptide level. Hispanic ethnicity, low sodium and high heart rate were present in two of the three models. Other important predictors included the presence or absence of a device, New York Heart Association class, HF duration, black race, co-morbidities (sleep apnoea, elevated creatinine, ischaemic heart disease), low blood pressure, and a high congestion score. CONCLUSION:Risk models using readily available clinical information are able to accurately predict short- and long-term CV events and may be useful in optimizing care and enriching patients for clinical trials. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov ID number NCT01685840.

Project description:BackgroundSacubitril/valsartan has been approved for the management of heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction in adults. PANORAMA-HF trial (Prospective Trial to Assess the Angiotensin Receptor Blocker Neprilysin Inhibitor LCZ696 Versus Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor for the Medical Treatment of Pediatric HF) investigated its effects on clinical outcomes in pediatric patients with HF.MethodsPANORAMA-HF is a multicenter, Phase II/III study using an adaptive, seamless, 2-part design. The study aimed to evaluate the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of single doses of sacubitril/valsartan (Part 1), and the efficacy and safety of sacubitril/valsartan versus enalapril administered twice daily for 52 weeks (Part 2) in pediatric patients with HF due to left ventricular systolic dysfunction with biventricular heart physiology. An innovative trial design using a novel global rank assessment of severity was employed. For analysis, eligible patients were stratified into 3 age groups (Group 1, 6 to <18 years; Group 2a, 2 to <6 years; and Group 3a, 1 month to <2 years) and functional classification (New York Heart Association/Ross class I/II and III/IV).ResultsWe report the key demographic, baseline, and clinical characteristics of 375 pediatric patients randomized to receive the study medication. The mean age for patients in Groups 1, 2a, and 3a was 12.2, 3.2, and 1.3 years, respectively. About 70% of patients had a prior HF hospitalization, 85% had New York Heart Association/Ross class I/II HF, and ≈8% were angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker naïve.ConclusionsCompared to other pediatric HF studies, PANORAMA-HF recruited a relatively homogeneous pediatric HF population across 3 age groups, enabling a more robust evaluation of pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics and efficacy/safety of sacubitril/valsartan. Most patients had mildly symptomatic HF at baseline.RegistrationURL: https://www.Clinicaltrialsgov; Unique identifier: NCT02678312.

Project description:ImportanceAccurate prediction of risk of death or hospitalizations in patients with heart failure (HF) may allow physicians to explore how more accurate decisions regarding appropriateness and timing of disease-modifying treatments, advanced therapies, or the need for end-of-life care can be made.ObjectiveTo develop and validate a prognostic model for patients with HF.Design, setting, and participantsMultivariable analyses were performed in a stepwise fashion. Harrell C statistic was used to assess the discriminative ability. The derivation cohort was Prospective Comparison of ARNI With ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure trial (PARADIGM-HF) participants. The models were validated using the Aliskiren Trial to Minimize Outcomes in Patients with Heart Failure Trial (ATMOSPHERE) study and in the Swedish Heart Failure Registry (SwedeHF). A total of 8399 participants enrolled in PARADIGM-HF. Data were analyzed between June 2016 and June 2018.Main outcomes and measuresCardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, and the composite of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization at both 1 and 2 years.ResultsComplete baseline clinical data were available for 8011 patients in PARADIGM-HF. The mean (SD) age of participants was 64 (11.4) years, 78.2% were men (n = 6567 of 8399), and 70.6% were New York Heart Association class II (n = 5919 of 8399). During a mean follow-up of 27 months, 1546 patients died, and 2031 had a cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization. The common variables were: male sex, race/ethnicity (black or Asian), region (Central Europe or Latin America), HF duration of more than 5 years, New York Heart Association class III/ IV, left ventricular ejection fraction, diabetes mellitus, β-blocker use at baseline, and allocation to sacubitril/valsartan. Ranked by χ2, N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide was the single most powerful independent predictor of each outcome. The C statistic at 1 and 2 years was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70-0.73) for the primary composite end point, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71-0.75) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.73) for cardiovascular death, and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67-0.74) for all-cause death, respectively. When validated in ATMOSPHERE, the C statistic at 1 and 2 years was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68-0.71) for the primary composite end point, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72) for cardiovascular death, and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68-0.72) for all-cause death, respectively. An online calculator was created to allow calculation of an individual's risk (http://www.predict-hf.com).Conclusions and relevancePredictive models performed well and were developed and externally validated in large cohorts of geographically representative patients, comprehensively characterized with clinical and laboratory data including natriuretic peptides, who were receiving contemporary evidence-based treatment.

Project description:ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to evaluate the association between vasoactive-inotropic score (VIS), calculated in the 24 h after heart transplantation, and post-transplant mortality and morbidity.MethodsThis was an observational single-centre retrospective study. Patients admitted to surgical intensive care unit after transplantation, between January 2015 and December 2018, were reviewed consecutively. VISmax was calculated as dopamine+ dobutamine+ 100 × epinephrine + 100 × norepinephrine + 50 × levosimendan + 10 × milrinone (all in µg/kg/min) + 10 000 × vasopressin (units/kg/min), using the maximum dosing rates of vasoactive and inotropic medications in the 24 h after intensive care unit admission. The primary outcome was mortality at 1 year post-transplant. The secondary outcomes included length of stay, duration of mechanical ventilation and inotropic support and the occurrence of septic shock, ventilator-associated pneumonia, bloodstream infection or renal replacement therapy.ResultsA total of 151 patients underwent heart transplantation and admitted to intensive care unit. The median VISmax was 39.2 (interquartile range = 19.4-83.0). VISmax was independently associated with 1-year post-transplant mortality, as well as recipient age [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.004, P-value = 0.013], recipient gender (female to male: hazard ratio = 2.23, P-value = 0.047) and combined transplantation (hazard ratio = 2.85, P-value = 0.048). There was a significant association between VISmax and duration of mechanical ventilation (P-value < 0.001), length of stay (P-value = 0.002), duration of infused inotropes (P-value < 0.001), occurrence of bloodstream infections, septic shocks, ventilation-acquired pneumonia and renal replacement therapy.ConclusionsVISmax calculated during the first 24 h after postoperative intensive care unit admission in transplanted patients is independently associated with 1-year mortality. In addition, length of stay, duration of mechanical ventilation and infused inotropes increased with increasing VISmax.

Dataset Information

Factors related to morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic heart failure with systolic dysfunction: the HF-ACTION predictive risk score model.

Publications

Factors related to morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic heart failure with systolic dysfunction: the HF-ACTION predictive risk score model.

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