Dataset Information

Phenological indices of avian reproduction: cryptic shifts and prediction across large spatial and temporal scales.

ABSTRACT: Climate change-induced shifts in phenology have important demographic consequences, and are frequently used to assess species' sensitivity to climate change. Therefore, developing accurate phenological predictions is an important step in modeling species' responses to climate change. The ability of such phenological models to predict effects at larger spatial and temporal scales has rarely been assessed. It is also not clear whether the most frequently used phenological index, namely the average date of a phenological event across a population, adequately captures phenological shifts in the distribution of events across the season. We use the long-tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus (Fig. 1) as a case study to explore these issues. We use an intensive 17-year local study to model mean breeding date and test the capacity of this local model to predict phenology at larger spatial and temporal scales. We assess whether local models of breeding initiation, termination, and renesting reveal phenological shifts and responses to climate not detected by a standard phenological index, that is, population average lay date. These models take predation timing/intensity into account. The locally-derived model performs well at predicting phenology at the national scale over several decades, at both high and low temperatures. In the local model, a trend toward warmer Aprils is associated with a significant advance in termination dates, probably in response to phenological shifts in food supply. This results in a 33% reduction in breeding season length over 17 years - a substantial loss of reproductive opportunity that is not detected by the index of population average lay date. We show that standard phenological indices can fail to detect patterns indicative of negative climatic effects, potentially biasing assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change. More positively, we demonstrate the potential of detailed local studies for developing broader-scale predictive models of future phenological shifts.

SUBMITTER: Gullett P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3728930 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:The adaptive radiation of the seven-spined gobies (Gobiidae: Gobiosomatini) represents a classic example of how ecological specialization and larval retention can drive speciation through local adaptation. However, geographically widespread and phenotypically uniform species also do occur within Gobiosomatini. This lack of phenotypic variation across large geographic areas could be due to recent colonization, widespread gene flow, or stabilizing selection acting across environmental gradients. We use a phylogeographic approach to test these alternative hypotheses in the naked goby Gobiosoma bosc, a widespread and phenotypically invariable intertidal fish found along the Atlantic Coast of North America. Using DNA sequence from 218 individuals sampled at 15 localities, we document marked intraspecific genetic structure in mitochondrial and nuclear genes at three main geographic scales: (i) between Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Coast, (ii) between the west coast of the Florida peninsula and adjacent Gulf of Mexico across the Apalachicola Bay, and (iii) at local scales of a few hundred kilometers. Clades on either side of Florida diverged about 8 million years ago, whereas some populations along the East Cost show divergent phylogroups that have differentiated within the last 200,000 years. The absence of noticeable phenotypic or ecological differentiation among lineages suggests the role of stabilizing selection on ancestral phenotypes, together with isolation in allopatry due to reduced dispersal and restricted gene flow, as the most likely explanation for their divergence. Haplotype phylogenies and spatial patterns of genetic diversity reveal frequent population bottlenecks followed by rapid population growth, particularly along the Gulf of Mexico. The magnitude of the genetic divergence among intraspecific lineages suggests the existence of cryptic species within Gobiosoma and indicates that modes of speciation can vary among lineages within Gobiidae.

Dataset Information

Phenological indices of avian reproduction: cryptic shifts and prediction across large spatial and temporal scales.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets