Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: He D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3730600 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
He Daihai D Dushoff Jonathan J Day Troy T Ma Junling J Earn David J D DJ
Proceedings. Biological sciences 20130907 1766
Past influenza pandemics appear to be characterized by multiple waves of incidence, but the mechanisms that account for this phenomenon remain unclear. We propose a simple epidemic model, which incorporates three factors that might contribute to the generation of multiple waves: (i) schools opening and closing, (ii) temperature changes during the outbreak, and (iii) changes in human behaviour in response to the outbreak. We fit this model to the reported influenza mortality during the 1918 pande ...[more]