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Predicting and preventing postconcussive problems in paediatrics (5P) study: protocol for a prospective multicentre clinical prediction rule derivation study in children with concussion.

ABSTRACT: Persistent postconcussive symptoms (PCSs) is the persistence of somatic, cognitive, physical, psychological and/or behavioural changes lasting more than 1 month following concussion. Persistent concussion impacts the quality of life through impaired cognition, memory and attention affecting school performance, mood and social engagement. No large epidemiological studies have determined the true prevalence of persistent concussion symptoms. Validated, easy-to-use prognosticators do not exist for clinicians to identify children at highest risk. The goal of Predicting and Preventing Postconcussive Problems in Pediatrics study is to derive a clinical prediction rule for the development of persistent postconcussion symptoms in children and adolescents presenting to emergency department following acute head injury.This study is a prospective, multicentre cohort study across nine academic Canadian paediatric emergency departments. We will recruit the largest prospective epidemiological cohort of children with concussion. Eligible children will be followed using Post-Concussion Symptom Inventory, a validated tool in children as young as 5 years. Patients will follow-up at 1, 2, 4, 8 and 12 weeks postinjury. The main outcome will be the presence/absence of PCSs defined as three or more persistent concussion symptoms 1 month following the injury. 1792 patients provide adequate power to derive a clinical decision rule using multivariate analyses to find predictor variables sensitive for detecting cases of persistent postconcussion symptoms.Results of this large prospective study will enable clinicians to identify children at highest risk, optimise treatment and provide families with realistic and appropriate anticipatory guidance. Ethics has been obtained through the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario Research Ethics Board. Results will be disseminated at international conferences and in four manuscripts to peer-reviewed journals.This study is registered at Clinicaltrials.gov through the US National Institute of Health/National Library of Medicine (NCT01873287; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01873287).

SUBMITTER: Zemek R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3733307 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting and preventing postconcussive problems in paediatrics (5P) study: protocol for a prospective multicentre clinical prediction rule derivation study in children with concussion.

Zemek Roger R Osmond Martin H MH Barrowman Nick N

BMJ open 20130801 8

<h4>Introduction</h4>Persistent postconcussive symptoms (PCSs) is the persistence of somatic, cognitive, physical, psychological and/or behavioural changes lasting more than 1 month following concussion. Persistent concussion impacts the quality of life through impaired cognition, memory and attention affecting school performance, mood and social engagement. No large epidemiological studies have determined the true prevalence of persistent concussion symptoms. Validated, easy-to-use prognosticat ...[more]

PMID: 23906960

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Project description:Reaction time testing is widely used in online computerized concussion assessments, and most concussion studies utilizing the metric have demonstrated varying degrees of difference between concussed and non-concussed individuals. The problem with most of these online concussion assessments is that they predominantly rely on consumer grade technology. Typical administration of these reaction time tests involves presenting a visual stimulus on a computer monitor and prompting the test subject to respond as quickly as possible via keypad or computer mouse. However, inherent delays and variabilities are introduced to the reaction time measure by both computer and associated operating systems that the concussion assessment tool is installed on. The authors hypothesized systems that are typically used to collect concussion reaction time data would demonstrate significant errors in reaction time measurements. To remove human bias, a series of experiments was conducted robotically to assess timing errors introduced by reaction time tests under four different conditions. In the first condition, a visual reaction time test was conducted by flashing a visual stimulus on a computer monitor. Detection was via photodiode and mechanical response was delivered via computer mouse. The second condition employed a mobile device for the visual stimulus, and the mechanical response was delivered to the mobile device's touchscreen. The third condition simulated a tactile reaction time test, and mechanical response was delivered via computer mouse. The fourth condition also simulated a tactile reaction time test, but response was delivered to a dedicated device designed to store the interval between stimulus delivery and response, thus bypassing any problems hypothesized to be introduced by computer and/or computer software. There were significant differences in the range of responses recorded from the four different conditions with the reaction time collected from visual stimulus on a mobile device being the worst and the device with dedicated hardware designed for the task being the best. The results suggest that some of the commonly used visual tasks on consumer grade computers could be (and have been) introducing significant errors for reaction time testing and that dedicated hardware designed for the reaction time task is needed to minimize testing errors.

Project description:ImportanceConcussion may exacerbate existing mental health issues. Little evidence exists on whether concussion is associated with the onset of new psychopathologies or long-term mental health problems.ObjectiveTo investigate associations between concussion and risk of subsequent mental health issues, psychiatric hospitalizations, self-harm, or suicides.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based retrospective cohort study including children and youths aged 5 to 18 years with a concussion or orthopedic injury incurred between April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2020, in Ontario, Canada. Participants had no previous mental health visit in the year before the index event for cohort entry and no prior concussion or traumatic brain injury 5 years before the index visit. Data were collected from provincewide health administrative databases. Participants with concussion were included in the exposed cohort, and those with an orthopedic injury were included in the comparison cohort; these groups were matched 1:2, respectively, on age and sex.ExposuresConcussion or orthopedic injury.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was mental health problems, such as psychopathologies and psychiatric disorders, identified from health care visits in emergency departments, hospitalizations, or primary care settings. Secondary outcomes were psychiatric hospitalizations, self-harm health care visits, and death by suicide (identified in health care or vital statistics databases).ResultsA total of 152 321 children and youths with concussion (median [IQR] age, 13 [10-16] years; 86 423 [56.7%] male) and 296 482 children and youths with orthopedic injury (median [IQR] age, 13 [10-16] years; 171 563 [57.9%] male) were matched by age and sex. The incidence rates of any mental health problem were 11 141 per 100 000 person-years (exposed group) and 7960 per 100 000 person-years (unexposed group); with a difference of 3181 (95% CI, 3073-3291) per 100 000 person-years. The exposed group had an increased risk of developing a mental health issue (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.37-1.40), self-harm (aHR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.42-1.56), and psychiatric hospitalization (aHR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.41-1.53) after a concussion. There was no statistically significant difference in death by suicide between exposed and unexposed groups (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 0.90-2.61).Conclusions and relevanceAmong children and youths aged 5 to 18 years, concussion was associated with an increased risk of mental health issues, psychiatric hospitalization, and self-harm compared with children and youths with an orthopedic injury.

Project description:Concussion, also known as mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), commonly causes transient neurocognitive symptoms, but in some cases, it causes cognitive impairment, including working memory (WM) deficit, which can be long-lasting and impede a patient's return to work. The predictors of long-term cognitive outcomes following mTBI remain unclear, because abnormality is often absent in structural imaging findings. Previous studies have demonstrated that WM functional activity estimated from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has a high sensitivity to postconcussion WM deficits and may be used to not only evaluate but guide treatment strategies, especially targeting brain areas involved in postconcussion cognitive decline. The purpose of the study was to determine whether machine learning-based models using fMRI biomarkers and demographic or neuropsychological measures at the baseline could effectively predict the 1-year cognitive outcomes of concussion. We conducted a prospective, observational study of patients with mTBI who were compared with demographically matched healthy controls enrolled between September 2015 and August 2020. Baseline assessments were collected within the first week of injury, and follow-ups were conducted at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year. Potential demographic, neuropsychological, and fMRI features were selected according to their significance of correlation with the estimated changes in WM ability. The support vector machine classifier was trained using these potential features and estimated changes in WM between the predefined time periods. Patients demonstrated significant cognitive recovery at the third month, followed by worsened performance after 6 months, which persisted until 1 year after a concussion. Approximately half of the patients experienced prolonged cognitive impairment at the 1-year follow up. Satisfactory predictions were achieved for patients whose WM function did not recover at 3 months (accuracy = 87.5%), 6 months (accuracy = 83.3%), and 1 year (accuracy = 83.3%) and performed worse at the 1-year follow-up compared to the baseline assessment (accuracy = 83.3%). This study demonstrated the feasibility of personalized prediction for long-term postconcussive WM outcomes based on baseline fMRI and demographic features, opening a new avenue for early rehabilitation intervention in selected individuals with possible poor long-term cognitive outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundApproximately 10% to 20% of people with concussion experience prolonged post-concussion symptoms (PPCS). There is limited information identifying risk factors for PPCS in adult populations. This study aimed to derive a risk score for PPCS by determining which demographic factors, premorbid health conditions, and healthcare utilization patterns are associated with need for prolonged concussion care among a large cohort of adults with concussion.Methods and findingsData from a cohort study (Ontario Concussion Cohort study, 2008 to 2016; n = 1,330,336) including all adults with a concussion diagnosis by either primary care physician (ICD-9 code 850) or in emergency department (ICD-10 code S06) and 2 years of healthcare tracking postinjury (2008 to 2014, n = 587,057) were used in a retrospective analysis. Approximately 42.4% of the cohort was female, and adults between 18 and 30 years was the largest age group (31.0%). PPCS was defined as 2 or more specialist visits for concussion-related symptoms more than 6 months after injury index date. Approximately 13% (73,122) of the cohort had PPCS. Total cohort was divided into Derivation (2009 to 2013, n = 417,335) and Validation cohorts (2009 and 2014, n = 169,722) based upon injury index year. Variables selected a priori such as psychiatric disorders, migraines, sleep disorders, demographic factors, and pre-injury healthcare patterns were entered into multivariable logistic regression and CART modeling in the Derivation Cohort to calculate PPCS estimates and forward selection logistic regression model in the Validation Cohort. Variables with the highest probability of PPCS derived in the Derivation Cohort were: Age >61 years ([Formula: see text] = 0.54), bipolar disorder ([Formula: see text] = 0.52), high pre-injury primary care visits per year ([Formula: see text] = 0.46), personality disorders ([Formula: see text] = 0.45), and anxiety and depression ([Formula: see text] = 0.33). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.79 for the derivation model, 0.79 for bootstrap internal validation of the Derivation Cohort, and 0.64 for the Validation model. A limitation of this study was ability to track healthcare usage only to healthcare providers that submit to Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP); thus, some patients seeking treatment for prolonged symptoms may not be captured in this analysis.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that premorbid psychiatric conditions, pre-injury health system usage, and older age were associated with increased risk of a prolonged recovery from concussion. This risk score allows clinicians to calculate an individual's risk of requiring treatment more than 6 months post-concussion.

Dataset Information

Predicting and preventing postconcussive problems in paediatrics (5P) study: protocol for a prospective multicentre clinical prediction rule derivation study in children with concussion.

Publications

Predicting and preventing postconcussive problems in paediatrics (5P) study: protocol for a prospective multicentre clinical prediction rule derivation study in children with concussion.

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