Predictors for mortality due to acute exacerbation of COPD in primary care: Derivation of a clinical prediction rule in a multicentre cohort study.
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ABSTRACT: Background
In primary care (PC), 80% of the acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are treated. However, no predictive model has been derived or validated for use in PC to help general practitioners make decisions about these patients.Objectives
To derive a clinical prediction rule for mortality from any cause 30 days after the last PC visit.Methods
Between December 2013 and November 2014, we performed a cohort study with people aged 40 and over who were treated for AECOPD in 148 health centres in Spain. We recorded demographic variables, past medical history, signs, and symptoms of the patients and derived a logistic regression model.Results
In the analysis, 1,696 cases of AECOPD were included and 17 patients (1%) died during follow-up. A clinical prediction rule was derived based on the exacerbations suffered in the last 12 months, age, and heart rate, displaying an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.692-0.891) and good calibration.Conclusion
This rule stratifies patients into three categories of risk and suggests to the physician a different action for each category: managing low-risk patients in PC, referring high-risk patients to hospitals and taking other criteria into account for decision-making in patients with moderate risk. These findings suggest that it is possible to accurately estimate the risk of death due to AECOPD without complex devices. Future studies on external validation and impact assessment are needed before this prediction rule may be used in clinical practice.
SUBMITTER: Alameda C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8354163 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundClostridium difficile infection poses a significant healthcare burden. However, the derivation of a simple, evidence based prediction rule to assist patient management has not yet been described.MethodUnivariate, multivariate and decision tree procedures were used to deduce a prediction rule from over 186 variables; retrospectively collated from clinical data for 213 patients. The resulting prediction rule was validated on independent data from a cohort of 158 patients described by Bhangu et al. (Colorectal Disease, 12(3):241-246, 2010).ResultsSerum albumin levels (g/L) (P?=?0.001), respiratory rate (resps /min) (P?=?0.002), C-reactive protein (mg/L) (P?=?0.034) and white cell count (mcL) (P?=?0.049) were predictors of all-cause mortality. Threshold levels of serum albumin???24.5 g/L, C- reactive protein >228 mg/L, respiratory rate >17 resps/min and white cell count >12?×?10(3) mcL were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. A simple four variable prediction rule was devised based on these threshold levels and when tested on the initial data, yield an area under the curve score of 0.754 (P?<?0.001) using receiver operating characteristics. The prediction rule was then evaluated using independent data, and yield an area under the curve score of 0.653 (P?=?0.001).ConclusionsFour easily measurable clinical variables can be used to assess the risk of mortality of patients with Clostridium difficile infection and remains robust with respect to independent data.
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Project description:Readmission following COPD exacerbation is a common and challenging clinical problem. New approaches to predicting readmissions are required to help mitigate risk and develop novel interventions. We conducted a prospective cohort study in 82 COPD patients admitted due to an exacerbation of COPD. Lung function measures [spirometry, forced oscillation technique (FOT) indices and peak inspiratory flow rate (PIFR)], inflammatory biomarkers and patient-reported outcomes including previous exacerbation history, breathlessness, quality of life and frailty were measured at admission and discharge. We prospectively followed patients for 30 and 90 days to identify predictors for readmission. The readmission rate within 30 days was 38%, and 56% within 90 days. Previous exacerbations, higher COPD Assessment Test score at discharge, frailty, reduced PIFR and increased length of stay were significantly associated with 30-day readmission. PIFR at discharge and frailty had the highest predictive ability for 30-day readmission using area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.95, p < 0.001 and AUC 0.81, 95% CI 0.71-0.90, p < 0.001, respectively). Ninety-day readmissions were significantly associated with previous exacerbations and hospitalisations, higher CAT score at discharge, frailty, depression, lower PIFR and greater expiratory flow limitation (EFL) in the supine position. The best predictive variable in multivariable analysis for both 30- and 90-day readmission was PIFR at discharge. PIFR, CAT score, frailty, and EFL were found to be associated with 30- and 90-day readmission following COPD exacerbation. These findings help identify those at highest risk and to optimise care prior to discharge.
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Project description:OBJECTIVES: To determine which easily available clinical factors are associated with mortality in patients with stable COPD and if health-related quality of life (HRQoL) provides additional information. DESIGN: Five-year prospective cohort study. SETTING: Five outpatient clinics of a teaching hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Six hundred stable COPD patients recruited consecutively. MEASUREMENTS: The variables were age, FEV(1%), dyspnea, previous hospital admissions and emergency department visits for COPD, pack-years of smoking, comorbidities, body mass index, and HRQoL measured by Saint George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire (CRQ), and Short-Form 36 (SF-36). Logistic and Cox regression models were used to assess the influence of these variables on mortality and survival. RESULTS: FEV(1%)(OR: 0.62, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.75), dyspnea (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.2 to 3), age (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.6 to 3.6), previous hospitalization due to COPD exacerbations (OR 1.53, 1.2 to 2) and lifetime pack-years (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.2) were independently related to respiratory mortality. Similarly, these factors were independently related to all-cause mortality with dyspnea having the strongest association (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.2). HRQoL was an independent predictor of respiratory and all-cause mortality only when dyspnea was excluded from the models, except scores on the SGRQ were associated with all-cause mortality with dyspnea in the model. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with stable COPD, FEV(1%) was the main predictor of respiratory mortality and dyspnea of all-cause mortality. In general, HRQoL was not related to mortality when dyspnea was taken into account, and CRQ and SGRQ behaved in similar ways regarding mortality.
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