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Factors associated with change in exacerbation frequency in COPD.

ABSTRACT: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can be categorized as having frequent (FE) or infrequent (IE) exacerbations depending on whether they respectively experience two or more, or one or zero exacerbations per year. Although most patients do not change category from year to year, some will, and the factors associated with this behaviour have not been examined.1832 patients completing two year follow-up in the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points (ECLIPSE) study were examined at baseline and then yearly. Exacerbations were defined by health care utilisation. Patient characteristics compared between those patients who did or did not change exacerbation category from year 1 to year 2.Between years 1 and 2, 221 patients (17%) changed from IE to FE and 210 patients (39%) from FE to IE. More severe disease was associated with changing from IE to FE and less severe disease from FE to IE. Over the preceding year, small falls in FEV1 and 6-minute walking distance were associated with changing from IE to FE, and small falls in platelet count associated with changing from FE to IE.No parameter clearly predicts an imminent change in exacerbation frequency category.SCO104960, clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT00292552.

SUBMITTER: Donaldson GC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3733814 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Factors associated with change in exacerbation frequency in COPD.

Donaldson Gavin C GC Müllerova Hanna H Locantore Nicholas N Hurst John R JR Calverley Peter M A PM Vestbo Jorgen J Anzueto Antonio A Wedzicha Jadwiga A JA

Respiratory research 20130730

<h4>Background</h4>Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can be categorized as having frequent (FE) or infrequent (IE) exacerbations depending on whether they respectively experience two or more, or one or zero exacerbations per year. Although most patients do not change category from year to year, some will, and the factors associated with this behaviour have not been examined.<h4>Methods</h4>1832 patients completing two year follow-up in the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinal ...[more]

PMID: 23899210

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Project description:IntroductionCOPD exacerbation negatively impacts the patient's quality of life and lung function, increases mortality, and increases socioeconomic costs. In a real-world setting, the majority of patients with COPD have mild-to-moderate airflow limitation. Therefore, it is important to evaluate COPD exacerbation in patients with mild-to-moderate airflow limitation, although most studies have focused on the patients with moderate or severe COPD. The objective of this study was to evaluate factors associated with COPD exacerbation in patients with mild-to-moderate airflow limitation.MethodsPatients registered in the Korean COPD Subtype Study cohort were recruited from 37 tertiary referral hospitals in Korea. We obtained their clinical data including demographic characteristics, past medical history, and comorbidities from medical records. Patients were required to visit the hospital to document their COPD status using self-administered questionnaires every 6 months.ResultsA total of 570 patients with mild-to-moderate airflow limitation were enrolled. During the first year of follow-up, 30.5% patients experienced acute exacerbation, with exacerbations being more common in patients with poor lung function. Assessed factors associated with COPD exacerbation included COPD assessment test scores, modified Medical Research Council dyspnea assessment test scores, St George's Respiratory Questionnaire for COPD scores, a previous history of exacerbation, and histories of pneumonia and allergic rhinitis. Logistic regression tests revealed St George's Respiratory Questionnaire for COPD scores (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-1.04; P=0.034), a previous history of exacerbation (OR, 3.12; 95% CI, 1.35-7.23; P=0.008), and a history of pneumonia (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.06-3.25; P=0.032) as risk factors for COPD exacerbation.ConclusionOur results suggest that COPD exacerbation in patients with mild-to-moderate airflow limitation is associated with the patient's quality of life, previous history of exacerbation, and history of pneumonia.

Project description:BackgroundDemographic and disease characteristics have been associated with the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Using previously collected multinational clinical trial data, we developed models that use baseline risk factors to predict an individual's rate of moderate/severe exacerbations in the next year on various pharmacological treatments for COPD.MethodsExacerbation data from 20,054 patients in the ETHOS, KRONOS, TELOS, SOPHOS, and PINNACLE-1, PINNACLE-2, and PINNACLE-4 studies were pooled. Machine learning was used to identify predictors of moderate/severe exacerbation rates. Important factors were selected for generalized linear modeling, further informed by backward variable selection. An independent test set was held back for validation.ResultsPrior exacerbations, eosinophil count, forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent predicted, prior maintenance treatments, reliever medication use, sex, COPD Assessment Test score, smoking status, and region were significant predictors of exacerbation risk, with response to inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) increasing with higher eosinophil counts, more prior exacerbations, or additional prior treatments. Model fit was similar in the training and test set. Prediction metrics were ~10% better in the full model than in a simplified model based only on eosinophil count, prior exacerbations, and ICS use.ConclusionThese models predicting rates of moderate/severe exacerbations can be applied to a broad range of patients with COPD in terms of airway obstruction, eosinophil counts, exacerbation history, symptoms, and treatment history. Understanding the relative and absolute risks related to these factors may be useful for clinicians in evaluating the benefit: risk ratio of various treatment decisions for individual patients.Clinical trials registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02465567, NCT02497001, NCT02766608, NCT02727660, NCT01854645, NCT01854658, NCT02343458, NCT03262012, NCT02536508, and NCT01970878).

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Factors associated with change in exacerbation frequency in COPD.

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Factors associated with change in exacerbation frequency in COPD.

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