Dataset Information

Development of a predictive model for major adverse cardiac events in a coronary artery bypass and valve population.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Quality improvement initiatives in cardiac surgery largely rely on risk prediction models. Most often, these models include isolated populations and describe isolated end-points. However, with the changing clinical profile of the cardiac surgical patients, mixed populations models are required to accurately represent the majority of the surgical population. Also, composite model end-points of morbidity and mortality, better reflect outcomes experienced by patients.

Methods

The model development cohort included 4,270 patients who underwent aortic or mitral valve replacement, or mitral valve repair with/without coronary artery bypass grafting, or isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. A composite end-point of infection, stroke, acute renal failure, or death was evaluated. Age, sex, surgical priority, and procedure were forced, a priori, into the model and then stepwise selection of candidate variables was utilized. Model performance was evaluated by concordance statistic, Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of Fit, and calibration plots. Bootstrap technique was employed to validate the model.

Results

The model included 16 variables. Several variables were significant such as, emergent surgical priority (OR 4.3; 95% CI 2.9-7.4), CABG + Valve procedure (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.8-3.0), and frailty (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2-2.5), among others. The concordance statistic for the major adverse cardiac events model in a mixed population was 0.764 (95% CL; 0.75-0.79) and had excellent calibration.

Conclusions

Development of predictive models with composite end-points and mixed procedure population can yield robust statistical and clinical validity. As they more accurately reflect current cardiac surgical profile, models such as this, are an essential tool in quality improvement efforts.

SUBMITTER: Herman CR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3751077 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development of a predictive model for major adverse cardiac events in a coronary artery bypass and valve population.

Herman Christine R CR Buth Karen J KJ Légaré Jean-François JF Levy Adrian R AR Baskett Roger R

Journal of cardiothoracic surgery 20130730

<h4>Background</h4>Quality improvement initiatives in cardiac surgery largely rely on risk prediction models. Most often, these models include isolated populations and describe isolated end-points. However, with the changing clinical profile of the cardiac surgical patients, mixed populations models are required to accurately represent the majority of the surgical population. Also, composite model end-points of morbidity and mortality, better reflect outcomes experienced by patients.<h4>Methods< ...[more]

PMID: 23899075

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Project description:Low levels of antithrombin (AT) have been independently associated with prolonged intensive care unit stay and an increased incidence of neurologic and thromboembolic events after cardiac surgery. We hypothesized that perioperative AT activity is independently associated with postoperative major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery.We prospectively studied 1403 patients undergoing primary CABG surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) (http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT00281164). The primary clinical end point was occurrence of MACE, defined as a composite outcome of any one or more of the following: postoperative death, reoperation for coronary graft occlusion, myocardial infarction, stroke, pulmonary embolism, or cardiac arrest until first hospital discharge. Plasma AT activity was measured before surgery, after post-CPB protamine, and on postoperative days (PODs) 1-5. Multivariate logistic regression modeling was performed to estimate the independent effect of perioperative AT activity upon MACE.MACE occurred in 146 patients (10.4%), consisting of postoperative mortality (n = 12), myocardial infarction (n = 108), stroke (n = 17), pulmonary embolism (n = 8), cardiac arrest (n = 16), or a subsequent postoperative or catheter-based treatment for graft occlusion (n = 6). AT activity at baseline did not differ between patients with (0.91 ± 0.13 IU/mL; n = 146) and without (0.92 ± 0.13 IU/mL; n = 1257) (P = 0.18) MACE. AT activity in both groups was markedly reduced immediately after CPB and recovered to baseline values over the ensuing 5 PODs. Postoperative AT activity was significantly lower in patients with MACE than those without MACE. After adjustment for clinical predictors of MACE, AT activity on PODs 2 and 3 was associated with MACE.Preoperative AT activity is not associated with MACE after CABG surgery. MACE is independently associated with postoperative AT activity but only at time points occurring predominantly after the MACE.

Project description:ImportanceFractional flow reserve (FFR) is an invasive measurement used to assess the potential of a coronary stenosis to induce myocardial ischemia and guide decisions for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). It is not known whether established FFR thresholds for PCI are adhered to in routine interventional practice and whether adherence to these thresholds is associated with better clinical outcomes.ObjectiveTo assess the adherence to evidence-based FFR thresholds for PCI and its association with clinical outcomes.Design, setting, and participantsA retrospective, multicenter, population-based cohort study of adults with coronary artery disease undergoing single-vessel FFR assessment (excluding ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction) from April 1, 2013, to March 31, 2018, in Ontario, Canada, and followed up until March 31, 2019, was conducted. Two separate cohorts were created based on FFR thresholds (≤0.80 as ischemic and >0.80 as nonischemic). Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to account for treatment selection bias.ExposuresPCI vs no PCI.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was major adverse cardiac events (MACE) defined by death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, or urgent coronary revascularization.ResultsThere were 9106 patients (mean [SD] age, 65 [10.6] years; 35.3% female) who underwent single-vessel FFR measurement. Among 2693 patients with an ischemic FFR, 75.3% received PCI and 24.7% were treated only with medical therapy. In the ischemic FFR cohort, PCI was associated with a significantly lower rate and hazard of MACE at 5 years compared with no PCI (31.5% vs 39.1%; hazard ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.63-0.94]). Among 6413 patients with a nonischemic FFR, 12.6% received PCI and 87.4% were treated with medical therapy only. PCI was associated with a significantly higher rate and hazard of MACE at 5 years compared with no PCI (33.3% vs 24.4%; HR, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.14-1.65]) in this cohort.Conclusions and relevanceAmong patients with coronary artery disease who underwent single-vessel FFR measurement in routine clinical practice, performing PCI, compared with not performing PCI, was significantly associated with a lower rate of MACE for ischemic lesions and a higher rate of MACE for nonischemic lesions. These findings support the performance of PCI procedures according to evidence-based FFR thresholds.

Dataset Information

Development of a predictive model for major adverse cardiac events in a coronary artery bypass and valve population.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Development of a predictive model for major adverse cardiac events in a coronary artery bypass and valve population.

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