Dataset Information

Dengue dynamics and vaccine cost-effectiveness in Brazil.

ABSTRACT: Recent Phase 2b dengue vaccine trials have demonstrated the safety of the vaccine and estimated the vaccine efficacy with further trials underway. In anticipation of vaccine roll-out, cost-effectiveness analysis of potential vaccination policies that quantify the dynamics of disease transmission are fundamental to the optimal allocation of available doses. We developed a dengue transmission and vaccination model and calculated, for a range of vaccination costs and willingness-to-pay thresholds, the level of vaccination coverage necessary to sustain herd-immunity, the price at which vaccination is cost-effective and is cost-saving, and the sensitivity of our results to parameter uncertainty. We compared two vaccine efficacy scenarios, one a more optimistic scenario and another based on the recent lower-than-expected efficacy from the latest clinical trials. We found that herd-immunity may be achieved by vaccinating 82% (95% CI 58-100%) of the population at a vaccine efficacy of 70%. At this efficacy, vaccination may be cost-effective for vaccination costs up to US$ 534 (95% CI $369-1008) per vaccinated individual and cost-saving up to $204 (95% CI $39-678). At the latest clinical trial estimates of an average of 30% vaccine efficacy, vaccination may be cost-effective and cost-saving at costs of up to $237 (95% CI $159-512) and $93 (95% CI $15-368), respectively. Our model provides an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Brazil and incorporates the effect of herd immunity into dengue vaccination cost-effectiveness. Our results demonstrate that at the relatively low vaccine efficacy from the recent Phase 2b dengue vaccine trials, age-targeted vaccination may still be cost-effective provided the total vaccination cost is sufficiently low.

SUBMITTER: Durham DP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3755607 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Dengue dynamics and vaccine cost-effectiveness in Brazil.

Durham David P DP Ndeffo Mbah Martial L ML Medlock Jan J Luz Paula M PM Meyers Lauren A LA Paltiel A David AD Galvani Alison P AP

Vaccine 20130620 37

Recent Phase 2b dengue vaccine trials have demonstrated the safety of the vaccine and estimated the vaccine efficacy with further trials underway. In anticipation of vaccine roll-out, cost-effectiveness analysis of potential vaccination policies that quantify the dynamics of disease transmission are fundamental to the optimal allocation of available doses. We developed a dengue transmission and vaccination model and calculated, for a range of vaccination costs and willingness-to-pay thresholds, ...[more]

PMID: 23791696

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Project description:Background: Oseltamivir and zanamivir are recommended for treating and preventing influenza A (H1N1) worldwide. In Brazil, this official recommendation lacks an economic evaluation. Our objective was to assess the efficiency of influenza A chemoprophylaxis in the Brazilian context. Methods: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of oseltamivir and zanamivir for prophylaxis of influenza for high risk population, compared to no prophylaxis, in the perspective of Brazilian public health system. Quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and effectiveness data were based on literature review and costs in Brazilian real (BRL) were estimated from official sources and micro-costing of 2016's H1N1 admissions at a university hospital. We used a decision-tree model considering prophylaxis and no prophylaxis and the probabilities of H1N1, ambulatory care, admission to hospital, intensive care, patient discharge, and death. Adherence and adverse events from prophylaxis were included. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was converted to 2016 United States dollar (USD). Uncertainty was assessed with univariated and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Adherence to prophylaxis was 0.70 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54; 0.83]; adverse events, 0.09 (95% CI 0.02; 0.18); relative risk of H1N1 infection in chemoprophylaxis, 0.43 (95% CI 0.33; 0.57); incidence of H1N1, 0.14 (95% CI 0.11; 0.16); ambulatory care, 0.67 (95% CI 0.58; 0.75); hospital admission, 0.43 (CI 95% 0.39; 0.42); hospital mortality, 0.14 (CI 95% 0.12; 0.15); intensive care unit admission, 0.23 (95% CI 0.20; 0.27); and intensive care mortality, 0.40 (95% CI 0.29; 0.52). QALY in H1N1 state was 0.50 (95% CI 0.46; 0.53); in H1N1 inpatients, 0.23 (95% CI 0.18; 0.28); healthy, 0.885 (95% CI 0.879; 0.891); death, 0. Adverse events estimated to affect QALY in -0.185 (95% CI -0.290; -0.050). Cost for chemoprophylaxis was BRL 39.42 [standard deviation (SD) 17.94]; ambulatory care, BRL 12.47 (SD 5.21); hospital admission, BRL 5,727.59 (SD 7,758.28); intensive care admission, BRL 19,217.25 (SD 7,917.33); and adverse events, BRL 292.05 (SD 724.95). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was BRL -4,080.63 (USD -1,263.74)/QALY and -982.39 (USD -304.24)/H1N1 prevented. Results were robust to sensitivity analysis. Conclusion: Chemoprophylaxis of influenza A (H1N1) is cost-saving in Brazilian health system context.

Project description:IntroductionIn recent years, new technologies - noticeably ultra-portable echocardiographic machines - have emerged, allowing for Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHD) early diagnosis. We aimed to perform a cost-utility analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness of RHD screening with handheld devices in the Brazilian context.MethodsA Markov model was created to assess the cost-effectiveness of one-time screening for RHD in a hypothetical cohort of 11-year-old socioeconomically disadvantaged children, comparing the intervention to standard care using a public perspective and a 30-year time horizon. The model consisted of 13 states: No RHD, Undiagnosed Asymptomatic Borderline RHD, Diagnosed Asymptomatic Borderline RHD, Untreated Asymptomatic Definite RHD, Treated Asymptomatic Definite RHD, Untreated Mild Clinical RHD, Treated Mild Clinical RHD, Untreated Severe Clinical RHD, Treated Severe Clinical RHD, Surgery, Post-Surgery and Death. The initial distribution of the population over the different states was derived from primary echo screening data. Costs of the different states were derived from the Brazilian public health system database. Transition probabilities and utilities were derived from published studies. A discount rate of 3%/year was used. A cost-effectiveness threshold of $25,949.85 per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted is used in concordance with the 3x GDP per capita threshold in 2015.ResultsRHD echo screening is cost-effective with an Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio of $10,148.38 per DALY averted. Probabilistic modelling shows that the intervention could be considered cost-effective in 70% of the iterations.ConclusionScreening for RHD with hand held echocardiographic machines in 11-year-old children in the target population is cost-effective in the Brazilian context.HighlightsA cost-effectiveness analysis showed that Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHD) echocardiographic screening utilizing handheld devices, performed by non-physicians with remote interpretation by telemedicine is cost-effective in a 30-year time horizon in Brazil.The model included primary data from the first large-scale RHD screening program in Brazilian underserved populations and costs from the Unified Health System (SUS), and suggests that the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio of the intervention is considerably below the acceptable threshold for Brazil, even after a detailed sensitivity analysis.Considering the high prevalence of subclinical RHD in Brazil, and the significant economic burden posed by advanced disease, these data are important for the formulation of public policies and surveillance approaches.Cost-saving strategies first implemented in Brazil by the PROVAR study, such as task-shifting to non-physicians, computer-based training, routine use of affordable devices and telemedicine for remote diagnosis may help planning RHD control programs in endemic areas worldwide.

Project description:Summary Background The Brazilian state of Paraná conducted a mass vaccination campaign against dengue with the tetravalent attenuated vaccine CYD-TDV. The campaign targeted thirty endemic municipalities. The objective of this study was to assess the effectiveness of CYD-TDV in preventing symptomatic virologically confirmed dengue cases according to specific age groups in five of the municipalities. Methods A case-control study was carried out in the five most populous municipalities targeted by the vaccination, with a vaccine uptake of 25%. Symptomatic dengue cases were identified by the municipal health departments. The age groups targeted were 15–18 and 19–27 in four municipalities and 9–14 and 28–44 in one municipality. All cases were confirmed by real time reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). For each case, two controls were selected: a neighbourhood control and a workplace or school/college control, matched by age group. A conditional logistic regression model was used to determine the odds ratio for vaccination and the vaccine effectiveness. Findings Study participants included 618 RT-qPCR-confirmed dengue cases and 1,236 matched controls (with a non-reactive dengue IgM serologic test). Vaccine effectiveness against dengue due to any serotype was 11·1% (95% CI: –19·0%; 33·6%). Effectiveness against DENV-1 was 33·3% (95% CI: –5·0%; 57·6%) and against DENV-2 was –56·7% (95% CI: –142·2%; –5·0%). No DENV-3 was detected. The vaccine was significantly effective in the prevention of DENV-4 cases (VE = 93·3%; 95% CI: 47·7%; 99·2%). Interpretation CYD-TDV was effective in the prevention of symptomatic cases due to DENV-4, but not due to any serotype. The low dengue seroprevalence in the target population could possibly be related to these results. Funding This study was supported through a grant to the Sabin Vaccine Institute from Sanofi-Pasteur. Sanofi-Pasteur had no role in the study design, protocol development, data collection, analysis, or publication of results.

Project description:ObjectiveHIV genotype-resistance testing can help identify more effective antiretroviral treatment (ART) regimens for patients, substantially increasing the likelihood of viral suppression and immune recovery. We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of genotype-resistance testing before first-line ART initiation in Brazil.DesignWe used a previously published microsimulation model of HIV disease (CEPAC-International) and data from Brazil to compare the clinical impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of initial genotype testing (Genotype) with no initial genotype testing (No genotype).MethodsModel parameters were derived from the HIV Clinical Cohort at the Evandro Chagas Clinical Research Institute and from published data, using Brazilian sources whenever possible. Baseline patient characteristics included 69% male, mean age of 36 years (SD, 10 years), mean CD4 count of 347 per microliter (SD, 300/µL) at ART initiation, annual ART costs from 2012 US $1400 to US $13,400, genotype test cost of US $230, and primary resistance prevalence of 4.4%. Life expectancy and costs were discounted 3% per year. Genotype was defined as "cost-effective" compared with No Genotype if its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was less than 3 times the 2012 Brazilian per capita GDP of US $12,300.ResultsCompared with No genotype, Genotype increased life expectancy from 18.45 to 18.47 years and reduced lifetime cost from US $45,000 to $44,770; thus, in the base case, Genotype was cost saving. Genotype was cost-effective at primary resistance prevalence as low as 1.4% and remained cost-effective when subsequent-line ART costs decreased to 30% of baseline value. Cost-inefficient results were observed only when simultaneously holding multiple parameters to extremes of their plausible ranges.ConclusionsGenotype-resistance testing in ART-naive individuals in Brazil will improve survival and decrease costs and should be incorporated into HIV treatment guidelines in Brazil.

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Dengue dynamics and vaccine cost-effectiveness in Brazil.

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Dengue dynamics and vaccine cost-effectiveness in Brazil.

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