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Prediction model for prevalence and incidence of advanced age-related macular degeneration based on genetic, demographic, and environmental variables.

ABSTRACT: PURPOSE:The joint effects of genetic, ocular, and environmental variables were evaluated and predictive models for prevalence and incidence of AMD were assessed. METHODS:Participants in the multicenter Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) were included in a prospective evaluation of 1446 individuals, of which 279 progressed to advanced AMD (geographic atrophy or neovascular disease) and 1167 did not progress during 6.3 years of follow-up. For prevalent AMD, 509 advanced cases were compared with 222 controls. Covariates for the incidence analysis included age, sex, education, smoking, body mass index (BMI), baseline AMD grade, and the AREDS vitamin-mineral treatment assignment. DNA specimens were evaluated for six variants in five genes related to AMD. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were performed for prevalent and incident advanced AMD. An algorithm was developed and receiver operating characteristic curves and C statistics were calculated to assess the predictive ability of risk scores to discriminate progressors from nonprogressors. RESULTS:All genetic polymorphisms were independently related to prevalence of advanced AMD, controlling for genetic factors, smoking, BMI, and AREDS treatment. Multivariate odds ratios (ORs) were 3.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-7.1) for CFH Y402H; 3.7 (95% CI, 1.6-8.4) for CFH rs1410996; 25.4 (95% CI, 8.6-75.1) for LOC387715 A69S (ARMS2); 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1-0.7) for C2 E318D; 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1-0.5) for CFB; and 3.6 (95% CI, 1.4-9.4) for C3 R102G, comparing the homozygous risk/protective genotypes to the referent genotypes. For incident AMD, all these variants except CFB were significantly related to progression to advanced AMD, after controlling for baseline AMD grade and other factors, with ORs from 1.8 to 4.0 for presence of two risk alleles and 0.4 for the protective allele. An interaction was seen between CFH402H and treatment, after controlling for all genotypes. Smoking was independently related to AMD, with a multiplicative joint effect with genotype on AMD risk. The C statistic for the full model with all variables was 0.831 for progression to advanced AMD. CONCLUSIONS:Factors reflective of nature and nurture are independently related to prevalence and incidence of advanced AMD, with excellent predictive power.

SUBMITTER: Seddon JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3772781 | biostudies-literature | 2009 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction model for prevalence and incidence of advanced age-related macular degeneration based on genetic, demographic, and environmental variables.

Seddon Johanna M JM Reynolds Robyn R Maller Julian J Fagerness Jesen A JA Daly Mark J MJ Rosner Bernard B

Investigative ophthalmology & visual science 20081230 5

<h4>Purpose</h4>The joint effects of genetic, ocular, and environmental variables were evaluated and predictive models for prevalence and incidence of AMD were assessed.<h4>Methods</h4>Participants in the multicenter Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) were included in a prospective evaluation of 1446 individuals, of which 279 progressed to advanced AMD (geographic atrophy or neovascular disease) and 1167 did not progress during 6.3 years of follow-up. For prevalent AMD, 509 advanced cases wer ...[more]

PMID: 19117936

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Project description:PurposeTo expand our predictive models for progression to advanced stages of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) based on demographic, environmental, genetic, and ocular factors, using longer follow-up, time varying analyses, calculation of absolute risks, adjustment for competing risks, and detailed baseline AMD and drusen status.DesignProspective, longitudinal study.ParticipantsWe included 2937 individuals in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study, of which 819 subjects progressed to advanced AMD during 12 years of follow-up.MethodsCox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to calculate hazard ratios for progression. Covariates included demographic and environmental factors, 6 variants in 5 genes, baseline macular drusen size, and presence and type of advanced AMD in 1 eye at baseline. To assess the ability of risk scores based on all covariates to discriminate between progressors and nonprogressors, an algorithm was developed and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated. To validate the overall model, the total sample was randomly subdivided into derivation and test samples. Another model was built based on the derivation sample and assessed for calibration and discrimination in the test sample. Sample sizes needed for testing new treatments in clinical trials were estimated based on models with and without genetic variables.Main outcome measuresProgression to advanced AMD, including geographic atrophy and neovascular disease.ResultsIn multivariate models, age, smoking, body mass index, single nucleotide polymorphisms in the CFH, ARMS2/HTRA1, C3, C2, and CFB genes, as well as presence of advanced AMD in 1 eye and drusen size in both eyes were all independently associated with progression. The AUC for progression at 10 years in the model with genetic factors, drusen size, and environmental covariates was 0.915 in the total sample. In the test sample, based on a model estimated from the derivation sample, the AUC was 0.908. The sample sizes needed for clinical trials were estimated to be lower when genetic susceptibility was considered.ConclusionsFactors reflective of nature and nurture were incorporated into an expanded algorithm for risk prediction, which performed very well in both derivation and test samples. Risk scores and predicted progression rates will be useful for AMD surveillance and for designing clinical trials.Financial disclosure(s)Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Project description:Purpose This study aimed to estimate the incidence and prevalence of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) in the French population between 2008 and 2018. Design This was a retrospective, longitudinal population study using health care consumption data from the Système National des Données de Santé (SNDS; the French National Health Information Database), which covers approximately 99% of the French population. Participants We identified individuals treated for nAMD from the French population 50 years of age and older. Identification criteria were nAMD diagnosis or reimbursement of nAMD treatments (anti–vascular endothelial growth factor intravitreal injection or dynamic phototherapy with verteporfin). Exclusion criteria were high myopia, diagnosis of other retinal diseases, and other treatments for macular diseases (dexamethasone implant, laser therapy, etc.). Methods We calculated incidence and prevalence based on the age-matched general population in France. Adjustment for age and sex was also performed for incidence. Main Outcome Measures Incidence and prevalence of nAMD in the French population between 2008 and 2018. Results Between 2008 and 2018, we identified 342 961 patients with nAMD (67.5% women). Mean ± standard deviation age at nAMD diagnosis or first treatment increased from 78.8 ± 8.1 years in 2008 to 81.2 ± 7.9 years in 2018. In 2018, annual incidence was 0.149% and prevalence was 1.062% for the French population 50 years of age or older. Incidence was stable over the 10-year period. Annual incidence increased with age (0.223%, 0.380%, and 0.603% in those 60 years of age or older, 70 years of age or older, and 80 years of age or older, respectively), with similar trends for prevalence. No major differences were observed among the 14 regions of France for incidence or prevalence. Neovascular age-related macular degeneration incidence in 2018 was not impacted by the availability of primary or ophthalmology care in patients’ localities. Conclusions The LANDSCAPE study provides exhaustive nationwide data on incidence and prevalence of nAMD in France over a 10-year period.

Project description:To evaluate the association between pseudodrusen and incidence of late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in fellow eyes of patients with unilateral neovascular AMD (nAMD).Cohort study within the Comparison of AMD Treatments Trials (CATT).Patients with neither nAMD nor geographic atrophy (GA) in the fellow eye at baseline.Presence and type (dot, reticular, or confluent) of baseline pseudodrusen were assessed using digital color fundus photography (CFP) viewed under full color, green channel, and blue channel; red-free images; and fluorescein angiography (FA). Incidence of nAMD was based on monthly clinical examination and reading center evaluation of images at years 1 and 2. Incidence of GA was based on reading center evaluation of CFP and FA images at years 1 and 2. Associations of baseline pseudodrusen with incident nAMD and GA were summarized with adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from multivariate Cox models, with adjustment of covariates identified through backward stepwise selection.Incident nAMD and GA.Among 620 fellow eyes, 176 (28.4%) had baseline pseudodrusen (55% dot, 82% reticular, 35% confluent). Within 2 years, nAMD occurred in 54 eyes (30.7%) with pseudodrusen and in 72 eyes (16.2%) without pseudodrusen (aRR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.43-2.93); GA occurred in 27 eyes (15.3%) with pseudodrusen and in 37 eyes (8.3%) without pseudodrusen (aRR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.13-3.17); late AMD occurred in 73 eyes (41.5%) with pseudodrusen and in 101 eyes (22.8%) without pseudodrusen (aRR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.51-2.83). Dot pseudodrusen were associated independently with nAMD (aRR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.60-4.00), whereas confluent pseudodrusen were associated independently with GA (aRR, 4.35; 95% CI, 1.69-11.2). Eyes with pseudodrusen had increased incidence of late AMD regardless of whether the Age-Related Eye Diseases Study (AREDS) severity score was 2 (28.7% vs. 10.3%), 3 (34.9% vs. 13.7%), or 4 (50.5% vs. 32.0%).In fellow eyes of CATT participants, pseudodrusen were associated independently with a higher incidence of both nAMD and GA. Dot pseudodrusen were associated with nAMD, whereas confluent pseudodrusen were associated with GA. Pseudodrusen should be considered along with the AREDS severity score for predicting late AMD.

Project description:PurposeTo report the natural history of untreated neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) regarding subsequent macular atrophy.DesignProspective cohort within a randomized, controlled trial of oral micronutrient supplements.ParticipantsAge-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) participants (55-80 years) who demonstrated nAMD during follow-up (1992-2005), prior to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy.MethodsColor fundus photographs were collected at annual study visits and graded centrally for late age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Incident macular atrophy after nAMD was examined by Kaplan-Meier analysis and proportional hazards regression.Main outcome measuresIncident macular atrophy after nAMD.ResultsOf the 4757 AREDS participants, 708 eyes (627 participants) demonstrated nAMD during follow-up and were eligible. The cumulative risks of incident macular atrophy after untreated nAMD were 9.6% (standard error, 1.2%), 31.4% (standard error, 2.2%), 43.1% (standard error, 2.6%), and 61.5% (standard error, 4.3%) at 2, 5, 7, and 10 years, respectively. This corresponded to a linear risk of 6.5% per year. The cumulative risk of central involvement was 30.4% (standard error, 3.2%), 43.4% (standard error, 3.8%), and 57.0% (standard error, 4.8%) at first appearance of atrophy, 2 years, and 5 years, respectively. Geographic atrophy (GA) in the fellow eye was associated with increased risk of macular atrophy (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-2.49; P = 0.006). However, higher 52-single nucleotide polymorphism AMD genetic risk score was not associated with increased risk of macular atrophy (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.90-1.17; P = 0.67). Similarly, no significant differences were observed according to SNPs at CFH, ARMS2, or C3.ConclusionsThe rate of incident macular atrophy after untreated nAMD is relatively high, increasing linearly over time and affecting half of eyes by 8 years. Hence, factors other than anti-VEGF therapy are involved in atrophy development, including natural progression to GA. Comparison with studies of treated nAMD suggests it may not be necessary to invoke a large effect of anti-VEGF therapy on inciting macular atrophy, although a contribution remains possible. Central involvement is present in one third of eyes at the outset (similar to pure GA) and increases linearly to half at 3 years.

Dataset Information

Prediction model for prevalence and incidence of advanced age-related macular degeneration based on genetic, demographic, and environmental variables.

Publications

Prediction model for prevalence and incidence of advanced age-related macular degeneration based on genetic, demographic, and environmental variables.

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