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Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification.

ABSTRACT: An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision maker's prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay's predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people's explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known "marshmallow test"). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one's environment.

SUBMITTER: McGuire JT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3773987 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification.

McGuire Joseph T JT Kable Joseph W JW

Psychological review 20130304 2

An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will mater ...[more]

PMID: 23458085

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Project description:Self-control, defined as the ability to forgo immediate satisfaction in favor of better pay-offs in the future, has been extensively studied, revealing enormous variation between and within species. Horses are interesting in this regard because as a grazing species they are expected to show low self-control whereas its social complexity might be linked to high self-control abilities. Additionally, self-control may be a key factor in training and/or coping with potentially stressful husbandry conditions. We assessed horses' self-control abilities in a simplified delay of gratification test that can be easily implemented in a farm setting. In Experiment 1, we gave horses (N = 52) the choice between an immediately available low-quality reward and a delayed high-quality reward that could only be obtained if the horse refrained from consuming the immediate reward. Different experimenters (N = 30) that underwent prior training in the procedures, tested horses in two test phases either with their eyes visible or invisible (sunglasses). Twenty horses waited up to the maximum delay stage of 60 s while all horses performed worse in the second test phase. In Experiment 2, we improved the test procedure (i.e., one experimenter, refined criterion for success), and tested 30 additional horses in a quality and quantity condition (one reward vs. delayed bigger reward). Two horses successfully waited for 60 s (quality: N = 1, quantity: N = 1). Horses tolerated higher delays, if they were first tested in the quantity condition. Furthermore, horses that were fed hay ad libitum, instead of in a restricted manner, reached higher delays. Coping behaviors (e.g., looking away, head movements, pawing, and increasing distance to reward) facilitated waiting success and horses were able to anticipate the upcoming delay duration as indicated by non-random distributions of giving-up times. We found no correlations between owner-assessed traits (e.g., trainability and patience) and individual performance in the test. These results suggest that horses are able to exert self-control in a delay of gratification paradigm similar to other domesticated species. Our simplified paradigm could be used to gather large scale data, e.g., to investigate the role of self-control in trainability or success in equestrian sports.

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Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification.

Publications

Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification.

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