Dataset Information

Pandemic influenza A/H1N1pdm in Italy: age, risk and population susceptibility.

ABSTRACT:

Background

A common pattern emerging from several studies evaluating the impact of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza (A/H1N1pdm) conducted in countries worldwide is the low attack rate observed in elderly compared to that observed in children and young adults. The biological or social mechanisms responsible for the observed age-specific risk of infection are still to be deeply investigated.

Methods

The level of immunity against the A/H1N1pdm in pre and post pandemic sera was determined using left over sera taken for diagnostic purposes or routine ascertainment obtained from clinical laboratories. The antibody titres were measured by the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. To investigate whether certain age groups had higher risk of infection the presence of protective antibody (?1?40), was calculated using exact binomial 95% CI on both pre- and post- pandemic serological data in the age groups considered. To estimate age-specific susceptibility to infection we used an age-structured SEIR model.

Results

By comparing pre- and post-pandemic serological data in Italy we found age- specific attack rates similar to those observed in other countries. Cumulative attack rate at the end of the first A/H1N1pdm season in Italy was estimated to be 16.3% (95% CI 9.4%-23.1%). Modeling results allow ruling out the hypothesis that only age-specific characteristics of the contact network and levels of pre-pandemic immunity are responsible for the observed age-specific risk of infection. This means that age-specific susceptibility to infection, suspected to play an important role in the pandemic, was not only determined by pre-pandemic levels of H1N1pdm antibody measured by HI.

Conclusions

Our results claim for new studies to better identify the biological mechanisms, which might have determined the observed pattern of susceptibility with age. Moreover, our results highlight the need to obtain early estimates of differential susceptibility with age in any future pandemics to obtain more reliable real time estimates of critical epidemiological parameters.

SUBMITTER: Merler S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3792117 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Pandemic influenza A/H1N1pdm in Italy: age, risk and population susceptibility.

Merler Stefano S Ajelli Marco M Camilloni Barbara B Puzelli Simona S Bella Antonino A Rota Maria Cristina MC Tozzi Alberto Eugenio AE Muraca Maurizio M Meledandri Marcello M Iorio Anna Maria AM Donatelli Isabella I Rizzo Caterina C

PloS one 20131007 10

<h4>Background</h4>A common pattern emerging from several studies evaluating the impact of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza (A/H1N1pdm) conducted in countries worldwide is the low attack rate observed in elderly compared to that observed in children and young adults. The biological or social mechanisms responsible for the observed age-specific risk of infection are still to be deeply investigated.<h4>Methods</h4>The level of immunity against the A/H1N1pdm in pre and post pandemic sera was dete ...[more]

PMID: 24116010

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Project description:BackgroundFor the diagnosis of seasonal influenza, clinicians rely on point-of-care testing (POCT) using commercially available kits developed against seasonal influenza viruses. However, POCT has not yet been established for the diagnosis of pandemic influenza A virus (H1N1pdm) infection due to the low sensitivity of the existing kits for H1N1pdm.Methodology/principal findingsAn immunochromatography (IC) test kit was developed based on a monoclonal antibody against H1N1pdm, which does not cross-react with seasonal influenza A or B viruses. The efficacy of this kit (PDM-IC kit) for the diagnosis of H1N1pdm infection was compared with that of an existing kit for the detection of seasonal influenza viruses (SEA-IC kit). Nasal swabs (n = 542) were obtained from patients with flu-like syndrome at 13 clinics in Osaka, Japan during the winter of 2010/2011. Among the 542 samples, randomly selected 332 were further evaluated for viral presence by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The PDM-IC kit versus the SEA-IC kit showed higher sensitivity to and specificity for H1N1pdm, despite several inconsistencies between the two kits or between the kits and RT-PCR. Consequently, greater numbers of false-negative and false-positive cases were documented when the SEA-IC kit was employed. Significant correlation coefficients for sensitivity, specificity, and negative prediction values between the two kits were observed at individual clinics, indicating that the results could be affected by clinic-related techniques for sampling and kit handling. Importantly, many patients (especially influenza-negative cases) were prescribed anti-influenza drugs that were incongruous with their condition, largely due to physician preference for patient responses to questionnaires and patient symptomology, as opposed to actual viral presence.Conclusions/significanceConcomitant use of SEA-IC and PDM-IC kits increased the likelihood of correct influenza diagnosis. Increasing the credibility of POCT is anticipated to decrease the inappropriate dispensing of anti-influenza drugs, thereby minimizing the emergence of drug-resistant H1N1pdm strains.

Project description:BackgroundPandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications?MethodsWe estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled.ResultsFor nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact.ConclusionsIn all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence of the emerging virus and is moderated by immunity of past experience. In this study, we found that after immune escape, older age groups showed no further mortality reduction, despite their being the principal target of conventional influenza vaccines. Vaccines incorporating variants of pandemic viruses seem to provide little benefit to those previously immune. If attack rates truly are similar across pandemics, it must be the case that immunity to the pandemic virus does not prevent infection, but only mitigates the consequences.

Dataset Information

Pandemic influenza A/H1N1pdm in Italy: age, risk and population susceptibility.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Pandemic influenza A/H1N1pdm in Italy: age, risk and population susceptibility.

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