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Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands.

ABSTRACT: The human population is expected to reach ?9 billion by 2050. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy would intensify land-use conflicts and exacerbate environmental impacts. Therefore we urgently need to reconcile our growing consumptive needs with environmental protection. Here, we explore the potential of a land-use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural production on two major groups of crops: cereals and oilseeds. We implemented a spatially-explicit computer simulation model across 173 countries based on the following algorithm: on any cropland, always produce the most productive crop given all other crops currently being produced locally and the site-specific biophysical, economic and technological constraints to production. Globally, this strategy resulted in net increases in annual production of cereal and oilseed crops from 1.9 billion to 2.9 billion tons (46%), and from 427 million to 481 million tons (13%), respectively, without any change in total land area harvested for cereals or oilseeds. This thought experiment demonstrates that, in theory, more optimal use of existing farmlands could help meet future crop demands. In practice there might be cultural, social and institutional barriers that limit the full realisation of this theoretical potential. Nevertheless, these constraints have to be weighed against the consequences of not producing enough food, particularly in regions already facing food shortages.

SUBMITTER: Koh LP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3817586 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands.

Koh Lian Pin LP Koellner Thomas T Ghazoul Jaboury J

PeerJ 20131024

The human population is expected to reach ∼9 billion by 2050. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy would intensify land-use conflicts and exacerbate environmental impacts. Therefore we urgently need to reconcile our growing consumptive needs with environmental protection. Here, we explore the potential of a land-use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural production on two major groups of crops: cereals and oilseeds. We implemented a spatially-explicit computer simulation ...[more]

PMID: 24255807

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Project description:Facing a growing and more affluent world population, changing climate and finite natural resources, world food systems will have to change in the future. The aim of the Agrimonde-Terra foresight study was to build global scenarios linking land use and food security, with special attention paid to overlooked aspects such as nutrition and health, in order to help explore the possible future of the global food system. In this article, we seek to highlight how the resulting set of scenarios contributes to the debate on land use and food security and enlarges the range of possible futures for the global food system. We highlight four main contributions. Combining a scenario building method based on morphological analysis and quantitative simulations with a tractable and simple biomass balance model, the proposed approach improves transparency and coherence between scenario narratives and quantitative assessment. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios comprise a wide range of alternative diets, with contrasting underlying nutritional and health issues, which accompany contrasting urbanization and rural transformation processes, both dimensions that are lacking in other sets of global scenarios. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios share some similarities with existing sets of global scenarios, notably the SSPs, but are usually less optimistic regarding agricultural land expansion up to 2050. Results suggest that changing global diets toward healthier patterns could also help to limit the expansion in agricultural land area. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios enlarge the scope of possible futures by proposing two pathways that are uncommon in other sets of global scenarios. The first proposes to explore possible reconnection of the food industry and regional production within supranational regional blocs. The second means that we should consider that a 'perfect storm', induced by climate change and an ecological crisis combined with social and economic crises, is still possible. Both scenarios should be part of the debate as the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic shows.

Project description:BackgroundThe discovery-dominance trade-off is the inverse relationship between the ability of a species to discover resources and the species' dominance of those resources; a paradigm used to explain species coexistence in ant communities dependent on similar resources. However, factors such as stress (e.g., temperature) or disturbance (e.g., removal of biomass) associated with the change in land use, can modify this trade-off. Here, we aimed to determine the potential effects of land use change on dominance hierarchy, food preferences and on the discovery-dominance trade-off.MethodsAn experiment with baits was used to investigate the dominance hierarchies of ant communities in a temperate mountain habitat in central Mexico. We evaluated the dominance index (DI), food preferences and discovery-dominance trade-offs of ants inhabiting two types of vegetation: a native oak forest and agricultural land resulting from agricultural land use and grazing.ResultsThe ant communities in both environments were comprised of three species of ants (Monomorium minimum, Myrmica mexicana, and Camponotus picipes pilosulus), four morphospecies (Pheidole sp.1 and Pheidole sp.2, Temnothorax sp. and Lasius sp.) and one genus (Formica spp.). All Formicidae showed values of intermediate to low DI, and this factor did not seem to be influenced by the change in land use. Ants in the modified vegetation (i.e., agricultural land) were found to be numerically greater. Overall, a higher number of visits were registered to the tuna bait, although the duration of foraging events to the honey baits was longer. However, foraging times were dependent on the species considered: the generalized Myrmicinae, M. minimum, the ant species with highest DI, foraged for longer periods of time in the agricultural land and on the tuna bait. Meanwhile, the cold-climate specialist Formica spp., with a lower DI, foraged for longer periods of time in the oak (although not significant) and on the honey bait. We found little evidence of the discovery-dominance trade-off; instead, we found considerable diversity in the strategies used by the different species to access resources. This range of strategies is well represented by the generalized Myrmicinae M. minimum, the cold-climate specialists Formica spp. and Temnothorax sp., and the rare species, as the cold climate specialist Lasius sp. (insinuators).ConclusionsOur evaluation shows that transformation of the original habitat does not appear to affect the hierarchical dominance of the ant communities, but it does affect their food preferences. Species with higher DI values such as the generalized Myrmicinae are more skilled at resource acquisition in modified habitats. Our results suggest that change in land use promotes an increase in the diversity of foraging strategies used by different ant species. This diversity may contribute to resource partitioning which favors coexistence.

Dataset Information

Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands.

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Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands.

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