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Risk prediction models for mortality in community-acquired pneumonia: a systematic review.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Several models have been developed to predict the risk of mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). This study aims to systematically identify and evaluate the performance of published risk prediction models for CAP. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane library in November 2011 for initial derivation and validation studies for models which predict pneumonia mortality. We aimed to present the comparative usefulness of their mortality prediction. RESULTS: We identified 20 different published risk prediction models for mortality in CAP. Four models relied on clinical variables that could be assessed in community settings, with the two validated models BTS1 and CRB-65 showing fairly similar balanced accuracy levels (0.77 and 0.72, resp.), while CRB-65 had AUROC of 0.78. Nine models required laboratory tests in addition to clinical variables, and the best performance levels amongst the validated models were those of CURB and CURB-65 (balanced accuracy 0.73 and 0.71, resp.), with CURB-65 having an AUROC of 0.79. The PSI (AUROC 0.82) was the only validated model with good discriminative ability among the four that relied on clinical, laboratorial, and radiological variables. CONCLUSIONS: There is no convincing evidence that other risk prediction models improve upon the well-established CURB-65 and PSI models.

SUBMITTER: Kwok CS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3817804 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk prediction models for mortality in community-acquired pneumonia: a systematic review.

Kwok Chun Shing CS Loke Yoon K YK Woo Kenneth K Myint Phyo Kyaw PK

BioMed research international 20131021

<h4>Background</h4>Several models have been developed to predict the risk of mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). This study aims to systematically identify and evaluate the performance of published risk prediction models for CAP.<h4>Methods</h4>We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane library in November 2011 for initial derivation and validation studies for models which predict pneumonia mortality. We aimed to present the comparative usefulness of their mortality prediction.<h4>Re ...[more]

PMID: 24228253

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Project description:BackgroundThe etiology of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) has evolved since the beginning of the antibiotic era. Recent guidelines encourage immediate empiric antibiotic treatment once a diagnosis of CAP is made. Concerns about treatment recommendations, on the one hand, and antibiotic stewardship, on the other, motivated this review of the medical literature on the etiology of CAP.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of English-language literature on the etiology of CAP using methods defined by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We searched PubMed using a combination of the keywords 'pneumonia', 'CAP', 'etiology', 'microbiology', 'bacteriology', and 'pathogen'. We examined articles on antibiotics that were develop to treat pneumonia. We reviewed all 'related articles' as well as studies referenced by those that came up in the search. After we excluded articles that did not give sufficient microbiological data or failed to meet other predetermined criteria, 146 studies remained. Data were stratified into diagnostic categories according to the microbiologic studies that were done; results are presented as the percentage in each category of all cases in which an etiology was established.ResultsStreptococcus pneumoniae remains the most common cause of CAP although declining in incidence; this decline has been greater in the US than elsewhere. Haemophilus influenzae is the second most common cause of CAP, followed by Staphylococcus aureus and Gram negative bacilli. The incidence of all bacteria as causes of CAP has declined because, with routine use of PCR for viruses, the denominator, cases with an established etiology, has increased. Viruses were reported on average in about 10% of cases, but recent PCR-based studies identified a respiratory virus in about 30% of cases of CAP, with substantial rates of viral/bacterial coinfection.ConclusionThe results of this study justify current guidelines for initial empiric treatment of CAP. With pneumococcus and Haemophilus continuing to predominate, efforts at antibiotic stewardship might be enhanced by greater attention to the routine use of sputum Gram stain and culture. Because viral/bacterial coinfection is relatively common, the identification of a virus by PCR does not, by itself, allow for discontinuation of the antibiotic therapy.

Project description:PurposePregnancy-related critical illness leads to death for 3-14% of affected women. Although identifying patients at risk could facilitate preventive strategies, guide therapy, and help in clinical research, no prior systematic review of this literature exploring the validity of risk prediction models for maternal mortality exists. Therefore, we have systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed risk prediction models for maternal mortality.MethodsSearch strategy: MEDLINE, EMBASE and Scopus, from inception to May 2017. Selection criteria: Trials or observational studies evaluating risk prediction models for maternal mortality. Data collection and analysis: Two reviewers independently assessed studies for eligibility and methodological quality, and extracted data on prediction performance.ResultsThirty-eight studies that evaluated 12 different mortality prediction models were included. Mortality varied across the studies, with an average rate 10.4%, ranging from 0 to 41.7%. The Collaborative Integrated Pregnancy High-dependency Estimate of Risk (CIPHER) model and the Maternal Severity Index had the best performance, were developed and validated from studies of obstetric population with a low risk of bias. The CIPHER applies to critically ill obstetric patients (discrimination: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.823 (0.811-0.835), calibration: graphic plot [intercept-0.09, slope 0.92]). The Maternal Severity Index applies to hospitalized obstetric patients (discrimination: AUC 0.826 [0.802-0.851], calibration: standardized mortality ratio 1.02 [0.86-1.20]).ConclusionsDespite the high heterogeneity of the study populations and the limited number of studies validating the finally eligible prediction models, the CIPHER and the Maternal Severity Index are recommended for use among critically ill and hospitalized pregnant and postpartum women for risk adjustment in clinical research and quality improvement studies. Neither index has sufficient discrimination to be applicable for clinical decision making at the individual patient level.

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Risk prediction models for mortality in community-acquired pneumonia: a systematic review.

Publications

Risk prediction models for mortality in community-acquired pneumonia: a systematic review.

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