Dataset Information

Application of the UK foresight obesity model in Ireland: the health and economic consequences of projected obesity trends in Ireland.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Given the scale of the current obesity epidemic and associated health consequences there has been increasing concern about the economic burden placed on society in terms of direct healthcare costs and indirect societal costs. In the Republic of Ireland these costs were estimated at €1.13 billion for 2009. The total direct healthcare costs for six major obesity related conditions (coronary heart disease & stroke, cancer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis) in the same year were estimated at €2.55 billion. The aim of this research is to project disease burden and direct healthcare costs for these conditions in Ireland to 2030 using the established model developed by the Health Forum (UK) for the Foresight: Tackling Obesities project.

Methodology

Routine data sources were used to derive incidence, prevalence, mortality and survival for six conditions as inputs for the model. The model utilises a two stage modelling process to predict future BMI rates, disease prevalence and costs. Stage 1 employs a non-linear multivariate regression model to project BMI trends; stage 2 employs a microsimulation approach to produce longitudinal projections and test the impact of interventions upon future incidence of obesity-related disease.

Results

Overweight and obesity are projected to reach levels of 89% and 85% in males and females respectively by 2030. This will result in an increase in the obesity related prevalence of CHD & stroke by 97%, cancers by 61% and type 2 diabetes by 21%. The direct healthcare costs associated with these increases will amount to €5.4 billion by 2030. A 5% reduction in population BMI levels by 2030 is projected to result in €495 million less being spent in obesity-related direct healthcare costs over twenty years.

Discussion

These findings have significant implications for policy, highlighting the need for effective strategies to prevent this avoidable health and economic burden.

SUBMITTER: Keaver L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3827424 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Application of the UK foresight obesity model in Ireland: the health and economic consequences of projected obesity trends in Ireland.

Keaver Laura L Webber Laura L Dee Anne A Shiely Frances F Marsh Tim T Balanda Kevin K Perry Ivan J IJ

PloS one 20131113 11

<h4>Background</h4>Given the scale of the current obesity epidemic and associated health consequences there has been increasing concern about the economic burden placed on society in terms of direct healthcare costs and indirect societal costs. In the Republic of Ireland these costs were estimated at €1.13 billion for 2009. The total direct healthcare costs for six major obesity related conditions (coronary heart disease & stroke, cancer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis) in ...[more]

PMID: 24236162

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Project description:BackgroundThe number of people living with obesity or who are overweight presents a global challenge, and the development of effective interventions is hampered by a lack of research which takes a joined up, whole system, approach that considers multiple elements of the complex obesity system together. We need to better understand the collective characteristics and behaviours of those who are overweight or have obesity and how these differ from those who maintain a healthy weight.MethodsUsing the UK Biobank cohort we develop an obesity classification system using k-means clustering. Variable selection from the UK Biobank cohort is informed by the Foresight obesity system map across key domains (Societal Influences, Individual Psychology, Individual Physiology, Individual Physical Activity, Physical Activity Environment).ResultsOur classification identifies eight groups of people, similar in respect to their exposure to known drivers of obesity: 'Younger, urban hard-pressed', 'Comfortable, fit families', 'Healthy, active and retirees', 'Content, rural and retirees', 'Comfortable professionals', 'Stressed and not in work', 'Deprived with less healthy lifestyles' and 'Active manual workers'. Pen portraits are developed to describe the characteristics of these different groups. Multinomial logistic regression is used to demonstrate that the classification can effectively detect groups of individuals more likely to be living with overweight or obesity. The group identified as 'Comfortable, fit families' are observed to have a higher proportion of healthy weight, while three groups have increased relative risk of being overweight or having obesity: 'Active manual workers', 'Stressed and not in work' and 'Deprived with less healthy lifestyles'.ConclusionsThis paper presents the first study of UK Biobank participants to adopt this obesity system approach to characterising participants. It provides an innovative new approach to better understand the complex drivers of obesity which has the potential to produce meaningful tools for policy makers to better target interventions across the whole system to reduce overweight and obesity.

Project description:BackgroundThis study aimed to capture public beliefs about living with obesity, examine how these beliefs have changed over time and to explore whether certain characteristics were associated with them in a nationally representative sample of adults from the Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Northern Ireland (NI).MethodsA cross-sectional survey employed a random quota sampling approach to recruit a nationally representative sample of 1046 adults across NI and RoI. Telephone interviews captured information on demographics; health behaviours & attitudes; and beliefs about the consequences of obesity (measured using the Obesity Beliefs Scale). Univariable analyses compared beliefs about the consequences of living with obesity between participants with a self-reported healthy weight and those living with overweight or obesity, and non-responders (those for whom weight status could not be ascertained due to missing data). Multiple linear regression examined associations between obesity-related beliefs and socio-demographics, self-rated health and perceived ability to change health behaviours. Multiple linear regression also compared changes in obesity-related beliefs between 2013 and 2020 in the RoI.ResultsHigher endorsement of the negative outcomes of obesity was significantly associated with living with a healthy weight, higher self-rated health, dietary quality and perceived ability to improve diet and physical activity. Those who lived with overweight, with obesity and non-responders were less likely to endorse the negative consequences of obesity. Those living with obesity and non-responders were also more likely to support there is an increased cost and effort in maintaining a healthy weight. Comparison with survey data from 2013 showed that currently, there is a greater endorsement of the health benefits of maintaining a healthy weight (p < 0001), but also of the increased costs associated with it (p < 0001).ConclusionBeliefs about the consequences of maintaining a healthy body weight are associated with individuals' weight, self-rated health, diet and perceived ease of adoption of dietary and exercise-related improvements. Beliefs about the health risks of obesity and perceived greater costs associated with maintaining a healthy weight appear to have strengthened over time. Present findings are pertinent to researchers and policy makers involved in the design and framing of interventions to address obesity.

Dataset Information

Application of the UK foresight obesity model in Ireland: the health and economic consequences of projected obesity trends in Ireland.

Background

Methodology

Results

Discussion

Publications

Application of the UK foresight obesity model in Ireland: the health and economic consequences of projected obesity trends in Ireland.

Similar Datasets

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