Time trends and projected obesity epidemic in Brazilian adults between 2006 and 2030.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Estivaleti JM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9315079 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectivesThe two-child policy took effect in China on 1 January 2016, thus officially ending the one-child policy. The resultant growth in the population will create a considerable demand for public services such as paediatric healthcare, even while there are limited paediatric resources. We estimated the relationship between paediatric health resources and services and child mortality to determine the degree of the deficiency of such resources in China. Projecting the quantity of paediatric health resource allocation and service supply through 2030 will help provide data reference for future policy decision making.DesignTime-series study.SettingThe People's Republic of China.ParticipantsPaediatric patients whose data were recorded between 2003 and 2012 from the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China.Primary and secondary outcome measuresChild mortality and paediatric health resources and services data were entered into a cubic polynomial regression model to project paediatric health resources and services to 2030.ResultsChild mortality decreased throughout the past decade. Furthermore, the number of paediatric beds, paediatricians and nurses increased between 2003 and 2012, although the proportions increased rather slowly. Both the number and proportion of paediatric outpatients and inpatients increased rapidly. The observed and model-predicted values matched well (adjusted R2=93.8% for paediatric beds; adjusted R2=96.6% for paediatric outpatient visits). Overall, the projection indicated that paediatric beds, paediatricians and nurses will reach 460 148, 233 884 and 184 059 by 2030, respectively. Regarding paediatric services, the number of paediatric outpatient visits and inpatients is expected to reach upwards of 449.95 million and 21.83 million by 2030, respectively.ConclusionsDespite implementation of the two-child policy, resource allocation in paediatrics has many deficiencies. Proper measures should be taken to actively respond to the demand for paediatric health services.
| S-EPMC5623377 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo identify changes in traditional dietary behaviour through the evaluation of trends in bean consumption among adults in Brazil between 2007 and 2017 and to estimate its projections up to 2030.DesignTime-series analysis conducted with data from the Surveillance System for Protective and Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (Vigitel) between 2007 and 2017. Weekly consumption of beans was analysed. Prais-Winsten regression evaluated trends for the entire period of study (2007-2017) and in two periods of analyses (2007-2011 and 2012-2017) for the complete set of the population and stratified by socio-demographic characteristics. Estimated prevalence projections were calculated up to the year 2030 using its tendency from 2012 to 2017.SettingBrazil.ParticipantsA probabilistic sample of 572 675 Brazilian adults aged ≥ 18 years.ResultsChanges in traditional dietary pattern were identified. Regular consumption of beans (≥ 5 d/week) presented a stable prevalence trend for the total population in the complete and the first analysed period, but a significant decrease in the second half (67·5 % to 59·5 %) among both genders, all age groups and educational levels (except for ≥12 years). The higher magnitude of regular consumption of beans will occur up to the year of 2025 for the total population (46·9 %), when it will be less frequent in the week.ConclusionReductions in the weekly consumption of beans may represent the weakness of a traditional food culture in a globalised food system. By 2025, regular consumption of beans will cease to be the predominant habit in the country.
| S-EPMC10195620 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPersons living with HIV (PLWH) have an elevated risk for certain types of cancer. With modern antiretroviral therapy, PLWH are aging and cancer rates are changing.ObjectiveTo project cancer incidence rates and burden (number of new cancer diagnoses) among adult PLWH in the United States through 2030.DesignDescriptive.SettingHIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study to project cancer rates and HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics model to project HIV prevalence.ParticipantsHIV-infected adults.MeasurementsProjected cancer rates and burden among HIV-infected adults in the United States by age during 2006 to 2030 for AIDS-defining cancer (ADC)-that is, Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and cervical cancer-and certain types of non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC). All other cancer types were combined.ResultsThe proportion of adult PLWH in the United States aged 65 years or older is projected to increase from 8.5% in 2010 to 21.4% in 2030. Age-specific rates are projected to decrease through 2030 across age groups for Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, cervical cancer, lung cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma, and other cancer types combined, and among those aged 65 years or older for colon cancer. Prostate cancer rates are projected to increase. The estimated total cancer burden in PLWH will decrease from 8150 cases in 2010 (2730 of ADC and 5420 of NADC) to 6690 cases in 2030 (720 of ADC and 5980 of NADC). In 2030, prostate cancer (n = 1590) and lung cancer (n = 1030) are projected to be the most common cancer types.LimitationProjections assume that current trends in cancer incidence rates, HIV transmission, and survival will continue.ConclusionThe cancer burden among PLWH is projected to shift, with prostate and lung cancer expected to emerge as the most common types by 2030. Cancer will remain an important comorbid condition, and expanded access to HIV therapies and cancer prevention, screening, and treatment is needed.Primary funding sourceNational Cancer Institute.
| S-EPMC6329294 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAssess current and future pediatric emergency physician supply and need at 26 pediatric emergency departments (EDs) in 10 administrative regions across Saudi Arabia from 2021 through 2030.MethodsFor 10 administrative regions across Saudi Arabia, data were obtained on the size of the pediatric population (children <14 years old), the expected number of pediatric ED visits, and the number of pediatric emergency, fellowship-trained consultant physicians for the years 2015 through 2019. Time series linear regression modeling was used to estimate annual pediatric population sizes and pediatric ED visits for 2021-2030, based on 2015-2019 data trends. The projected number of pediatric emergency consultant physicians needed for 2021-2030 based on these trends was calculated according to a consensus method adopted by the Saudi Ministry of Health.ResultsFor the 10 Saudi Arabian administrative regions, the pediatric population is estimated to be 8,061,409 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7,815,767 to 8,307,052) in 2021 and 9,764,591 (95% CI: 9,046,490 to 10,500,000) for 2030, and estimated the number of pediatric ED visits is 3,442,259 (95% CI: 3,013,697 to 3,870,822) for 2021 and 4,610,072 (95% CI: 3,026,986 to 6,193,158) for 2030. The projected number of pediatric emergency consultant physicians needed for 2021 is 1158 (95% CI: 1,002 to 1,314) and for 2030 is 1500 (95% CI: 985 to 2016), whereas deficit in number of pediatric emergency consultant physicians available is 1107 (95% CI: 944 to 1,270) for 2021 and 1405 (95% CI: 869 to 1,941) for 2030.ConclusionsThe study projections demonstrate a disparity between current and projected supply and demand of pediatric emergency physicians within Saudi Arabia.
| S-EPMC8769067 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe drug overdose mortality rate tripled between 1990 and 2006; prescription opioids have driven this epidemic. We examined the period 1990-2006 to inform our understanding of how the current prescription opioid overdose epidemic emerged in urban areas.MethodsWe used data from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner to examine changes in demographic and spatial patterns in overdose fatalities induced by prescription opioids (i.e., analgesics and methadone) in New York City (NYC) in 1990-2006, and what factors were associated with death from prescription opioids vs. heroin, historically the most prevalent form of opioid overdose in urban areas.ResultsAnalgesic-induced overdose fatalities were the only types of overdose fatalities to increase in 1990-2006 in NYC; the fatality rate increased sevenfold from 0.39 in 1990 to 2.7 per 100,000 persons in 2006. Whites and Latinos were the only racial/ethnic groups to exhibit an increase in overdose-related mortality. Relative to heroin overdose decedents, analgesic and methadone overdose decedents were more likely to be female and to concurrently use psychotherapeutic drugs, but less likely to concurrently use alcohol or cocaine. Analgesic overdose decedents were less likely to be Black or Hispanic, while methadone overdose decedents were more likely to be Black or Hispanic in contrast to heroin overdose decedents.ConclusionsThe distinct epidemiologic profiles exhibited by analgesic and methadone overdose fatalities highlight the need to define drug-specific public health prevention efforts.
| S-EPMC3748247 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PURPOSE OF REVIEW:An increasing trend in obesity prevalence since the early 1980s has posed a significant population health burden across the globe. We conducted a systematic review for studies using measured anthropometry to examine trends in obesity in the USA published from 2012 to 2018 and for systematic reviews to document trends in obesity across the globe published from 2014 to 2018. RECENT FINDINGS:For the USA, the only nationally representative data source capturing trends in obesity in this period was the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, which uses repeated cross-sectional data to document national trends in obesity in the USA. For global trends, the only systematic reviews of obesity across the globe were the Global Burden of Disease Obesity study and the Non-communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration study. In general, the population distribution of body mass index (BMI) in the USA has shifted towards the upper end of its distribution over the past three decades. The global distribution has similarly increased, albeit with large regional differences. US and global studies suggest an increasing trend in obesity since the 1980s, and there is a dearth of nationally representative longitudinal studies using measured anthropometry to capture trends in adult obesity in the USA for the same individuals over time. Greater efforts are needed to identify factors contributing to the continued increases in obesity.
| S-EPMC6215729 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThis study explores trends in the prevalence of high sitting time and its correlates among "high sitting" and "high sitting-least active" European adults from 2002 to 2017. Both groups have merit for future public health interventions to prevent development of a range of prevalent non-communicable diseases.MethodsData collected in the 2002 (15 countries), 2005 (30 countries), 2013 (28 countries) and 2017 (28 countries) Eurobarometer surveys were used, including around 15,000 respondents in 2002 and >26,000 respondents in the other years. Sitting time and moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity were measured with the validated International Physical Activity Questionnaire-short. High sitting was defined as >7.5 hours per day. Respondents in the lowest quartile of total reported days of physical activity (i.e. days walking, days in moderate activity, and days in vigorous activity) were defined as least active. Multivariate odds ratios of high sitting, and high sitting-least active were assessed by country and socio-demographic characteristics for each survey year using binary logistic regression analyses.ResultsTrends in sitting time were relatively stable over a 15-year period, although this time trend was limited by a change in the sitting question between 2005 and 2013. Men, higher educated people, students, retired people, white collar workers, people living in urban areas, people with lower physical activity levels, and people living in the Czech Republic, Denmark or the Netherlands were consistently more likely to be in the high sitting group across all four survey years. Similarly, men, students, retired people, unemployed people, white collar workers, and people living in the Czech Republic or Denmark were consistently more likely to be in the high sitting-least active group across all four surveys.ConclusionThis study identified population sub-groups that need special attention in public health interventions to lower total sitting time.
| S-EPMC6850696 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGiven the scale of the current obesity epidemic and associated health consequences there has been increasing concern about the economic burden placed on society in terms of direct healthcare costs and indirect societal costs. In the Republic of Ireland these costs were estimated at €1.13 billion for 2009. The total direct healthcare costs for six major obesity related conditions (coronary heart disease & stroke, cancer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis) in the same year were estimated at €2.55 billion. The aim of this research is to project disease burden and direct healthcare costs for these conditions in Ireland to 2030 using the established model developed by the Health Forum (UK) for the Foresight: Tackling Obesities project.MethodologyRoutine data sources were used to derive incidence, prevalence, mortality and survival for six conditions as inputs for the model. The model utilises a two stage modelling process to predict future BMI rates, disease prevalence and costs. Stage 1 employs a non-linear multivariate regression model to project BMI trends; stage 2 employs a microsimulation approach to produce longitudinal projections and test the impact of interventions upon future incidence of obesity-related disease.ResultsOverweight and obesity are projected to reach levels of 89% and 85% in males and females respectively by 2030. This will result in an increase in the obesity related prevalence of CHD & stroke by 97%, cancers by 61% and type 2 diabetes by 21%. The direct healthcare costs associated with these increases will amount to €5.4 billion by 2030. A 5% reduction in population BMI levels by 2030 is projected to result in €495 million less being spent in obesity-related direct healthcare costs over twenty years.DiscussionThese findings have significant implications for policy, highlighting the need for effective strategies to prevent this avoidable health and economic burden.
| S-EPMC3827424 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purpose - Pediatric fracture incidence may not be stable. We describe recent pediatric fracture epidemiology and etiology and compare this to earlier data. Patients and methods - The city of Malmö (population 271,271 in 2005) in Sweden is served by 1 hospital. Using the hospital diagnosis registry, medical charts, and the radiographic archive, we identified fractures in individuals <16 years that had occurred during 2005 and 2006. We also retrieved previously collected fracture data from between 1950 and 1994, from the hospital's pediatric fracture database. We used official population data to estimate period-specific fracture incidence (the number of fractures per 105 person-years) and also age- and sex-adjusted incidence. Differences are reported as rate ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals. Results - The pediatric fracture incidence during the period 2005-2006 was 1,832 per 105 person-years (2,359 in boys and 1,276 in girls), with an age-adjusted boy-to-girl ratio of 1.8 (1.6-2.1). Compared to the period 1993-1994, age-adjusted rates were unchanged (RR =0.9, 95% CI: 0.8-1.03) in 2005-2006, with lower rates in girls (RR =0.8, 95% CI: 0.7-0.99) but not in boys (RR =1.0, 95% CI: 0.9-1.1). We also found that the previously reported decrease in unadjusted incidence in Malmö from 1976-1979 to 1993-1994 was based on changes in demography, as the age-adjusted incidences were similar in the 2 periods (RR =1.0, 95% CI: 0.9-1.1). Interpretation - In Malmö, pediatric fracture incidence decreased from 1993-1994 to 2005-2006 in girls but not in boys. Changes in demography, and also other factors, influence the recent time trends.
| S-EPMC5499338 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAs the US population ages, the number of hip and knee arthroplasties is expected to increase. Because surgical site infections (SSIs) following these procedures contribute substantial morbidity, mortality, and costs, we projected SSIs expected to occur from 2020 through 2030.MethodsWe used a stochastic Poisson process to project the number of primary and revision arthroplasties and SSIs. Primary arthroplasty rates were calculated using annual estimates of hip and knee arthroplasty stratified by age and gender from the 2012-2014 Nationwide Inpatient Sample and standardized by census population data. Revision rates, dependent on time from primary procedure, were obtained from published literature and were uniformly applied for all ages and genders. Stratified complex SSI rates for arthroplasties were obtained from 2012-2015 National Healthcare Safety Network data. To evaluate the possible impact of prevention measures, we recalculated the projections with an SSI rate reduced by 30%, the national target established by the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).ResultsWithout a reduction in SSI rates, we projected an increase in complex SSIs following hip and knee arthroplasty of 14% between 2020 and 2030. We projected a total burden of 77,653 SSIs; however, meeting the 30% rate reduction could prevent 23,297 of these SSIs.ConclusionsGiven current SSI rates, we project that complex SSI burden for primary and revision arthroplasty may increase due to an aging population. Reducing the SSI rate to the national HHS target could prevent 23,000 SSIs and reduce subsequent morbidity, mortality, and Medicare costs.
| S-EPMC6520991 | biostudies-literature