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From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability.

ABSTRACT: Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965-2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d) has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (<2000 kcal/cap/d) has dropped from 52% to 3%. Largest improvements are seen in the MENA region, Latin America, China and Southeast Asia. Besides, the composition of diets has changed considerably within the study period: the world population living with high supply of animal source food (>15% of dietary energy supply) increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d) has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.

SUBMITTER: Porkka M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3867377 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The global trade in cephalopods is a multi-billion dollar business involving the fishing and production of more than ten commercially valuable species. It also contributes, in whole or in part, to the subsistence and economic livelihoods of thousands of coastal communities around the world. The importance of cephalopods as a major cultural, social, economic, and ecological resource has been widely recognised, but research efforts to describe the extent and scope of the global cephalopod trade are limited. So far, there are no specific regulatory and monitoring systems in place to analyse the traceability of the global trade in cephalopods at the international level. To understand who are the main global players in cephalopod seafood markets, this paper provides, for the first time, a global overview of the legal trade in cephalopods. Twenty years of records compiled in the UN COMTRADE database were analysed. The database contained 115,108 records for squid and cuttlefish and 71,659 records for octopus, including commodity flows between traders (territories or countries) weighted by monetary value (USD) and volume (kg). A theoretical network analysis was used to identify the emergent properties of this large trade network by analysing centrality measures that revealed key insights into the role of traders. The results illustrate that three countries (China, Spain, and Japan) led the majority of global market movements between 2000 and 2019. Based on volume and value, as well as the number of transactions, 11 groups of traders were identified. The leading cluster consisted of only eight traders, who dominated the cephalopod market in Asia (China, India, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam), Europe (the Netherlands, and Spain), and the USA. This paper identifies the countries and territories that acted as major importers or exporters, the best-connected traders, the hubs or accumulators, the modulators, the main flow routes, and the weak points of the global cephalopod trade network over the last 20 years. This knowledge of the network is crucial to move towards an environmentally sustainable, transparent, and food-secure global cephalopod trade.

Project description:ObjectivesHuman pathogen richness and prevalence vary widely across the globe, yet we know little about whether global patterns found in other taxa also predict diversity in this important group of organisms. This study (a) assesses the relative importance of temperature, precipitation, habitat diversity, and population density on the global distributions of human pathogens and (b) evaluates the species-area predictions of island biogeography for human pathogen distributions on oceanic islands.MethodsHistorical data were used in order to minimize the influence of differential access to modern health care on pathogen prevalence. The database includes coded data (pathogen, environmental and cultural) for a worldwide sample of 186 non-industrial cultures, including 37 on islands. Prevalence levels for 10 pathogens were combined into a pathogen prevalence index, and OLS regression was used to model the environmental determinants of the prevalence index and number of pathogens.ResultsPathogens (number and prevalence index) showed the expected latitudinal gradient, but predictors varied by latitude. Pathogens increased with temperature in high-latitude zones, while mean annual precipitation was a more important predictor in low-latitude zones. Other environmental factors associated with more pathogens included seasonal dry extremes, frost-free climates, and human population density outside the tropics. Islands showed the expected species-area relationship for all but the smallest islands, and the relationship was not mediated by habitat diversity. Although geographic distributions of free-living and parasitic taxa typically have different determinants, these data show that variables that influence the distribution of free-living organisms also shape the global distribution of human pathogens. Understanding the cause of these distributions is potentially important, since geographical variation in human pathogens has an important influence on global disparities in human welfare.

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From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability.

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