Dataset Information

Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

ABSTRACT: Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities.

SUBMITTER: Liu X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3883111 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

Liu Xian X Engel Charles C CC

Statistics in medicine 20120724 29

Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond exis ...[more]

PMID: 22825754

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Project description:Background and aimsWe analyze the possible predictive variables for Adverse Events (AEs) during sedation for gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy.MethodsWe consider 23,788 GI endoscopies under sedation on adults between 2012 and 2019. A Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression Mixture (ZIPRM) model for count data with concomitant variables is applied, accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and evaluating the risks of multi-drug sedation. A multinomial logit model is also estimated to evaluate cardiovascular, respiratory, hemorrhagic, other AEs and stopping the procedure risk factors.ResultsIn 7.55% of cases, one or more AEs occurred, most frequently cardiovascular (3.26%) or respiratory (2.77%). Our ZIPRM model identifies one population for non-zero counts. The AE-group reveals that age >75 years yields 46% more AEs than age <66 years; Body Mass Index (BMI) ≥27 27% more AEs than BMI <21; emergency 11% more AEs than routine. Any one-point increment in the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score and the Mallampati score determines respectively a 42% and a 16% increment in AEs; every hour prolonging endoscopy increases AEs by 41%. Regarding sedation with propofol alone (the sedative of choice), adding opioids to propofol increases AEs by 43% and adding benzodiazepines by 51%. Cardiovascular AEs are increased by age, ASA score, smoke, in-hospital, procedure duration, midazolam/fentanyl associated with propofol. Respiratory AEs are increased by BMI, ASA and Mallampati scores, emergency, in-hospital, procedure duration, midazolam/fentanyl associated with propofol. Hemorrhagic AEs are increased by age, in-hospital, procedure duration, midazolam/fentanyl associated with propofol. The risk of suspension of the endoscopic procedure before accomplishment is increased by female gender, ASA and Mallampati scores, and in-hospital, and it is reduced by emergency and procedure duration.ConclusionsAge, BMI, ASA score, Mallampati score, in-hospital, procedure duration, other sedatives with propofol increase the risk for AEs during sedation for GI endoscopy.

Project description:Malnutrition is common, morbid, and often correctable, but subject to missed and delayed diagnosis. Better screening and prediction could improve clinical, functional, and economic outcomes. This study aimed to assess the predictability of malnutrition from longitudinal patient records, and the external generalizability of a predictive model. Predictive models were developed and validated on statewide emergency department (ED) and hospital admission databases for California, Florida and New York, including visits from October 1, 2015 to December 31, 2018. Visit features included patient demographics, diagnosis codes, and procedure categories. Models included long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks trained on longitudinal trajectories, and gradient-boosted tree and logistic regression models trained on cross-sectional patient data. The dataset used for model training and internal validation (California and Florida) included 62,811 patient trajectories (266,951 visits). Test sets included 63,997 (California), 63,112 (Florida), and 62,472 (New York) trajectories, such that each cohort's composition was proportional to the prevalence of malnutrition in that state. Trajectories contained seven patient characteristics and up to 2,008 diagnosis categories. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) and precision-recall curves (AUPRC) were used to characterize prediction of first malnutrition diagnoses in the test sets. Data analysis was performed from September 2020 to May 2021. Between 4.0% (New York) and 6.2% (California) of patients received malnutrition diagnoses. The longitudinal LSTM model produced the most accurate predictions of malnutrition, with comparable predictive performance in California (AUROC 0.854, AUPRC 0.258), Florida (AUROC 0.869, AUPRC 0.234), and New York (AUROC 0.869, AUPRC 0.190). Deep learning models can reliably predict malnutrition from existing longitudinal patient records, with better predictive performance and lower data-collection requirements than existing instruments. This approach may facilitate early nutritional intervention via automated screening at the point of care.

Dataset Information

Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

Publications

Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

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