Dataset Information

Predicting long-term multicategory cause of death in patients with prostate cancer: random forest versus multinomial model.

ABSTRACT: The majority of patients with prostate cancer die of non-cancer causes of death (COD). It is thus important to accurately predict multi-category COD in these patients. Random forest (RF), a popular machine learning model, has been shown useful for predicting binary cancer-specific deaths. However, its accuracy for predicting multi-category COD in cancer patients is unclear. We included patients in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-18 cancer registry-program with prostate cancer diagnosed in 2004 (followed-up through 2016). They were randomly divided into training and testing sets with equal sizes. We evaluated prediction accuracies of RF and conventional statistical/multinomial models for 6-category COD by data-encoding types using the 2-fold cross-validation approach. Among 49,864 prostate cancer patients, 29,611 (59.4%) were alive at the end of follow-up, and 5,448 (10.9%) died of cardiovascular disease, 4,607 (9.2%) of prostate cancer, 3,681 (7.4%) of non-prostate cancer, 717 (1.4%) of infection, and 5,800 (11.6%) of other causes. We predicted 6-category COD among these patients with a mean accuracy of 59.1% (n=240, 95% CI, 58.7%-59.4%) in RF models with one-hot encoding, and 50.4% (95% CI, 49.7%-51.0%) in multinomial models. Tumor characteristics, prostate-specific antigen level, and diagnosis confirmation-method were important in RF and multinomial models. In RF models, no statistical differences were found between the accuracies of training versus cross-validation phases, and those of categorical versus one-hot encoding. We here report that RF models can outperform multinomial logistic models (absolute accuracy-difference, 8.7%) in predicting long-term 6-category COD among prostate cancer patients, while pathology diagnosis itself and tumor pathology remain important factors.

SUBMITTER: Wang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7269775 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting long-term multicategory cause of death in patients with prostate cancer: random forest versus multinomial model.

Wang Jianwei J Deng Fei F Zeng Fuqing F Shanahan Andrew J AJ Li Wei Vivian WV Zhang Lanjing L

American journal of cancer research 20200501 5

The majority of patients with prostate cancer die of non-cancer causes of death (COD). It is thus important to accurately predict multi-category COD in these patients. Random forest (RF), a popular machine learning model, has been shown useful for predicting binary cancer-specific deaths. However, its accuracy for predicting multi-category COD in cancer patients is unclear. We included patients in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-18 cancer registry-program with prostate cancer diagnos ...[more]

PMID: 32509383

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Project description:Background and aimsThis study aimed to develop an interpretable random forest model for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).MethodsClinical and laboratory data of 648 patients with acute pancreatitis were retrospectively reviewed and randomly assigned to the training set and test set in a 3:1 ratio. Univariate analysis was used to select candidate predictors for the SAP. Random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) models were developed on the training sample. The prediction models were then applied to the test sample. The performance of the risk models was measured by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) and area under precision recall curve. We provide visualized interpretation by using local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME).ResultsThe LR model was developed to predict SAP as the following function: -1.10-0.13×albumin (g/L) + 0.016 × serum creatinine (μmol/L) + 0.14 × glucose (mmol/L) + 1.63 × pleural effusion (0/1)(No/Yes). The coefficients of this formula were utilized to build a nomogram. The RF model consists of 16 variables identified by univariate analysis. It was developed and validated by a tenfold cross-validation on the training sample. Variables importance analysis suggested that blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, albumin, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, calcium, and glucose were the most important seven predictors of SAP. The AUCs of RF model in tenfold cross-validation of the training set and the test set was 0.89 and 0.96, respectively. Both the area under precision recall curve and the diagnostic accuracy of the RF model were higher than that of both the LR model and the BISAP score. LIME plots were used to explain individualized prediction of the RF model.ConclusionsAn interpretable RF model exhibited the highest discriminatory performance in predicting SAP. Interpretation with LIME plots could be useful for individualized prediction in a clinical setting. A nomogram consisting of albumin, serum creatinine, glucose, and pleural effusion was useful for prediction of SAP.

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Dataset Information

Predicting long-term multicategory cause of death in patients with prostate cancer: random forest versus multinomial model.

Publications

Predicting long-term multicategory cause of death in patients with prostate cancer: random forest versus multinomial model.

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