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Repeat bone mineral density screening and prediction of hip and major osteoporotic fracture.

ABSTRACT: Screening for osteoporosis with bone mineral density (BMD) is recommended for older adults. It is unclear whether repeating a BMD screening test improves fracture risk assessment.To determine whether changes in BMD after 4 years provide additional information on fracture risk beyond baseline BMD and to quantify the change in fracture risk classification after a second BMD measure.Population-based cohort study involving 310 men and 492 women from the Framingham Osteoporosis Study with 2 measures of femoral neck BMD taken from 1987 through 1999.Risk of hip or major osteoporotic fracture through 2009 or 12 years following the second BMD measure.Mean age was 74.8 years. The mean (SD) BMD change was -0.6% per year (1.8%). Throughout a median follow-up of 9.6 years, 76 participants experienced an incident hip fracture and 113 participants experienced a major osteoporotic fracture. Annual percent BMD change per SD decrease was associated with risk of hip fracture (hazard ratio [HR], 1.43 [95% CI, 1.16 to 1.78]) and major osteoporotic fracture (HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.01 to 1.45]) after adjusting for baseline BMD. At 10 years' follow-up, 1 SD decrease in annual percent BMD change compared with the mean BMD change was associated with 3.9 excess hip fractures per 100 persons. In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses, the addition of BMD change to a model with baseline BMD did not meaningfully improve performance. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.78) for the baseline BMD model compared with 0.68 (95% CI, 0.62 to 0.75) for the BMD percent change model. Moreover, the addition of BMD change to a model with baseline BMD did not meaningfully improve performance (AUC, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.66 to 0.79]). Using the net reclassification index, a second BMD measure increased the proportion of participants reclassified as high risk of hip fracture by 3.9% (95% CI, -2.2% to 9.9%), whereas it decreased the proportion classified as low risk by -2.2% (95% CI, -4.5% to 0.1%).In untreated men and women of mean age 75 years, a second BMD measure after 4 years did not meaningfully improve the prediction of hip or major osteoporotic fracture. Repeating a BMD measure within 4 years to improve fracture risk stratification may not be necessary in adults this age untreated for osteoporosis.

SUBMITTER: Berry SD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3903386 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Repeat bone mineral density screening and prediction of hip and major osteoporotic fracture.

Berry Sarah D SD Samelson Elizabeth J EJ Pencina Michael J MJ McLean Robert R RR Cupples L Adrienne LA Broe Kerry E KE Kiel Douglas P DP

JAMA 20130901 12

<h4>Importance</h4>Screening for osteoporosis with bone mineral density (BMD) is recommended for older adults. It is unclear whether repeating a BMD screening test improves fracture risk assessment.<h4>Objectives</h4>To determine whether changes in BMD after 4 years provide additional information on fracture risk beyond baseline BMD and to quantify the change in fracture risk classification after a second BMD measure.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>Population-based cohort study involvi ...[more]

PMID: 24065012

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Project description:BackgroundMuscle weakness is a key factor in the increase risk of falls and might also play a significant role in the increase of risk of hip fracture. Computed tomography-measured muscle size and muscle density are well-established imaging biomarkers used in studies of physical function, frailty or cancer, but limited to hip fracture. In particular, it is warranted to have a better understanding of the performance of muscle size and density in the discrimination of acute hip fractures. We also aim to determine age-related differences of muscle size and density in healthy controls and hip fracture patients.MethodsFour hundred thirty-eight low-energy acute hip fracture cases and 316 healthy controls from the China Action on Spine and Hip Status study were included in the study. Muscle cross-sectional area and density were measured for the gluteus maximus and gluteus medius and minimus. Areal bone mineral density (aBMD) of the femoral neck and total hip was measured. Using propensity score matching, we generated three samples with cases and controls matched for age, body mass index, and gender: femoral neck fracture (FNF), intertrochanteric fracture (ITF), and any hip fracture vs. controls, respectively.ResultsHandgrip strength, gluteus muscle area and density, and bone parameters of the matched hip fracture groups were lower than those of the correspondence control groups, respectively (P < 0.05). The univariate analysis showed that associations of aBMD with FNF and with ITF were significantly weaker than associations between fracture and muscle parameters. Gluteus medius and minimus muscle density showed the highest areas under the curve (AUC) with FNF (0.88, 95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.92) and trochanteric fracture (0.95, 95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.97). The model including all muscle and bone parameters provided the highest AUC (FNF: AUC 0.912; ITF: AUC 0.958), and AUC results of another selected model without muscle density showed that association with fracture significantly dropped (FNF: AUC 0.755; ITF: AUC 0.858). Separate results for the two age groups younger and older than 70 years showed no age-related significant differences in discriminate models.ConclusionsMuscle density performs better than aBMD from hip computed tomography X-ray absorptiometry and muscle size in discrimination of hip fracture. Combination of aBMD and muscle density provided the best discrimination. The integration of muscle assessments may trigger a paradigm shift in hip fracture prediction. Gluteus muscle density should also be evaluated as treatment outcome.

Project description:With aging, poor bone mineral density (BMD) and accelerated decrease in BMD are strong risk factors for fracture. Reports of the associations of dietary protein intake with bone strength are inconsistent, possibly owing to differences in protein sources and amino acid (AA) composition. We examined the associations of serum AA with 4-year hip BMD loss and subsequent fracture risk within 10 years in older community-dwelling adults, and further addressed whether lifestyle, dietary protein intake and its source, and body composition would affect the associations. In 1424 men and 1573 women (mean age 72 years), using binary logistic regression, higher serum valine, leucine, isoleucine and tryptophan concentrations were associated (or approaching a borderline significance in case of the last three ones) with less hip BMD decline (defined as BMD loss ? 2.8 times the precision error of the BMD measurement at femoral neck) in 4 years later, with the OR (95%CI) /SD of AA increase, ranging from 0.83 (0.75, 0.91) to 0.92 (0.87, 0.98) after multiple adjustments for baseline age, gender, BMI, BMD, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), dietary protein intake (animal- and plant-derived protein intakes), calcium intake, established lifestyles (physical activity level, smoking and alcohol drinking status), osteoporosis medications, and changes of body fat and lean muscle mass. Higher serum total homocysteine (tHcy) concentration was independently associated with BMD decline 4 years later (OR (95%CI) /SD of 1.16 (1.05, 1.27)). Using multivariate Cox regression, higher serum tryptophan concentration potentially predicted low risk of incident major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) (HR/SD (95%CI)=0.86 (0.75, 0.98)) after multiple adjustments. Higher serum tHcy was associated with MOFs (HR/SD (95%CI)=1.29 (1.12, 1.50)) risk after multiple adjustments in men. These findings suggest that a specific AA profile correlates with greater BMD and lower subsequent fracture risk, independent of diet and lifestyle factors.

Dataset Information

Repeat bone mineral density screening and prediction of hip and major osteoporotic fracture.

Publications

Repeat bone mineral density screening and prediction of hip and major osteoporotic fracture.

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