Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Raftery AE
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3904289 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Raftery Adrian E AE Chunn Jennifer L JL Gerland Patrick P Sevčíková Hana H
Demography 20130601 3
We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for producing probabilistic forecasts of male period life expectancy at birth for all the countries of the world to 2100. Such forecasts would be an input to the production of probabilistic population projections for all countries, which is currently being considered by the United Nations. To evaluate the method, we conducted an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment, fitting the model to the data from 1950-1995 and using the estimated model to forecas ...[more]