Unknown

Dataset Information

0

Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.


ABSTRACT: We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations' Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries. Prediction intervals for the populations of Northern America and Europe are over 70% wider, whereas prediction intervals for the populations of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole are nearly unchanged. Out-of-sample validation shows that the model is reasonably well calibrated.

SUBMITTER: Azose JJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4988608 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

altmetric image

Publications

Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.

Azose Jonathan J JJ   Ševčíková Hana H   Raftery Adrian E AE  

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20160523 23


We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations' Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries. Prediction intervals f  ...[more]

Similar Datasets

| S-EPMC3435191 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC5921864 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC8020736 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC3626866 | biostudies-other
| S-EPMC9555774 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC2563137 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC5784406 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC4707548 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC3904289 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC7959610 | biostudies-literature