Dataset Information

Assessing reliability of regional climate projections: the case of Indian monsoon.

ABSTRACT: Projections of climate change are emerging to play major roles in many applications. However, assessing reliability of climate change projections, especially at regional scales, remains a major challenge. An important question is the degree of progress made since the earlier IPCC simulations (CMIP3) to the latest, recently completed CMIP5. We consider the continental Indian monsoon as an example and apply a hierarchical approach for assessing reliability, using the accuracy in simulating the historical trend as the primary criterion. While the scope has increased in CMIP5, there is essentially no improvement in skill in projections since CMIP3 in terms of reliability (confidence). Thus, it may be necessary to consider acceptable models for specific assessment rather than simple ensemble. Analysis of climate indices shows that in both CMIP5 and CMIP3 certain common processes at large and regional scales as well as slow timescales are associated with successful simulation of trend and mean.

SUBMITTER: Ramesh KV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3921638 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing reliability of regional climate projections: the case of Indian monsoon.

Ramesh K V KV Goswami Prashant P

Scientific reports 20140212

Projections of climate change are emerging to play major roles in many applications. However, assessing reliability of climate change projections, especially at regional scales, remains a major challenge. An important question is the degree of progress made since the earlier IPCC simulations (CMIP3) to the latest, recently completed CMIP5. We consider the continental Indian monsoon as an example and apply a hierarchical approach for assessing reliability, using the accuracy in simulating the his ...[more]

PMID: 24518919

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Project description:The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) exhibits significant variability, affecting the food and water security of the densely populated Indian subcontinent. The two dominant spatial modes of ISMR variability are associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the strength of the semi-permanent monsoon trough along with related variability in monsoon depressions, respectively. Although the robust teleconnection between ENSO and ISMR has been well established for several decades, the major drivers leading to the time-varying relationship between ENSO and ISMR patterns across different regions of the country are not well understood. Our analysis shows a consistent increase from a moderate to substantially strong teleconnection strength between ENSO and ISMR from 1901 to 1940. This strengthened relationship remained stable and strong between 1941 and 1980. However, in the recent period from 1981 to 2018 the teleconnection decreased consistently again to a moderate strength. We find that the ENSO-ISMR relationship exhibits distinct regional variability with time-varying relationship over the north, central, and south India. Specifically, the teleconnection displays an increasing relationship for north India, a decreasing relationship for central India and a consistent relationship for south India. Warm SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific Ocean correspond to an overall decrease in the ISMR, while warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean corresponds to a decrease in rainfall over the north and increase over the south of India. The central Indian region experienced the most substantial variation in the ENSO-ISMR relationship. This variation corresponds to the variability of the monsoon trough and depressions, strongly influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, which regulate the relative dominance of the two spatial modes of ISMR. By applying the PCA-Biplot technique, our study highlights the significant impacts of various climate drivers on the two dominant spatial modes of ISMR which account for the evolving nature of the ENSO-ISMR relationship.

Project description:Seed traits are related to several ecological attributes of a plant species, including its distribution. While the storage physiology of desiccation-sensitive seeds has drawn considerable attention, their ecology has remained sidelined, particularly how the strong seasonality of precipitation in monsoonal climate affects their temporal and spatial distribution. We compiled data on seed mass, seed desiccation behavior, seed shedding, and germination periodicity in relation to monsoon and altitude for 198 native tree species of Indian Himalayas and adjoining plains to find out (1) the adaptive significance of seed mass and seed desiccation behavior in relation to monsoon and (2) the pattern of change in seed mass in relation to altitude, habitat moisture, and succession. The tree species fall into three categories with respect to seed shedding and germination periodicities: (1) species in which both seed shedding and germination are synchronized with monsoon, referred to as monsoon-synchronized (MS, 46 species); (2) species in which seed germination is synchronized with monsoon, but seeds are shed several months before monsoon, referred to as partially monsoon-synchronized (PMS, 112 species); and (3) species in which both shedding and germination occur outside of monsoon months, referred to as monsoon-desynchronized (MD, 39 species). The seed mass of MS species (1,718 mg/seed) was greater than that of PMS (627 mg/seed) and MD (1,144 mg/seed). Of the 40 species with desiccation-sensitive seeds, 45% belong to the MS category, almost similar (approx. 47%) to woody plants with desiccation-sensitive seeds in evergreen rain forests. Seed mass differed significantly as per seed desiccation behavior and successional stage. No relationship of seed mass was found with altitude alone and on the basis of seed desiccation behavior. However, seed mass trend along the altitude differed among monsoon synchronization strategies. Based on our findings, we conclude that in the predicted climate change (warming and uncertain precipitation pattern) scenario, a delay or prolonged break-spell of monsoon may adversely affect the regeneration ecology of desiccation-sensitive seed-bearing species dominant over large forest areas of monsoonal climate.

Dataset Information

Assessing reliability of regional climate projections: the case of Indian monsoon.

Publications

Assessing reliability of regional climate projections: the case of Indian monsoon.

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